Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 18th Nov 2017

Cheltenham and Lingfield horse racing tips and trends

One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we’ve day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting – four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the BetVictor Gold Cup, while we’ve also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get  GOING!

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 


12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RUK

12/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
9/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
9/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Won last time out
8/12 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/12 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
8/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
6/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/12 – German bred
3/12 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/12 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/12 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson yard last won this race in 2013 and in Apple’s Shakira they could have another useful one on their hands. This 3 year-old filly will be making her British debut after winning her only start when trained in France. She gets a handy 5lbs from the others and is clearly well-respected coming from this powerful stable and is certainly one for the shortlist. She actually used to be trained by Emmanuel Clayeux in France, who has Eh Georges entered so will have a bit of an idea where he stands with the Henderson runner. However, trainer Philip Hobbs has by far the best recent record in this race – winning 3 of the last 12 renewals – so their entry GUMBALL gets the call. He was a decent 8 length winner last time out at Chepstow and there should be more to come too from this 3 year-old – if progressing in the same way should have a big season on the horizon.

 

1.15 – mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RUK

12/12 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/12 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
9/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
9/12 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
7/12 – Aged 6 years-old
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) last time out
6/12 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase (no winners)
6/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by David Pipe
2/12 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 7/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the three runners here which is not great, but having said that all seem to have a squeak. The Paul Nicholls-trained Black Corton is sure to be popular with a string of four wins next to his name, including a course and distance win here too. He gets on well with Bryony Frost, who rides again, and despite this looking his hardest task to date is respected. Ballyoptic represents the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard that have won this race with similar sorts in 2008 and 2009, plus caught the eye when winning by 13 lengths last time at Exeter. He’s proven over this trip and with Richard Johnson riding is sure to be thereabouts. But the pick here is WEST APPROACH. Running in for the same connections as last year’s winner – Thistlecrack – this Colin Tizzard runner looks the one to beat on these terms. He was a 160+ rated hurdler and has already transferred that form to the bigger obstacles when winning well at Ffos Las. Yes, he jumped a bit left that day, but that won’t be too much of an issue here, while despite not winning over this trip yet has run well over it (hurdles) so no issues on that score either. Add in some fair hurdles form at the track then everything points to a big run.

1.50 – BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV

14/15 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
13/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 8 or younger
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/15  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
8/15 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Ran within the last month
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/15  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 12 of the last 15 winners of this race aged 8 or younger then despite being one of the fancied runners – Three Faces West – has this trend to overcome. This Philip Hobbs runner is lightly-raced though despite his age with just 11 career outings and having won three of his last four starts then is still a horse punters will be keen to support. The Pipe, Nicholls and Tizzard camps have by-far the best recent records in the race with six wins between them in the last 15 years so anything that trio send to post should be respected – Nicholls runs Vincente, while Tizzard has Sizing Codelco entered. Doing Fine ran well here last time when third of 16 to Cogry and off the same mark is certainly respected based on that. He’s a horse that stays this trip well and likes to hunt round at the back during the early part of his races and then come late. He’s a past course winner too and barring accidents looks a big player, but at 9 years-old is another that falls down on the key age trend. PREMIER BOND (e/w) ran a cracker to be third in the Kim Muir here back in March and despite being pulled up next time in the Scottish National can be forgiven that one poor run. At 7 years-old there should be more on offer and with proven track experience then he’s another that ticks a lot of the boxes. But the Paul Nicholls-trained Sam Winner too this race with 11-12 to carry back in 2014 so despite that being a lot of weight I think MINELLA ROCCO (e/w) can make a bold claim with that burden too. This 7 year-old was an excellent runner-up in the Gold Cup here last season and back into a handicap should find this a lot easier. He blew the cobwebs away at Punchestown last month so should be spot-on for this, while his recent Cheltenham record here reads a decent 1-3-2. Barry Geraghty is an obvious plus in the saddle for this Jonjo O’Neill runner and having won over 4m here at the track in the past then staying certainly won’t be an issue either.

 

2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
14/15 – Won by a UK-based trainer
12/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
10/15 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (2)
9/15 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 5 carried 10-13 or more)
9/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
8/15 – Aged 7 years-old
8/15 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
7/15 – Placed favourites
5/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 8 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 32 runners
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 17/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the main event on the second day and we’ve another super-tough renewal. But plenty of key trends to apply to hopefully help whittle down the 18 runners. Surprisingly it’s been a race that powerful trainer Nicky Henderson hasn’t done too well in with just one win (2013, Fondmont) and that poor run looks set to continue this year with Days Of Heaven and Theinval only looking to have outside chances. In contrast, the Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe yards have a much better race with a massive 10 winners between them in the last 15 years. Nicholls has two decent chances too with Le Prezien, who was only just touched off here last month and the hat-trick seeking Romain De Senam so are two for the shortlist. Twiston-Davies has Splash Of Ginge entered, but his better chance looks to be Foxtail Hill, who battled on bravely to conqueror the already-mentioned Le Prezien last time and based on that running there should not be a lot between them. The Irish also don’t have a great record so their two runners – Tully East and Lake Takapuna – are swerved, but the David Pipe team to have another big-looking chance in a race they’ve farmed in recent years with STARCHITECT. (e/w) This 6 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and got back to winning ways last time out when winning at Stratford. A 4lb rise for that win doesn’t look harsh and despite this being a step up in grade still looks well-treated at a track he rarely runs a bad race at – his recent runs here (most in similar big fields) read well 4-5-5-5. Ballyalton is another to consider from the shrewd Ian Williams team, but the second pick is the Jamie Snowden-trained DOUBLE TREASURE (e/w). This 6 year-old went into many a notebook last time when beating Two Taffs in a decent race over this course and distance, plus there should be more to come. It was taking how he seemed to be beaten after hitting a flat spot about a mile out, only to shrug that off and finish the race strongly. A 13lb hike in the ratings looks a tad harsh, but having won his last 4 races over fences is clearly a horse that is improving rapidly and looks to be going the same way as the stables Present View, that was a decent servant for them.

 

3.00 – Regulatory Finance Solutions Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

13/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
12/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/15 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
11/15 – Officially rated 126 to 137
11/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/15 – Irish bred
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Ran within the last month
6/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/15 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/15 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Anteros won the race last season

JUICESTORM VERDICT: THOMAS CAMPBELL was an easy winner here last time out at the October meeting and despite a 10lb rise for that connections have offset most of it with James Bowen’s 7lb claim. He won with a bit more to spare than the 2 ¼ lengths at the mine that day and still only 5 years-old then there should be a lot more to come. He was also fifth (of 22) in the Martin Pipe race here last March, plus won here again back in October 16, meaning he’s 2 from 3 at the track. Of the rest, the Kim Bailey team are having a good time of it of late so their Rocky’s Treasure, despite having his first run for 223 days has to be considered after winning his last two. More is needed in this higher grade, but is another potential improver. If running the Pipe-trained Dell’Arca is another that will be very popular after an easy win at Newbury last week. But a 10lb rise for that makes life harder, plus Thomas Campbell had him back in fourth last time then went head-to-head in October. So, the danger to the selection might come from last year’s winner – ANTEROS (e/w). This 9 year-old fell last time out in the Thomas Campbell race when held at the time, but being he’s only 3lbs higher than 12 months ago then he has to be considered after coming here having taken a similar route to last year too.

 

3.30 – Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

11/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price
6/12 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/12 – Had run at Cheltenham before
6/12 – Irish bred winners
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – French bred winners
2/12 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1
2 of the last 5 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 9 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 11 of the last 12 winners of this race aged 5 or 6 years-old then this looks the main trend to take into this race, while with 10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top 4 last time out this is another key stat to note. It’s also been a good guide race for the Cheltenham Festival with 50% of the last 12 winners going onto finish in the top 4 there in March. Ahead Of The Curve, Coole Cody and Follow The Bear are three horses that tick more trends than not, but the most interesting one for me is the Ben Pauling-trained RED INDIAN (e/w). This 5 year-old is yet to finish out of the top two from his three hurdles starts (1 win) and has gone well fresh in the last so the 189 day break isn’t too much of a worry. Nico De Boinville is a plus in the saddle and the step up in trip and ground is a further positive. Of the rest, the consistent Ahead Of The Curve shouldn’t be far away, while the unexposed Paul Nicholls runner – COUP DE PINCEAU – looks likely to have more to come after just a handful of decent runs.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

10/11 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Rated between 103 and 112
8/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/11 – Placed last time out
8/11 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/11 – Won between 1-4 times before
7/11 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average SP in the last 11 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course and distance winners Battalion and Petite Jack command respect, while Ayrad and Victory Bond are certainly big players too. However, the call here is for BOYNTON. This 3 year-old is closely-matched with Victory Bond after they finished first and second at a race at Chelmsford two starts back. But on these terms and getting 3lbs from Victory Bond here then I’ll take Boynton to reverse the form for the Godolphin team that have a fair record in this race too.

 

3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

10/10 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
9/10 – Aged 4 or older
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Won 5 or more times before
7/10 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Magical Memory will be a popular choice here, but, for me, I’d prefer it if the race was on the turf if backing him. Yes, he’s yet to race on the AW and there is every chance it will suit having won on good-to-firm on the grass, but in a race of this nature I’d prefer to have course form in the book. A similar thing applies to Gifted Master, who has only had one run on the AW. So, looking at those with proven form here at the track then Royal Birth, Mythmaker and Spring Loaded are the three that stand out. The last-named – SPRING LOADED (e/w) – makes most appeal of those mentioned and despite being a beaten favourite last time out at Doncaster was only eaten 4 lengths over a trip that was probably on the sharp side. Back up to 6f here will help and with 8 AW wins from 14, plus 13 top three finishes on the sand surfaces then it will be a surprise if this popular grey isn’t in the frame at worse.

OddsMonkey
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