Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 21st June 2017)

2017 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

ROYAL ASCOT continues on Wednesday 21st June with another bumper six-race card to look forward too that includes the Jersey and Queen Mary Stakes, but the clear highlight on DAY TWO is the Group One Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – did you know 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old?

More Royal Ascot 2017 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2017 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2017 Royal Ascot
  • 2017 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2017 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

So, like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

2.30 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 –  Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

14/15 – Had at least 1 run already that season
12/15 – Had 4 or more career runs
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
8/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/15 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Horses from stall 8 placed
7/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/15 – Won their previous race
2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/15 – Winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 4 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We kick-off with the Group Three Jersey Stakes on day two and with 20 horses heading to post then it’s going to be a tricky opener to unravel. Godolphin’s Dream Castle and the French raider Le Brivido have been popular in the betting since the antepost markets opened and both bring solid form into the race. Dream Castle will be a popular winner with the boys in blue plumping for Josie Gordon to ride. He was last seen running Churchill to just 3 ¼ lengths in the 2,000 Guineas and on before that was a solid second to Barney Roy over 7f. He’ll love the quick ground and the drop back to this 7f trip looks another bonus – looks a big player. Le Brivido also has decent Guineas form after running a decent second – beaten just a short head – in the French version last month and on that running is another that is sure to be popular now dropped from Group 1 level to Group 3. But the ground that day was soft so he’ll need to prove himself on this much quicker surface, while this will also be his first try over 7f – but he has won over 6 and 6 1/2f. The Gosden-trained Daban is another to consider after running third to Winter in the 1,000 Guineas and is actually unbeaten (2 from 2) over this 7f trip. However, with 12 of the last 15 winners having raced at least 4 times before then all three of those already mentioned fall down on that trend. Some interesting draw stats over that last few years that have seen 4 of the last 9 horses from stall 11 finishing second – Glastonbury Song – is the horse that’s been handed the 11 berth this year. While 6 of the last 15 horses from stall 8 have been placed – True Valour. Yes, Dream Castle and Le Brivido are respected, but don’t look great value in a race of this nature so the value call is to side with WHITECLIFFSOFDOVER (e/w) and WINNING WAYS (e/w). The first-named hails from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard and with this race going to the Irish in 3 of the last 5 runnings then that’s a plus. Ryan Moore is another bonus in the saddle, while despite being beaten at odds-on in a Listed race last time out I think he’s better than that. He’s been placed in Group One Grand Criterium, while this quicker ground will also be to his liking. He’s yet to finish out of the first three from 4 tries over 7f with form figures that read 1-2-1-3, and it’s also interesting connections reach for the blinkers for the first time. Winning Ways hail from the Jeremy Noseda team that have a fine recent record in the race – winning it in 2002 and 2005. This 3 year-old is the only proven course and distance winner in the field so no issues on the track front and heads here off the back of an impressive 3 ¼ length win over these conditions. Yes, that was in a handicap, so more is needed, but looks a horse on the up and certainly deserves to take his chance in this higher grade.

3.05 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 5f

Queen Mary Recent Winners

2016 – Lady Aurelia (2/1 fav)
2015 – Acapulco (5/2 fav)
2014 – Anthem Alexander (9/4 fav)
2013 – Rizeena (6/1)
2012 – Ceiling Kitty (20/1)
2011 – Best Terms (12/1)
2010 – Maqaasid (9/4 fav)
2009 – Jealous Again (13/2)
2008 – Langs Lash (25/1)
2007 – Elletelle (20/1)
2006 – Gilded (11/2)
2005 – Flashy Wings (4/1 jfav)
2004 – Damson (11/2 jfav)
2003 – Attraction (13/8 fav)
2002 – Romantic Liason (16/1)

Queen Mary Stakes Trends

14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
13/15 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
12/15 – Won their previous race
10/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
3/15 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including last 2 runnings)
2/15 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 17/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 2 year-old fillies get to strut their stuff here for the first time on day two and all eyes will be on the Wesley Ward-trained HAPPY LIKE A FOOL with the stable having won the last two runnings of the race. Yes, it’s hard to know much about this horse after just one win, but the fact these powerful US connections are sending her over to run in a race they love win is a big tip to how they rate her. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and having won from the front last time then she’ll be trying to repeat what Lady Aurelia did in the race for the yard 12 months ago. Those against her might look at the trend that has 13 of the last 15 winners foaled between January of February (she was foaled in April 2015), but with all of the other main stats on her side if might pay to turn a blind eye to that stat based on the good stable record in the race. If the betting is anything to go by then the Clive Cox runner Heartach might give the selection most to think about. She was an easy 6 length winner on debut at Bath and is clearly held in high regard. Others to note are Emilia James, who likes to blast out too, while Mrs Gallagher, Out Of The Flames, Treasuring, Chica La Habana and Formidable Kitt were all good winners last time out and look likely to do the best of those outside the top two in the betting.

3.40 – The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (Group 2) 1m

Duke of Cambridge Recent Winners

2016 – Usherette (9/4 fav)
2015 – Amazing Maria (25/1)
2014 – Integral (9/4 fav)
2013 – Duntle (10/3)
2012 – Joviality (11/1)
2011 – Lolly For Dolly (11/1)
2010 – Strawberrydaiquiri (9/2)
2009 – Spacious (10/1)
2008 – Sabana Perdida (4/1)
2007 – Nannina (3/1 co-fav)
2006 – Soviet Song (11/8 fav)
2005 – Peeress (14/1)
2004 – Favourable Terms (13/2)

Duke of Cambridge Trends

12/13 – Had won over a mile (or further) before
12/13 – Had won a Group 3 or better race before
12/13 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Won by a 4 year-old
9/13 – Had run at Ascot before
7/13 – Favourites that were placed
6/13 – Had won at Ascot before
4/13 – Ran at Epsom last time out
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price
4/13 – Owned by Cheveley Park Stud
4/13 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/13 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/13 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 15/2
Only three placed horse from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: All the talk ahead of this race has surrounded the Godolphin-owned Laugh Aloud, who won by an easy 5 lengths last time out at Epsom. This 4 year-old had another of today’s runners – Absolute Blast in behind that day and having won on a good-to-firm surface in the past then he looks to have plenty going for him – ticking the top 5 main trends. However, he does fall down on the fact 9 of the last 13 winners of this race had raced at Ascot before, with 6 of those winning here. With that in-mind the French-trained QEMAH, who landed the Coronation Stakes here last season, gets the nod. This 4 year-old was last seen running second behind Mix And Mingle, who also has an entry for this, at Lingfield over 7f, but that was her first run for 9 months and we can expect the cobwebs to have been blown away. The step up to a mile will suit as all her best efforts have been over this trip, plus her regular jockey – Gregory Benoist – is back in the saddle. With proven winning form at the track and this meeting then they are further pluses, while she heads into the race as the second highest-rated in the field. Of the rest, the Ryan Moore ridden SMART CALL (e/w) who is the highest-rated in the line, should be a lot better for her recent third at York after a hefty lay-off and looks the value against the first two in the market.

4.20 – The Prince of Wales´s Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f

 

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – My Dream Boat (16/1)
2015 – Free Eagle (5/2 fav)
2014 – The Fugue (11/2)
2013 – Al Kazeem (11/4)
2012 – So You Think (4/5 fav)
2011 – Rewilding (17/2)
2010 – Byword (5/2 fav)
2009 – Vision D’etat (4/1)
2008 – Duke of Marmalade (Evs fav)
2007 – Manduro (15/8 fav)
2006 – Ouija Board (8/1)
2005 – Azamour (11/8 fav)
2004 – Rakti (3/1)
2003 – Nayef (5/1)
2002 –  Grandera (4/1)

Prince of Wales´s Stakes Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Won by a 4 or 5 year-old
12/15 – Were previous Group 1 winners
12/15 – Had at least 1 previous run that season
12/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Won by a non-UK based trainer
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before
6/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 9/2
3 of the last 10 runnings have gone to a French-trained horse

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A top race in prospect here with the layers finding it hard to split the recent Coronation Cup winner, Highland Reel, the 2015 Derby runner-up Jack Hobbs and the recent Gordon Richards Stakes winner Ulysses. Starting with the last-named, this Stoute-trained runner won well last time off a break and with just 8 career starts there could be more to come. That recent win was at Group Three level and so this step up in grade means more is needed but he travelled well that last day and looks to be more suited by this trip than his two main rivals – his 4 past runs over this distance have been 2-1-2-1. Jack Hobbs has been third the last twice he’s run at Ascot, but they were in top races. He’s sure to be thereabouts again, but the main worry would be the trip as all of his last three wins have been over 1m4f. He’ll love the ground and having only been out of the top 3 three once in his 10-race career then he looks sure to be in the shake-up. Highland Reel was a good winner of the Coronation Cup last time, but that was over 1m4f. Of the main three he’s the only proven course winner, but the last 3 times he’s tried this trip he’s been well beaten – that would be a big worry. Of the rest, Queen’s Trust and Decorated Hero look fair value if the main three cut each other’s throats, but we’ll stick with ULYSSES here, mainly based on the fact he’s got solid form over this 1m2f trip.

 

5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m

 

Royal Hunt Cup Recent Winners

2016 – Portage (10/1)
2015 – GM Hopkins (8/1)
2014 – Field of Dream (20/1)
2013 – Belgian Bill (33/1)
2012 – Prince Of Johanne (16/1)
2011 – Julienas (12/1)
2010 – Invisible Man (28/1)
2009 – Forgotten Voice (4/1 fav)
2008 – Mr Aviator (25/1)
2007 – Royal Oath (9/1)
2006 – Cesare (14/1)
2005 – New Seeker (11/1)
2004 – Mine (16/1)
2003 – Macadamia (8/1)
2002 – Norton (25/1)

Royal Hunt Cup Trends

14/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Unplaced favourites
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
9/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 6 of the last 8 runnings)
5/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/15 – Won by trainer John Gosden
1/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 16/1
Overall high number stalls have dominated in recent years
9 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 8 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: One of the biggest field of the whole week with 30 horses heading to post, so not a race to go overboard in. GM Hopkins took the prize in 2015 and despite having only won again since is rated just 2lbs higher here – draw 29 means he can race against the rails and with 9 of the last 11 winners coming from a double-figure draw that’s a plus. If that draw stat is to be repeated then we can at least knockout 9 of the 30 runners that have a single-figure stall, while it might be worth having a small saver on Battle Of Marathon as 3 of the last 8 winners had come from stall 33. 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5, so this is another significant trend, plus 11 of the last 15 carried 9-1 or less in weight. There has been a lot of support in recent days for the Jeremy Noseda-trained Abe Lincoln. This horse is drawn 31 and gets in with just 8-13, but a 370-day absence and the fact she’s yet to win over this 1m trip would be a concern. Based on the main trends there are 6 that stand out – FASTNET TEMPEST, EL VIP, GK CHESTERTON, COTE D’AZUR, BLAIR HOUSE and GOSSIPPING. The last-named is currently first reserve so will need one to drop out, but having won 4 of his last 5 starts is a horse that is rapidly improving and looks interesting should he make it. Fastnet Tempest is a past course winner, but is now 10lbs higher than when winning here earlier this season and with a hard-fought Chester win last time might just not be as fresh as some of the others. So, of the six highlighted EL VIP (e/w) and GK CHESTERSTON (e/w) get the call. The first-named won well on the AW at Newcastle last time and off just a 5lb higher mark has been given every chance. He’s only had 7 career runs so there should be more to come and draw 12 gives his options. GK Chesterton heads here on a three-timer after wins at Newmarket and Epsom and is another that is only up 5lbs here. The ground will be fine and since being gelded has won twice and finished second the other time – there could be more improvement still to come – both look decent value so there is no harm splitting stakes.

5.35 – Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m

 

Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

Sandringham Handicap Trends

14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13/15 – Had never run at Ascot before
12/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
11/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/15 – Carried 8-11 or more
10/15 – Placed in their previous race
7/15 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
7/15 – Won their last race
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all)
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden took this race 12 months ago and tries again with three Dancing Breeze, Gymnaste &  PRESENT TENSE (e/w). Starting with the last-named – her sole career win from her three starts came on a quick surface at Yarmouth so the ground will be fine, as will this step back up to a mile after finding 7f a bit sharp last time – she looks interesting and I would not be shocked if some money came for her –  Frankie was meant to be riding her before he was ruled out with injury so that’s another good sign. It’s not been a bad contest for the favourites too, considering the competitive nature of the race – 5 of the last 15 market leaders have won, while 11 of the last 15 favourites have finished in the top 4. 10 of the last 15 winners carried 8-11 or more in weight so if this is to be repeated it means negatives for horses numbered 16 to 24, one of which is the Gosden-trained Gymnaste, who looks likely to go off near the head of the market. 10 of the last 15 were also placed last time out with 7 of the last 15 winning last time out – Queen Of Time, Lady Freya and Cheval Blanche are actually the only horses that won last time out in the field. Taking all that into account the William Haggas-trained ON HER TOES (e/w) certainly ticks more trends than not. This filly was a fine second last time out on her return in a Listed race at York and being that was her first run since last August then she’s sure to have come on again. She’s won on a variety of different ground, plus the Haggas camp have been firing in plenty of winners over the last fortnight or so. Of the rest, Godolphin are mob-handed with three – Bean Feasa, Grecian Light and Really Special, so all command respect, plus the powerful US-based yard of Wesley Ward sends Con Te Partiro over, who is still interesting despite having a bit to prove around this sort of trip.

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