Saturday Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: 17th Aug 2019

Horse Racing Trends and Free Tips

Another busy day ahead on the horse racing front with the ITV cameras heading to Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon.

The Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes and the Group Two Hungerford Stakes are the key races at Newbury, while it’s a big day up at Ripon with the Great St Wilfrid Stakes their big race.

As always we’ve got it all covered with the key big race trends, plus our verdicts on each race.

Enjoy!

 

Saturday 17th August 2019

 

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

2.45 – Unibet Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

15/16 – Failed to win last time out
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
14/16 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
13/16 – Aged 5 or older
13/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/16 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had 3 or more career wins
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
3/16 – Trained by Tony Newcombe
1/16 – Winning favourites
My Amigo (5/1) won the race in 2018
Case Key (8/1) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race that should be sponsored by ‘Just For Men’ as it’s only for grey horses! We’ve got the 2017 winner – CASE KEY (e/w) – in the race and there’s a lot to like about his chance again. He’s rated 7lbs lower this time and gets in with just 8-5 in weight to carry. Recent runs (2nd and 3rd) also suggest he’s heading here in good order too, so another big run looks on the cards. With 12 of the last 16 winners aged 5, 6 or 7, then of the 16 runners this knocks out 11, with just Glenn Coco, Buccaneers Vault, Lucky Beggar, Case Key and Le Mange Enchante the ones with this stat on their side. Of that bunch the consistent GLENN COCO can do best of the rest. Yes, he’s got top-weight here with 9-10 to carry, but connections have booked a 7lb claimer to help. He was a close second over 7f here at the track last time too, with the drop back a furlong looking ideal after getting collared late on that day.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Denford Stud Stakes (Registered as The Washington Singer Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

15/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
14/17 – Had won a race before
13/17 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
12/17 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (5) foal
12/17 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Horses from stall 3 placed
9/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
4/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/17 – Won on their racecourse debut
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, but most are also very unexposed so it’s hard to know how much improvement they will have after their opening runs. The Richard Hannon yard won this last year so it’s interesting they run two – Sesame Birch and Sun Power. Both have already had four runs and are the two most experienced in the race. The former is also the only proven CD winner in the race. The Mark Johnston yard, who won this in 2013, also have two in the race – Frankel’s Storm and Thunderous. Both head here having won last time out and the latter is actually unbeaten 2-from-2. Pyledriver won well on debut at Salisbury but this looks harder, so the call goes to JUAN ELCANO. This Kevin Ryan runner won on debut at Haydock and wasn’t disgraced when second in the Group Two Superlative Stakes here over 7f. The form of that run makes him the clear one to beat as he’s now dropped in grade. He’s some fancy Group One entries later in the year too, so connections clearly feel he’s better than Listed level.

 

2.25 – Unibet Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

17/17 – Had won at least twice in their career
15/17 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
13/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 3-5 years-old
12/17 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
12/17 – Officially rated 110 or higher
12/17 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/17 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (6) last time out
10/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Had already won a Group race
7/17 – Had won at Newbury before
Hamada (7/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five runners here for this Group Three. The ratings suggest Durston and the hat-trick-seeking Sameem have a bit to find, but recent runs certainly suggest they are worth a crack at this level. We’ve a royal runner too, as the Queen has Sextant in the race. This 4 year-old has won three of it’s last four and is a proven course winner too. This Sir Michael Stoute runner will also have Ryan Moore riding, so a big run looks on the cards. The only slight niggle is that this will be the furthest he’s gone, and he’s also rated 10lbs inferior to the Andrew Balding runner – MORANDO. This 6 year-old is also a proven course winner and will find this drop in grade much more to his liking. He’s been running in top Group One and Two races this season, but the last time he dropped to this level he dotted-up at Chester. Any more rain will be fine too and even though he’s got to give weight away all round the ratings suggest he’s still a big player. Technician is worth a mention too as he gets 12lbs from the selection, which should see him get close. The step up in trip is a slight unknown though and so far this season he’s been beaten three times at this level so does have a bit to prove.

 

3.00 – Unibet Handicap Cl3 7f ITV

15/17 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
15/17 – Had won at least twice during their career
13/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance 1 length or shorter
12/17 – Carried 9-1 or more
10/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/17 – Drawn in stalls 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15
3/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Squats (17/2) won the race in 2017 and 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Not as big a field as this race tends to attract so the draw and weight trends are out the window really. 15 of the last 17 winners, however, were aged 3,4 or 5 years-old so this puts a line through George William and Sanaadh, who are both 6 years-old. Ripp Orf seems to running into form, but is often seen to best effect in much bigger fields. We can also expect the Godolphin runner – Piece Of History – to have come on a lot for it’s last run as that came off a break. Ryan Moore also catches the eye booked to ride Breath Of Air for Roger Charlton, but the safe call for me here is to side with the only recent winner in the field – GRAPHITE STORM. Yes, he only got home by a head last time out at Newmarket but is up just 3lbs for that and looks worth a crack at this slightly better level. He was also a fair third in this race 12 months ago, off a 3lb higher mark, and has form with cut in the ground.

 

3.35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
15/17 – Had won a Listed (6) or Group (9) race before
14/17 – Had won over this 7f trip before
14/17 – Officially rated 110 or more
14/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
13/17 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
9/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/17 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
The last 10 winners were all draw 6 or lower
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent renewal, but it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner – SIR DANCEALOT. This 5 year-old has taken exactly the same route as 12 months ago as he also won the same Goodwood race last month that he took last year too. He beat another of today’s runners – Hey Gaman – by a length at Goodwood last time so can hopefully have the measure of that one again here too. It won’t be easy having to give a bit of weight away this time – Hey Gaman is 3lbs better off – but this race would have been a firm target all season and feel be can land the double-double. Of the rest, Jersey Stakes winner – Space Traveller – has a squeak getting 8lbs off the selection but was almost 4 lengths behind him last time. Glorious Journey, Donjuan Triumpant and Flaming Spear also have the form to go well, but look to have a bit to prove at the moment, so the danger can come from SAFE VOYAGE, who was a good third in the Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh last time. He’s got form with give and impressed when winning well at Haydock two runs back.

 

RIPON Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – William Hill Silver Trohpy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) Cl2 6f ITV

7/7 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/7 – Previous winners over 6f
7/7 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
7/7 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
7/7 – Returned between 6/1 and 16/1
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Won between 3-4 times before
5/6 – Winning distance head or shorter
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 13 or higher
4/6 – Rated between 87-93
2/6 – Has won at Ripon before
0/6 – Winning favourites
Quick Look won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 years is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race for those that didn’t make it into the main Great St Wilfrid. Only seven years of past trends, but with ALL recent winners aged 4-6 years-old then this is a decent trend building up. Of the 20 runners there are 8 that fall down – Shepherd’s Purse, Whataguy, Orion’s Bow, Mark’s Choice, Pipers Note, Royal Brave, Yousini and Growl. All seven also carried 9-1 or more, while had run in the last 5 weeks too. With that in mind the ones I like here are the two Julie Camacho runners – DALTON (e/w) and ROYAL PROSPECT (e/w). The former looks to be running into form after a good third here last time out and gets in here off the same mark. He handles a bit of cut and draw 14 looks ideal. Royal Prospect is the only recent winner in the field, after winning at Redcar in July. He’s up just 3lbs for that and acts on any ground. Drawn wide in 12 looks perfect and has been freshened-up with 4 weeks off. Of the rest, Flying Pursuit and Hyperfocus could easily have a say for the Tim Easterby yard if bouncing back to form.

 

3.15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/17 – Previous winners over 6f
14/17 – Didn’t win last time out
13/17 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
9/17 – Had run at Ripon before (3 won)
7/17 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/17 – Aged 4 years-old
4/17 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 6 years)
3/17 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 8)
3/17 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 6)
1/17 – Aged 3 years-old
Gunmetal won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 5 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 12.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s winner – Gunmetal – will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since 2012, but draw 3 might not be ideal (won from 19 last year) and he’s 4lbs higher this time. We’ve also got last year’s runner-up DAKOTA GOLD (e/w) in the race and despite being 8lbs higher this year, this Michael Dods runner has a better draw in 15. He also heads here in top form after winning well at York last time and is only 2lbs higher for that success. Any further rain is fine too. The David O’Meara yard have won this race three times since 2011, so their runners – Muscika, Intisaab, Gulliver and Summerghand – can’t be overlooked. Of that bunch, the consistent Muscika should go well, but draw 6 makes life hard. Horses from stall one have a poor record, so course and distance winner – Citron Major – is overlooked. But the other one that might be worth an interest is REPUTATION (e/w). This Ruth Carr-trained 6 year-old has been handed draw 11, which should just about be okay. Ignore the last run as reared at the start, but prior to that had run well in the three runs at HQ (two) and Haydock. He’s also a proven CD winner – dotted-up by 3 lengths here back in April – and has a better draw than when running 9th in this 12 months ago.

 

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