Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 13th Oct 2018

York and Newmarket Horse Racing Tips

Some more nice winners last week so we’ll be looking for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, for the third Saturday in a row, and York, to take in seven LIVE races in total.

At HQ its the second day of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know that 13 of the last 16 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9-1 or less and had also raced in the last 2 months?

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy – a race that has seen ALL of the last 15 winners having raced in the last 4 weeks.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1.50 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
10/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Won no more than twice before
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/11 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/11 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/11 – Winners from stall 1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the seven runners heading to post here but with Aidan O’Brien having two of those and also being responsible for the winner last year then this pair – Norway and SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE – look sure to play a big part. Norway is the lesser exposed of the two and got off the mark last time with a nice win at Naas (6 ¼ lengths) so could be anything, but he was also beaten 4 lengths the time before by his stablemate here so would still have a bit to find. Sydney Opera House was a fine second in the Royal Lodge here a few weeks ago and with this being a drop in grade to Listed company then his chance is an obvious one. The step up from 1m to 1m2f looks a plus too as he stayed on well that day and we also know he handles the track. Arc heroes Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up again here too with Waldstern, but he was beaten at odds on last time in a much lower graded race than this so would need to bounce back. I’ll Have Another Go and Flying Dragon are others to note, while Nate The Great was an easy winner last time over the extended mile at Musselburgh so if building on that can go well too. However, I’ll stick with O’Brien following up last year’s success in the race.

2.25 – Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

13/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/13 – Had raced at least twice before
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Godolphin winners
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
2/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/13 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-5

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some more potential stars of the future on show here. The powerful Aidan O’Brien, who have a cracking 26% strike-rate with their 2 year-olds here, camp send over three so clearly mean business – Circus Maximus, Magna Grecia and Western Australia. Of that trio, Western Australia probably sets the standard on what we’ve seen on the track so far after running fourth in a Group Two in Ireland last time. However, the other two head here off the back of wins and being lesser exposed could have more scope for improvement – it’s probably dangerous to rule any of them out. Kadar and the hat-trick seeking Massam are others to note, as is the William Haggas-trained Boerhan, but the yard are only 5% with their juveniles at the track. But the interesting one is surely the French raider – PERSIAN KING – who comes over from the Andre Fabre team. He’s won his last two in the style of an improving sort and is probably not coming over for a day trip. The yard often does well with their raiders to the track and with only three career outings should have more to offer. Regular rider, Pierre-Charles Boudot also makes the trip over.

 

3.00 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

16/16 – Raced at least 3 times that season
14/16 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
14/16 – Placed in their last race
12/16 – Won over 7f previously
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Won at least 3 times previously
11/16 – Won their last race
11/16 – Won a Group race previously
10/16 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/16 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/16 – Foaled in either  Feb or March
7/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/16 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
5/16 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/16 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/16 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/16 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/16 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained the last three winners

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Aidan O’Brien has trained the last three winners of the Dewhurst but he might have to settle for minor honours this year despite having three of the seven runners. Anthony Van Dyck, Christmas and Mohawk are his runners and of that trio Anthony Van Dyck, who was a fine second in the Group One National Stakes last time out, and recent course winner (Royal Lodge), Mohawk, are certainly big players on what we’ve seen recently. There are some big challengers from the home-based yards this season though. Sir Michael Stoute runs his unbeaten Sangarius, who was a very impressive winner of a Listed race at Doncaster last time out and must surely be involved if building on that. Advertise is another to note after his Group One Phoenix Stakes success last time out, but the call here has to be TOO DARN HOT. This Gosden-trained colt landed the Champagne Stakes last time out at Doncaster in eye-catching fashion and is so far 3-from-3. This will be her first run at the track but there is no reason to think it won’t suit and having won over a mile then she also stays further than this 7f trip. Frankie is the icing on the cake and can hopefully provide his pal – Gosden – with his first win in the Dewhurst.

 

3.40 – Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

15/16 – Aged 4 or older
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
13/16 – Had run within the last 2 months
13/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/16 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/16 – Aged 5 or older
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/16 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/16 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/16 – Had run at the track before
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Won by a NH trainer
4/16 – Winning mares
3/16 – Winners from stall 1
3/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 23/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another big field to unravel here for the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap. A lot of key trends to note too, like 15 of the last 16 winners being aged 4 or older, while 13 of the last 16 had raced in the last 2 months and also carried 9st-1lb or less in weight. Leading jockey, Silvestre de Sousa is also a man to note as the pocket Brazilian has ridden three of the last five winners, including the last two. He rides the Neil Mulholland-trained VIS A VIS (e/w). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends too and gets in with just 8st 9lbs to carry. He’s won his last two, including beating another of today’s rivals – Just In Time – by an easy 2 ¾ lengths last time out at Kempton. He’s been freshened up for this with 2 months off and despite being 8lbs higher here looks a progressive stayer that should have more to come. The Willie Mullins yard are also out in force with the likes of Stratum, Limini, Low Sun, Whiskey Sour and Uradel coming over and all four have big chances. Stratum was unlucky in-running in the Ebor last time out and would have surely be involved that day had he not been hampered a few furlongs out. He’s a huge player, but poor value in a race like this. Limini is a big name in the jumping world but on the flat is also making her name for herself after winning 4 times from 9 starts and has also only been out of the frame once from her 9 runs on the level. She looks set to play a big part too. Stars Over The Sea was an easy winner of the trial to this race last month but is up 4lbs for that and might not be able to get an easy lead this time. So, the other three at bigger prices that interest me are PRECIOUS RAMOTSWE (e/w), UBER COOL (e/w) and HERE AND NOW (e/w). The first-named is sure to be popular with Gosden and Dettori teaming up again. She adds a bit of class to the race after running well in Group company the last three times and despite her big weight could be interesting now upped in trip. She’s only had 8 career runs so will have more to come and even though the 2m2f trip is a big unknown, connections must feel she’ll get it. The yard won the Ebor for the first time this season and will be looking for another first in this race. Uber Cool comes from the Jane Chapple-Hyam yard and heads here having won three of his last four. He found the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Ascot in June a bit too far (2m5f) but returned to win well at Yarmouth last month and with only 8st 11lbs gets in here with a nice racing weight. Finally, Here And Now was a fair fourth at Chester last time out but I think the key to him is the step back up in trip. He won well the time before at York over 2m after travelling really well through the race and I expect the long straight to suit him a lot better than the tight turns of Chester did last time out. Add in that the Ralph Beckett team are in good order at the moment then everything looks in place for a good run.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

2.05 – Download The Coral App Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just five previous running
No winning favourite yet
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 3 years-old
All 5 previous winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 23% record with this 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Not many recent runnings of this race but it’s been a contest that the 3 year-olds have done well in recently – winning three of the last five. With that in mind then previous course and distance winner – Exhort – can’t be discounted but has rather lost his way a bit in recent runs so would need to bounce back. Majboor has won four of his last five and is another to note, while the Ralph Beckett and William Haggas yards are going well at the moment so their runners – Pacify and My Lord And Master – are worth a second glance. However, it might be worth taking a chance on the Tom Dascombe runner here – FINNISTON FARM (e/w). The yard has a decent 23% record with their 3 year-olds at the track and this one also heads here off the back of a good win at Haydock. A 3lb rise for that win looks fair enough, while with it coming over 1m4f then his proven stamina is sure to be made full use of.

 

2.40 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15– Had raced within the last month
14/15 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
13/15 – Foaled in March or later
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/15 – Had never raced at York before
11/15 – Had won over 6f before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
6/15 – Ran at either Redcar (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Winners from stall 2
4/15 – Filly winners
3/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15 – Ridden by David Allen

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Dave Dexter and Vintage Brut are closely-matched based on that pair running first and second at Ayr last month. Dave Dexter came out on top that day and with the Tim Easterby runner – Vintage Brut – flopping last week at Redcar then Dave Dexter for the in-form Ralph Beckett camp is preferred. Easterby is also only 3 from 57 with his 2 year-olds here. Other yards that don’t do that well with their juveniles at the track are David O’Meara (0 from 28) and Mick Channon (2 from 31) so their runners Fastman and Jungle Inthebungle are overlooked. The Jeremy Noseda yard look to have a good chance though with GARRUS, who was last seen running a fair fourth in the Group Two Mill Reef. This drop to Listed company will help and Jamie Spencer is an eye-catching jockey booking. Of the rest, the 104-rated Space Traveller also has decent form to go well and it’s interesting that connections reach for the first-time blinkers too. He’s from the Richard Fahey yard, who also run Cosmic Law – both are ones for the shortlist as the yard look to follow-up their 2015 win in this race.

 

 

3.15 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
15/15 – Had won at least 3 races before
14/15 – Had run at York before
14/15 – Had won a race over 6f before
13/15 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
11/15 – Aged 5 or younger
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Rated between 92 and 98
8/15 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/15 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/15 – Filly or mare winners
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some decent trends here and plenty of familiar faces. With 11 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger then this will help narrow down the 20 runners, while 14 of the last 15 winners had raced at York in the past. With that in mind the Tim Easterby runner – FLYING PURSUIT (e/w) – gets the nod. This 5 year-old was last seen running third in the Ayr Gold Cup off this mark but did well that day as had to race on her own. He led the far side and was only really done by the draw. With course and distance winning form here and racing off the same mark then another big run looks on the cards for this consistent sprinter. Regular rider Rachel Richardson continues in the saddle. Al Qahwa was runner-up in that Ayr Gold Cup so is another to note, while of those at bigger prices TOMMY TAYLOR (e/w) and BRIAN THE SNAIL (e/w) are worth small savers off light weights. Tommy Taylor is another course and distance winner here and despite flopping in the Ayr Gold Cup (15th) last time the better ground will suit and the time before that run was a close second at Ascot. He’s on a good mark and Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride – he rode him at Ascot two runs ago. Brian The Snail has failed to fulfil his potential but is capable of popping up in a race like this. The Fahey yard have often done well in this race too and it’s Paul Hanagan will be a help in the saddle – he rides the horse for the first time. A 9th in the Ayr Gold Cup was an okay recent run but is another that should enjoy the quicker ground. He won well at Doncaster earlier this season off a pound higher rating so is more than capable on his day so might just be worth chancing for small stakes.

 

 

 

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