Saturday Horse Racing Trends and Free Tips: 5th Oct 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in seven LIVE races.

At Redcar we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 17 years. Then at Ascot we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know that 15 of the last 17 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get going!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.00 – UK Hi-Fi Show Live Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/15 – Won over 5f before
14/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
11/15 – Rated 101 or higher
10/15 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
3/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Winning favourites
Intense Romance (11/1) won the race in 2018
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Michael Dods yard took this race 12 months ago with Intense Romance, who lines up again and can’t be fully discounted, but their other runner – DAKOTA GOLD – looks their main hope. This 5 year-old is the top-rated in the field and 13lbs higher than his stablemate but only has to give away 7lbs. He’s risen-up the ranks with a number of cracking handicap and Listed wins this season and wasn’t disgraced when a close third in a Group Three last time out. This drop back into Listed grade will help and despite having to give away 3lbs this time, he also had 1 ¾ lengths in-hand with Danzeno two runs ago at York. Of the rest, with 12 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger then Stake Acclaim (7) and the already mentioned Danzeno (8) would have this to overcome, while with 11 of the last 15 rated 101 or higher then this only gives four a plus – Dakota Gold, Danzeno, Tis Marvellous and Stake Acclaim. We’ve already ruled out two of those due to their age so the Clive Cox runner – TIS MARVELLOUS (e/w) – is the danger. This proven CD winner has been hitting the crossbar in similar Listed races of late but the return to Ascot looks a big plus – his form figures here read 4-6-4-1-2-1.

2.35 – Property Raceday Targets £3M Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

16/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
15/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Won at Listed or better class before
12/17 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
10/17 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
10/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/17 – Favourites to win
6/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/17 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 11 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Laraaib (11/2) won the race in 2018
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A fairly tight looking Group Three, where a case could be made for all seven runners. The top-rated in the field is the Andrew Balding runner Morando. He was an excellent runner-up in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and will love the soft ground. However, he’s not going to be much value and also has to give weight away being he’s already a two-time winner at this level. Add in that 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old then this 6 year-old also has this stat to overcome. Wells Farhh Go would go well on his best form but needs to recapture it. We’ve also four last time out winners in the race – Surrey Thunder, the Queen’s Sextant, Raakib Alhawa and Faylaq. Of that bunch, Sextant seems to love Ascot – his form here reads 2-1-1 – and despite running well back behind Morando at Newbury in August the drop back in trip will help and a track we know he loves is a player. Raakib Alhawa was a tidy Listed winner at Windsor last time and should have more to come – the softer ground would be a slight concern though. This looks harder than the Listed race Surrey Thunder took in France last time and Vivid Diamond, despite being consistent has only won once from her last nine starts. So that leaves us with the William Haggas-trained FAYLAQ. This 3 year-old has already won three of his seven career runs and caught the eye when going in at Kempton last time out. Yes, this step up in grade will require more but since being upped to this sort of trip he’s gone 1-1-2-1 and has also won with a bit of cut in the ground too. The Haggas yard clearly think he’s up to this level and he might just be the improver and the value horse in the race against the Balding hot-pot.

 

3.10 – bet365 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
14/17 – Won over 7f previously
12/17 – Had raced within the last 30 days
12/17 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/17 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/17 – Raced at Ayr last time out
4/17 – Favourites to win
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Won their previous race
0/17 – Filly or mare winners
The last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 11 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 11 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Raising Sand (5/1) won the race in 2018 and was third in 2017

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 18 runners so another tricky and competitive race to unravel. The draw stats has seen 7 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 8-13 (inc), so if that’s to be repeated then RIPP ORF (8), GREENSIDE (9), KEYSER SOZE (10), RAISING SAND (11), LAKE VOLTA (12) and CASANOVA (13) fit the bill. Winning form over this 7f trip is key too, while 11 of the last 17 winners were aged 3 or 4 and also carried 9-1 or less in weight. It’s hard to ignore the chances of the likes of Ripp Orf and Raising Sand, who won this race 12 months ago. Both are regulars in these sorts of big-field handicaps and with the later loving Ascot then it will be a shock if he’s no in the mix. His overall career form here reads 1-4-3-16-7-8-1-6-4-3-1, so three wins from 11 outings at the track. Soft ground is fine too, but it’s worth noting he’s also rated 12lbs higher than last year. Based on that might be worth taking on. Ripp Orf, was runner-up in the race last season and can go well again, while the consistent Kynren is another that is rarely out of the shale-up in races like this and should be in the frame again. The consistent Summerghand ran well in the Ayr Gold Cup (4th) last time and is another that is hard to ignore, but the one that ticks most of the main trends is the John Gosden-trained CASANOVA (e/w). This 3 year-old has won it’s last two in good fashion over a mile and despite being dropped to 7f the softer ground will help bring out his stamina. This Frankel gelding is still unexposed with just 5 career runs and off a rating of 97 and a weight of just 8-10 could be ahead of the handicapper still. Escobar, Bedouin’s Story and Silver Line are certainly others that can make their presence felt.

 

3.40 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

11 previous runnings
11/11 – Won over 6f previously
11/11 – Officially rated 100 or higher
10/11 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/11 – Won 4 or more times previously
9/11 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/11 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/11 – Won their previous race
3/11 – Returned a double-figure price
3/11 – Favourites to win
2/11 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 8 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Projection (2/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With the horse from stall 7 being placed in 5 of the last 8 runnings (3 wins) then DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT (e/w) might be worth risking against the two likely favourites in the race – Cape Byron and Tabdeed. This 6 year-old is yet to win this season but has been running in better races than this so should enjoy the drop back in class. The 6f trip will be fine but will love the soft ground and has won around this time of the year for the last few seasons – maybe he just prefers the autumn months! Of course, the Wokingham winner, Cape Byron, can’t be ignored either. He was highly-tried in the G1 July Cup in July but bounced back to form last time with a fair second in the G2 City Of York Stakes over 7f. With three wins from just 6 runs at Ascot then he’s another that clearly loves the place. Raucous was 4th in the Wokingham and has since improved on that with two wins to suggest he’s a player too, but Tabdeed looks the other main runner. He’s won four of his five starts, including here at Ascot, has also acted on soft ground and should have a lot more to come. He’s certainly one for the shortlist, but is still rated 4lbs below Donjuan Triumphant and is a much shorter price.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 – British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Didn’t win last time out
3/3 – Won just once before
3/3 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/3 – Favourites placed in the first three
2/3 – Had won over 1m2f before
1/3 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the three past runnings of the race so not much to go on from that aspect. However, with all three recent winners failing to win last time out there could be a pattern building up here. If that’s the case then several well-fancied runners here – Scentasia, Nearooz and Eva Maria – who all won last time out, would have this against them. The Queen’s Shrewdness has been running well this season with five top three finishes to her name and can be involved. However, the two interesting ones at bigger prices are the Oisin Murphy (GEETANJALI e/w) and Ryan Moore (GALLIC e/w) ridden runners. The former has won two of her last three over this 1m2f trip and was a close second last time at Bath over a bit further. But the drop back in trip will be a big help here as just looks as if she didn’t stay last time out. The softer ground is a small worry, but hoping it will dry out a bit before the race. Gallic is the other to consider. She faded in a Listed race at Yarmouth last time out but should find this easier and has gone oaky with cut in the ground before. Prior to that last run she was a model of consistency so if you can forgive that last showing in a better race and with Moore now in the saddle she’s surely worth another chance.

 

2.15 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
4/4 – Rated between 79-85
4/4 – Foaled Feb or later
3/4 – Won from a double-figure draw
3/4 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
3/4 – Won just one before
3/4 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
3/4 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
3/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
0/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A massive £81k up for grabs here for this auction race and despite a massive field of 28 runners the ratings suggest the James Tate runner – UNDER THE STARS – will be hard to beat. This 105-rated juvenile seems to have a load in-hand at the weights and on what she’s achieved already and the added icing on the cake is Oisin Murphy riding. We last saw her running second in the G2 Rockfel Stakes here over 7f but the drop to 6f will be fine and even though she might have a bit of traffic (27 other runners) to get through a repeat of anywhere near that effort would make her very hard to beat. Of the rest, the Jonathan Portman yard have a 29% record with their 2 year-olds at the track – he runs MILD ILLUSION, who has at least won a few times and could go well at a nice price. Richard Fahey and Richard Hannon are other yards that like to target these sorts of races – Fahey runs Trevie Fountain and Bond’s Boy, while Hannon has D Day and Aquire. Those higher up the market – Emten, Bettys Hope and Lambeth Walk look the most likely to take advantage though if the favourite has an off day.


3.25 –
Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/15 – Previous Group winners
12/15 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Rated between 113 and 119
10/15 – Previous Group One winners
8/15 – Aged 3 years-old
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/15 – French-trained winners
5/15 – Raced at Deauville last time out
4/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3)
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 12 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
Laurens (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Group One, with five proven course and distance winners in the race, plus last year’s winner Laurens too. Karl Burke’s star mare has only won the once this season but she’s never far away in here races and can go well again as she looks to become the first horse to win back-to-back Sun Chariot’s since Sahpresa, who won the race three times between 2009-2011. The return to HQ will be a plus for Laurens as her record here is 1-2-1, but the main worry would be the soft ground – if it dries out a tad to good-to-soft then that would increase her chance for me. Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last three and in I Can Fly and Hermosa has two good chance again. Of the two Ryan Moore prefers Hermosa, who was a close second to Iridessa in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out. She’s won on soft ground too and if you can ignore her Nassu flop at Glorious Goodwood in August, her record is exemplary, with 7 top two finishes from her last 8 runs. The already mentioned Iridessa would of course be a big player too – she’s a three-time Group One winner after all. However, she’s a bit of an in-and-out character and is yet to win back-to-back races. The soft ground would also be a worry so she’s overlooked. So the two that leaves me with are LAVENDER’S BLUE and VERACIOUS. The former is a lightly-raced 3 year-old form the Amanda Perrett yard, but she seems to be rapidly improving and the way she won a Group 3 at Sandown last time was her best yet. Soft ground has to be taken on trust, but her breeding (Sea The Stars) suggests she’ll be okay on it and she’s also a winner (1m) here at the Rowley Mile. Veracious is another course winner, who was a solid winner of the Falmouth Stakes in July. Ideally the ground could do with drying out a tad for her but has gone okay in soft. Oisin Murphy rides for the Stoute yard who last won this in 2014 and have four wins in total.


Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

2.55 – Racing TV Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/17 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
9/17 – Foaled in March or later
9/17 – Had won over 6f before
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Filly winners
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/17 – Trained by Stan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Tim Easterby yard have won his race twice in the last 17 years so their Vintage Times might be worth noting in the betting. However, this is another juvenile race today that looks to revolve around one horse – SUMMER SANDS. This 109-rated Richard Fahey runner gets in here with just 8-3 in weight and having run a 2 length third in the Group One Middle Park Stakes last weekend then that form is far superior to anything else on show. Soft ground might be a slight worry, but he’s gone okay on it in the past to suggest it should be fine – especially in a race that he’s only got 8-3 to carry. Of the rest, CD winner Troubador should be in the shake-up after running in the top two in all his last six runs, while Glasvegas, Dylan De Vega, Dubai Station and Desert Safari are the ones that can take advantage if the main two in the betting flop.

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