Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 13th Aug 2017

Ascot Shergar Cup tips

The ITV4 cameras head to Ascot racecourse for their unique Shergar Cup meeting – this popular fixture splits the horses in each race into four teams – Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, Rest Of The World and Girls – with each horse being allocated team points based on their finishing positons.

The Teams:

Europe: Adrie De Vries ©, Umberto Rispoli, Alexander Pietsch
Girls: Emma-Jayne Wilson ©, Michelle Payne, Hayley Turner
Rest Of The World: Kerrin McEvoy ©, Anthony Delpech, Keita Tosaki
Great Britain & Ireland: Jamie Spencer ©, Fran Berry, Neil Callan

While the ITV cameras are also at Newmarket and HaydockLike all big race days we’ve got all the LIVE ITV4 race trends to help narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.  

 

Saturday 13th August 2017


ASCOT Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

 

13:05 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

9/9 – Failed to win their last race
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/9 – Raced at Ascot previously
8/9 – Carried 9-3 or more weight
8/9 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/9 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
7/9 – Won at least 3 times in their career
6/9 – Favourites  placed
5/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/9 – Had won over 5f previously
4/9 – Winning distance – 1 or more lengths
4/9 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/9 – Trained by Robert Cowell (including 2 of the last 3 runnings)
2/9 – Won by the Andrew Balding yard
2 of the last 9 winners came from stall 11
In Salutem (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 8 of the last 9 winners of this race aged 4 or 5 years-old then we are going to pin our hopes on this trend continuing with just Willytheconconqueror (4), Doc Sportello (5), Stake Acclaim (5) and Hakam (5) fitting the bill. The last-named is a reserve so might not even get in the race, so it’s best to focus on the other three. All of the last 9 winners failed to win last time out too – but all of the trio fit the bill here. 8 of the last 9 winners had raced at Ascot before so of the three that’s a negative for Doc Sportello, who makes his debut for the Ton y Carroll camp. So that leaves us with WILLYTHECONQUEROR (e/w) and STAKE ACCLAIM (e/w). The first-named has been running well without winning in Group races and was actually on beaten 8 lengths behind the classy Battaash and Lady Aurelia this season in the Sprint Stakes and the King’s Stand Stakes – he should find this a lot easier. Stake Acclaim also did okay last time when only beaten 5 lengths in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood. He’s a pound lower here and will have Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Of the rest, the Robert Cowell yard have a decent record in the race so their Green Door is also respected.

1.40 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) Cl2 2m ITV4

12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/13 – Carried 8-13 or more
11/13 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
10/13 – Rated between 86-94
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Had won between 2-5 times before (flat)
10/13 – Had raced at the track before
10/13 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Goodwood (5) last time out
9/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/13 – Trained by Ian Williams
1/13 – Won last time out
Arch Villain (25/1) won the race in 2016
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 9
Horses from stall 9 placed in the top 3 in 6 of the last 10 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been another good race for 4 and 5 years-olds, with 10 of the last 13 from that age group winning this – Cosmeli (4), Swashbuckle (4), Graceland (5), Euchen Glen (4), Wolfcatcher (5) and Fleeting Spirit (4) fit the bill here. 11 of the last 13 winners had also raced in the last few weeks so Cosmeli, Gavlar, Wolfcatcher, Berrahri and Angel Gabrial tick that particular trend and are worth considering. The horse from stall 9 has won three times in the last 8 runnings so the Andrew Balding-trained Swashbuckle, who was a good winner at Salisbury last time out, has this positive trend on it’s side, but with the Ian William yard having a decent record in the race then their two runners – WOLFCATCHER (e/w) and BYRON FLYER (e/w) are the call. The first-named will be ridden by Hayley Turner for the girls and after two fair runs here at the track this season should now be spot-on for this. He’s down 3lbs from that last run and won’t mind it if the ground remains on the soft side. Williams other runner – Byron Flyer – has been runner-up the last twice so clearly heads here in decent order too. Yes, he’s up another 2lbs for his recent neck second at York, but with just 4 career runs on the flat (11 over hurdles) there should be more to come from this 6 year-old on the level.

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Officially rated between 87-94
11/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Won between 1-4 times previously
11/13 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
11/13 – Won over 1m3f (or further) previously
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
6/13 – Had run at Ascot previously
6/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/13 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
2/13 – Favourites that won
Mistiroc (12/1) won the race in 2016
No winners from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With a stonking 9 of the last 11 winners of this race coming from stalls 5 to 8 then this looks a good place to start. The horses in question from these draws are Manjaam (5), Jacob Cats (6), Kapstadt (7) and Farquhar (8). However, the last-named is a reserve at the time of writing so it’s better to focus on the other three. With ALL of the last 13 winners aged 6 or younger then that’s not great news for Jacob Cats (8) and Kapstadt (7), so it might be worth chancing the Ed Dunlop-trained 4 year-old MANJAAM (e/w) here. This horse is a past course and distance winner here and despite running down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes here in June has since been gelded, while it’s interesting connection reach for the first-time cheekpieces. Aussie jockey, Kerrin McEvoy gets the ride, while 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 years-old and 3 of the last 11 came from stall 5. Of the rest, GAWDAWPALIN (e/w) is the only other course and distance winner in the line-up and heads here off a good win here last time on his first run since being gelded. He’s only up 3lbs and Jamie Spencer rides. Niblawi and Mukhayyam are others to note after coming here off the back of good recent runs.

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

13/13 – Won over at least a mile before
13/13 – Failed to win last time out
13/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Rated between 92-100
12/13 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
10/13 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/13 – Had run at Ascot before
4/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/13 – Winning favourites
Early Morning (6/1) won the race in 2017
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 1
10 or the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Harry Dunlop’s 6 year-old Early Morning took this race 12 months ago and can be expected to make a bold bid from the front again. This grey is only 2lbs higher than 12 months ago and should not be far away, but might have preferred the ground to be on the quicker side. 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old though, so, with that in mind, I’m going to focus on Manson, Leader Writer, Raising Sands, Nicholas T and Medburn Dream, but with the last-named being a reserve at the moment then we’ll have to see if he gets into the race. All of the last 13 winners failed to win last time out too, while the same amount had raced in the last 5 weeks. So, the one that ticks a lot of the key trends is MANSON (e/w). This 4 year-old was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths last time out at Sandown in a similar graded race and actually gets in here off a pound lower. Track and ground will be fine and actually stays further than this 1m trip which could come in handy in the closing stages. Of the rest, Breakable is the only last-time out winner in the field so is sure to be popular, but as I’ve already mentioned all of the last 13 winners came here having not won last time out.

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl3 1m4f – ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/8 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
6/8 – Won over 1m2f or further previously
6/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Officially rated between 84-90
6/8 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
4/8 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/8 – F8vourites placed
2/8 – Favourites that won
2/7 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Danehill Kodiac (10/1) won the race in 2016
6 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8 (2 each)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Mark Johnston has a decent record in this race so his runners Bear Valley and Star Of The East (reserve) command respect – especially the first-named BEAR VALLEY (e/w), who could run better than his odds suggest. He’ll be coming out of stall 5 and that draw has been responsible for two of the last 8 winners. Yes, his last three runs have been a bit below par, but they’ve been in tough handicaps and on a variety of different ground. He’ll also probably want the conditions to dry out a bit, but he’s back down to the mark that saw him run a decent third in the King George V Stakes in June at the Royal Meeting – that form would make him a big player. Recent winners – Kasperenko, Contango, Appointed and Glenys The Menace are others that will be popular and clearly head here in decent form. But the Godolphin horse HOLD SWAY is the other horse of interest. Hayley Turner rides this 3 year-old, who looks well worth a first try over this 1m4f trip. He was last seen just last week at Glorious Goodwood when running a fair 5th of 13 in a Class 2 Handicap over 1m2f. He plugged on well that day and it’s interesting connections now reach for the first-time blinkers to try and eke out a bit more improvement.

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl2 6f ITV4

13/13 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
12/13 – Ran within the last 4-5 weeks
12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting market
11/13 – Won between 2-3 times previously
11/13 – Won over 6f previously
11/13 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
9/13 – Officially rated between 86-94
9/13 – Came from the top three in the betting market
9/13 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
9/13 – Favourites placed
6/13 – Had run at Ascot previously
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Won by the Roger Charlton yard
3/13 – Winning Favourites
Kadrizzi (6/1) won the race in 2016
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 11 of the last 13 winners having won before over 6f then surprisingly of the 10 runners this is a negative for four horses – Megan Lily, Bohemian Flame, Lualiwa and Repton. 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 86-94, while 12 of the last 13 had raced in the last 4-5 weeks. Taking those into account the Kevin Ryan-trained LUALIWA and the Richard Fahey-trained PRIVATE MATTER (e/w) catch the eye. The first-named will be popular are wins at Chester and York so heads here on a three-timer and off just 6lbs higher than last time there could be more to come. He acts on most ground and despite having not won over this 6f trip I think the fact he’s won over further will be a plus here on this stiffer track and on soft ground, so am, therefore, prepared to ignore the distance trend for him. Private Matter hasn’t really fulfilled the early promise he showed as a 2 year-old, but has been dropped again in the ratings and is starting to look very well-handicapped. The first-time hood is interesting too, while Hayley Turner is a plus in the saddle.

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

 

1.55 – Betfred Haydock Park Ladies´ Trophy Handicap (Pro-Am Lady Riders´ Race) Cl3 1m3f200y ITV4

1 previous running
I Am Not Here (7/2) won the race in 2016
Trainer Brian Elison won the race in 2016
Jockey Miss Emma Sayer won the race in 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A lady riders’ race here, but with just one previous running then there is not much to go on based on the past trends. However, trainer Tom Dascombe has by far the best strike-rate on offer from the yards on show (19%), so his runner AZARI (e/w) gets the nod. This 5 year-old gets in here with top-weight, but that is for a reason – he’s the highest-rated in the field. He’s got a bit to prove based on his recent run at York, but this is a drop back in grade and if you can forgive that effort his last three outings read a decent 1-3-2. Zubayr will be popular with Paul Nicholls and daughter Megan teaming up, while the experienced Serena Brotherton is an eye-catching jockey booking for the Alan King-trained William Hunter. But jockey Rachael Richardson did well in the week in a ladies’ night up at Carlisle and so her mount DANCE KING (e/w) is the second runner to note. This 7 year-old has been running well all season and comes here off the back of a good win at Carlisle. He’s up just 3lbs for that and despite running down the field in this race 12 months ago is now a pound lower.

 

2.30 – Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f95y ITV4

14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/14 – Yet to run at Haydock
12/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Won over 1m2f or further
12/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
12/14 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Won a Listed or better class race before
10/14 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
10/14 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
10/14 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
9/14 – Won 3 or more times during their career
9/14 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished unplaced in their last race
4/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/14 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Royal Artillery (10/1) won the race in 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 14 winners aged 5 or younger then, of the 13 runners, this actually only leaves 8. In fact, 12 of the last 14 winners were aged either 3 or 5 years-old. The Stoute and Johnston yards have won four of the last 14 runnings between them so their Autocratic (Stoute) and Frankuus (Johnston) will be looking to add to those records and both look likely to play big roles 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at least three times previously that season so this is another useful trend. So, all that in mind the 3 year-old LARAAIB looks interesting from the Owen Burrows yard. This horse is actually unbeaten from three runs and being a 3 year-old gets weight from the older horses. She’s also a proven course and distance winner – the only one in the field – and so there is a good chance we’ve not seen the best of her just yet. Of the rest, Frankuus would be interesting if coping with this step up in trip, while the James Fanshawe-trained 5 year-old ARTHENUS (e/w) can run better than her odds suggest after a good second last time out.

 

NEWMARKET (JULY) Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

 

3.40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
13/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting market
13/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
13/14 – Won just once previously
13/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
10/14 – Had won over only 6f previously
9/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
7/14 – Had just one previous run
7/14 –  Favourites that won
7/14 – Raced at Newmarket (5) or Sandown (2) last time out
5/14 – Won by Godolphin
3/14 – Won over 7f previously
3/14 – Trained by the Hills stable
Nations Alexander (4/1) won the race in 2016
2 winners from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
4 of the last 10 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Dance Diva is sure to be popular after her recent second at Ascot, but she was beaten 5 lengths that day and having already won three times looks a tad more exposed than some of the others. She’s also yet to race over this 7f trip, so despite it looking likely to suit, it’s still an unknown. The Richard Hannon-trained Mayyasah has done nothing wrong by winning her sole run by an easy 2 ½ lengths at Newbury and commands respect, but the call here is for Godolphin to continue their decent record in this race. They’ve won it five times in the last 14 runnings and run POETIC CHARM here. This March-born juvenile ticks a lot of the key trends and heads here off the back of a decent course and distance win last month. With that run under her belt and the Charlie Appleby yard having a decent 25% record with their 2 year-olds at the track then that’s a further plus for backers. Capla Temptress and Tajaanus are others to consider.

 

 

Subscribe to Britain’s Best-Selling Horse Racing Magazine Today

 

 

OddsMonkey
Comments