Saturday Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: 21st Sept 2019

Horse racing tips and trends

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day at the Scottish track this Saturday and the ITV cameras are there to take in four LIVE races – did you know we’ve only seen three winning favourites since 1980 in the Ayr Gold Cup?

The ITV cameras also head to Newbury to take in four races on their Dubai Duty Free card – with the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes the feature event as we get a chance to see some of the stars of the future strutting their stuff.

That’s EIGHT LIVE races in total!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get CRACKING!

 

Saturday 21st September 2019


AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


2.00 – William Hill Foundation: Uniting Against Dementia Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won over 1m before
11/12 – Won between 2-6 times before
10/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Winners from stalls 9 or lower
10/12 – Placed 4th or worse in their last race
10/12 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
9/12 – Aged 4 or older
9/12 – Returned between 7/1-14/1 in the betting
7/12 – Had run at the track before
7/12 – Rated between 89-93
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/12 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/12 – Winning favourites
Waarif (12/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The consistent Kynren is always there, or thereabouts in races like this and more of the same can be expected here. However, he’s just a horse that doesn’t seem to win enough for me and even though it will be a shock if he’s not in the frame, at 5/1 I just feel there is no value in his price. The stats suggest having winning form over at least a mile is a plus, while 10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 9 or lower. Having a recent run in the last 4 weeks is another trend to look for, while with 83% of the last 12 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight. Any Richard Fahey or Michael Dods runners should be given a lot of respect so with that in mind the Fahey runner – IRREVERENT (e/w) – might be worth chancing. Paul Hanagan, who also have a fair record in this race, has been booked to ride and with just 8-11 in weight gets in here off an attractive mark. He beat another possible runner – Smile A Mile – well last time out at Thirsk and a 3lb rise for that success looks more than fair. Add in that he’s a proven course winner, then there is a lot to like about his chance. Of the rest, two of the older brigade in the race – CLUB WEXFORD (e/w) and GULF OF POETS (e/w) – are worthy of respect too. The former is another CD winner in the race that if you can forgive it’s last run has been running well all season to suggest he can go well. Gulf Of Poets was a good second last time at Ripon and despite that run coming 3 months ago is a horse that goes well fresh and stays further than this 1m trip – that could be handy in the closing stages if he can keeps tabs with them early on.

 

2.40 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

16/16 – Carried 8-11 or more
14/16 – Aged 5 or younger
14/16 – Previous winners over 6f
13/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/16 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
12/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/16 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/16 – Finished 5th or better last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/16 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
2/16 – Winning Favourites
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018
Tatlisu won the race in 2015
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This should hopefully give us a good guide to the Gold Cup, regarding the draw. The draw stats suggest that horses draw either high of low have done best in this 25 runner race. ALL of the last 16 winners carried 8-11 or more in weight, but this year that applies to them all. 14 of the last 16 runners were aged 5 or younger though and of the 25 runners this knocks out some – Rapid Applause, Flying Pursuit, Get Knotted, Venturous, Major Valentine and Show Stealer. Heading here off the back of a good run is another thing to note as 10 of the last 16 were placed in the top 5 last time out. So, based on this the two that I’m interested in are LAHORE (e/w) and SHOW STEALER (e/w). Both are drawn high, but that’s fine as last year’s winner came from stall 23. Lahore was a head second at Thirsk last time out and gets in here off the same mark, while from his 12 career runs he’s won four and been in the frame 50% of the time. Show Stealer has been running well too and comes here having been third at Doncaster last time out. She will find this slight step up in trip a plus after running on well last time over 5 ½ furlongs and also gets in here off the same mark. Of the rest, Hyperfocus, Major Valentine and the Stoute-trained Alkaraama are others that are sure to attract interest.

 

3.15 – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
14/16 – Had never raced at Ayr before
13/16 – Previous winners over 6f
13/16 – Had won once or two times before
13/16 – Winning distance 1 length or further
12/16 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/16 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
11/16 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/16 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/16 – Winning favourites
Queen Of Bermuda (9/2 fav) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Aleneva and Al Rasmah both won well on debut so command interest, but with 12 of the last 16 winners of this race having had 3 or more runs then a bit more experience can pay off. The Archie Watson pair of Endless Joy and LAMBETH WALK tick those boxes, with the last-named coming here off a good second at Ripon last time out in a Listed race. She gets in off the same mark and prior to that had run well in the Queen Mary and Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (both G2 races). Oisin Murphy remains in the saddle too and despite being well beaten into second last time the winner of that race looks useful. Rose Of Kildare and Orlaith bring a lot of experience to the table too and should not be far away.

 

3.50 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

18/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/18 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
14/18 – Had won over 6f before
13/18 – Failed to win their last race
12/18 – Carried 9-1 or more
12/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Rated 90-101
11/18 – Came from a double-figure stall
10/18 – Had 7 or more runs that season
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Had raced at Ayr before
9/18 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
9/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/18 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Winning favourites (3 winning favs since 1980)
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
The last 10 winners came from stalls 8 or lower (4 of the last 14 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 15/1
Note: The 2019 renewal was a dead-heat

Note: The 2017 renewal was staged at Haydock

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 12 of the last 18 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old, plus carrying 9-1 or more in weight then these stats mean only a handful qualify. Add in that ALL of the last 18 winners ran in the last 6 weeks then the ones that standout are JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, SUMMERGHAND, HEY JONESY, LAUGH A MINUTE, BUFFER ZONE, BACCHUS and MAJOR JUMBO. Of that bunch the 4 year-old Buffer Zone, who comes over from Ireland, will be popular but has been backed off the boards this midweek so in a race like this doesn’t look to be much value. Yes, he could be a blot on the handicap and turn out to be much better than handicap class, but unless you were on at the bigger prices the value looks to have gone. So, of that bunch the David O’Meara runner – SUMMERGHAND (e/w) – might be the better value. This consistent five year-old was a good second in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last time out and with the winner – Dakota Gold – looking very useful that form is solid. Draw 13 will give him options to go either way and despite running 11th in the race last year that came on heavy ground. Others further down the weights to note are Gulliver, who often runs well in these big-field handicaps, Arecibo – both from the David O’Meara yard. But another from the O’Meara yard – INTISAAB (e/w) – also looks interesting. This CD winner was third at Doncaster last time out and is only a pound higher here. He’s not getting any younger at 8 years-old but was rated 9lbs higher in the ratings earlier this season so his current mark of 99 looks very attractive to say the least. Draw 7 is a plus too, while jockey Angus Villiers takes off a handy 7lbs from the saddle to make his mark look even more attractive.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.45 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

17/17 – Raced four or more times that season
15/17 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
15/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
14/17 – Won a Listed or Group race before
13/17 – Won over 5f previously
12/17 – Aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/17 – Won 4 or more times
8/17 – Previous Group race winners
6/17 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 6 winners)
6/17 – Won their last race
6/17 – Favourites
4/17 – Mare winners
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Charles Hills-trained Equilateral bounced back to winning ways last time at Doncaster in a Listed race but a tad more is needed now into a Group Three. Recent Beverley Bullet winner – Judicial is another to note and is also the only proven CD winner in the field – he should be in the mix. Keystroke, Hit The Bid and the speedy Ornate are others to consider, but it’s hard to get away form the very much in-form DAKOTA GOLD. This 5 year-old has risen up the sprinting ranks this season and heads here on a five-timer after top wins at York (3) and Ripon (1). He’s recent Listed win was another career-best so deserves his chance in this Group race and also being the top-rated in the field then should be hard to beat in his current mood.

 

2.20 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

17/17 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
16/17 – Priced 9/1 or less
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/17 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
12/17 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Raced at Newbury before
8/17 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
6/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by David Simcock (including 3 of last 4 runnings)
3/17 – Raced at York last time
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Young Rascal (5/2) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some useful middle-distance sorts on show here. Waldstern won a decent handicap at Newmarket last time out and should be in the shake-up based on that, while Pondus (2nd) and Wadilsafa (4th) put in good efforts in the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last time out and can make their presence felt. However, this is a race the David Simcock yard love to target – they won three of the last four runnings – and they look to have another big chance with DESERT ENCOUNTER. This 7 year-old actually took this pot back in 2017 and he’s back for more. He comes here in rude form too after wins at Goodwood and Windsor, while despite having to give weight away is the top-rated in the field and is also the only proven CD winner in the field. The Andrew Balding-trained Pivoine makes up the five runners and on his best form would have a squeak too.

 

2.55 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

14/17 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/17 – Raced 3 or more times
14/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
13/17 – Won over 6f previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Foaled in March or later
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/17 – Favourites (or joint) to win
8/17 – Won exactly two races before
7/17 – Won by an April foal
5/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/17 – Filly winners

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Malotru was a fine fourth in the Gimcrack last time out and that race is often a good guide for this. He was only beaten 5 lengths that day and should go well. However, with the Hannon yard having the winner of the Gimcrack they should know where they stand with their MYSTERY POWER here, who they also look after. This 2 year-old was a top winner of the Group Two Superlative Stakes at HQ back in July but failed to build on that in the Vintage Stakes last time. But the horse didn’t get the best of runs that day, while the winner – Pinatubo – is clearly a very smart sort so the form is still decent. This looks easier and with a bit more luck in-running and the fact Ryan Moore has been booked to ride is a further plus. Of the rest, Pierre Lapin did well to win on debut, while Shadn was a solid third in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time and is also a proven CD winner at the track. She gets 6lbs from the selection, but it’s worth noting that we’ve not had a filly winner of this race in the last 17 runnings. Impressor and Mr Kiki, who both won well last time out, are others to note.

 

3.30 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y ITV4

15/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
13/17 – Won at least twice previously
12/17 – Won from stall 7 or higher
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/17 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
11/17 – Won over 1m2f previously
10/17 – Won by a 4 year-old
9/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/17 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price
6/17 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/17 – Trained by Luca Cumani
4/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint, 1 Co)
Buzz (9/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The likes of Migration, Great Example and Caradoc can all go well and on their best form should go close. But this looks likely to be another for the powerful John Gosden yard with their in-form FOREST OF DEAN. This 3 year-old has won three of his last four races and was a tidy winner last time out at York. He’s only up 5lbs for that smooth success but looks the sort to have more in the locker. Johnny Drama ran well to be second last time out at York to the selection and with a slight weight pull can get a lot closer. But of those at bigger prices – HYANNA (e/w) and EXEC CHEF (e/w) – might be worth a small saver too. The former was a nice winner at Sandown – beating Migration by a neck – and if building on that can go well. While Exec Chef is the only proven CD winner in the field and despite not winning yet this season is a horse that is slipping down the ratings slowly and has been running well in defeat of late to warrant respect.

 

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