Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 22nd June 2017)

2017 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

As we move into DAY THREE at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more top-notch races to take in that include the Ribblesdale Stakes, Britannia Stakes and Norfolk Stakes, but day three has always only ever been about one race – the Ascot Gold Cup! Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be going for his 8th win in the race, while – Did you know that 11 of the last 15 Ascot Gold Cup favourites finished in the top three?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

More Royal Ascot 2017 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2017 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2017 Royal Ascot
  • 2017 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2017 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

 

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Previous winners over 5f
14/14 – Had at least 1 previous run
13/14 – Won their previous race
13/14 – Had a RPR of 106+
12/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/14 – Foaled in March or April
9/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Windsor last time out
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Day three gets going with another chance to see some of the best juveniles from this season’s crop and with the powerful US-based Wesley Ward team, who won this in 2013, having another runner in McErin then this speedy sort is sure to be popular. Bring foaled in March he ticks that key trend and with two career starts will head into the race with a bit more experience than most. He won on debut over 4 ½ furlongs at Keenland, but was just touched-off over 5f next time at Churchill Downs – he was third that day, but only beaten a neck! Based on that his doubters will look to the stiffer Ascot as a negative and his ability to see the race out here. In the last 14 runnings we’ve seen 3 winning favourites, with 9 of the last 14 market leaders placed, so the betting is often a good guide. Santry is certainly interesting, having won his two starts in decent fashion at Doncaster and York. More is needed now into Group class, but looks a smart prospect for the Declan Carroll team and champion jockey, Jim Crowley, has been booked to ride. But another horse that is likely to blast out and try and get the others at it early is the Karl Burke-trained Havanna Grey. This colt has already had three career starts – winning twice – and was impressive the last day when beating Frozen Angel, who also runs here, at Sandown in a Listed contest. He’s certainly one to fear, but being a February foal does fall down on that particular trend. Paul Hanagan and trainer Richard Fahey team up with It Don’t Come Easy, who improved from his debut 4th to win last time out at Musselburgh, but on that first run was beaten 3 ½ lengths behind Santry so might need another step forward to get closer to that rival. On a plus, the Fahey camp seem to have a good crop of 2 year-olds this season so the fact he’s been picked to run here is a good sign. Rock Of Estonia is another that could be anything after two wins to date, but this looks harder, but the one that ticks more trends than not is the Ralph Beckett-trained NINE BELOW ZERO (E/W). This March-foaled colt has won both starts in decent fashion – including last time at Windsor. 3 of the last 14 winners of this race were in action at Windsor last time out, while the ground for both his wins has been on the quick side. With the expected improvement and already two runs under his belt he looks a decent option in what looks a tough opener. McERIN rates the danger.

3.05 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

 

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Key Trends

13/14 – Had not raced at Ascot before
11/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
9/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Epsom last time out
2/14 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
7 of the last 11 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Super-competitive renewal of the Hampton Court Stakes, but it’s a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute yards love to target – winning 4 between them in the last 14 runnings. O’Brien runs Taj Mahal and Orderofthegarter and you’d think on jockey bookings that the Moore-ridden Orderofthegarter is their favoured one, but don’t’ forget what happened in the Derby, or the 1,000 Guineas this season – winning both of those races with not their main fancy. In fact, Taj Mahal is officially rated 113, to Orderofthegarter’s 110, so really there should not be a lot between them. Stoute runs Mirage Dancer and with just two career runs there should be more to come and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths (4th) in the Dee Stakes last time – certainly one for the shortlist. Another key trend to note are that 10 of the last 14 winners were placed 1st or 2nd in their most previous race and if this is to be repeated then of the 16 runners only 6 fit the bill – LARCHMONT LAD, GOLD SPINNER, GREY BRITAIN, JAKE’S HILL, MUCHO APPLAUSE and SPEEDO BOY. 9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or higher so those in 1 to 4 have this to overcome – Tamleek, Larchmont Lad, Mirage Dancer and Irishcorrespondent. If we want to take the draw trend a step further then it might pay to note that 7 of the last 11 winners did, in fact, come between stalls 5-9 (inc) – Gold Spinner, Benbatl, Kings Gift, Jake’s Hill & Bay Of Poets. So, plenty of the runners have positives and negatives, but the ones that stand out the most are the Godolphin pair – BENBATL (E/W) and BAY OF POETS (E/W). The last-named has been gelded since running a close seventh in the French Derby and should find this drop in grade more to his liking, while before that was a close second to the Derby runner-up Cliffs Of Moher in the Dee Stakes at Chester. He’ll love the quick surface and despite having a few questions to answer about the trip is certainly one of interest. Benbatl is also yet to win over 1m2f, but the fact he was only beaten 3 ½ lengths in the Derby is a clear sign that this distance is not a worry. Before that he was second in the Dante Stakes at York and third in the Craven. He’s closely linked in with his stablemate – Bay Of Poets – on a form line with Cliffs Of Moher, so there might not be much between them, but if the prices allow if might be worth splitting stakes here across the two and firing two arrows at this race. Of the rest, the consistent Speedo Boy could surprise at a bigger price.

 

3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Key Trends

12/14 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
12/14 – Placed in their previous race
11/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
10/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/14 – Won their last race
5/14 – Irish-trained winners (4 of last 5)
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
6 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: In recent years this race has been a good one for the Irish – winning 4 of the last 5. With that in mind, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Alluringly is sure to figure high on many punter’s lists. She was last seen running third in the Epsom Oaks so brings decent Group One form to the table and is the highest-rated in the field. However, it’s worth noting she was beaten 11 lengths last time and has only won one of her 5 career starts. The Stoute-trained Mori has done little wrong in winning her last two starts and is clearly held in high regard to be stepping up from Listed grade. She’s also got a course win under her belt and beat another of today’s runner – Coconut Crème – well last time, but with all runs coming over 1m2f will need to prove he stays this far. A few questions to answer, but certainly not one to ignore. Coronet, Rich Legacy and Serenada are others that are worth considering, especially Coronet, who was fifth in the Epsom Oaks last time, but the only other Irish raider in the race – NAUGHTY OR NICE (E/W) – looks interesting. This John Oxx-trained 3 year-old has won both career starts in decent fashion, but will head here fresher than most after missing the big Oaks trials and Epsom itself. The fact the shrewd John Oxx camp send her over catches the eye and having won over 1m5f last time out on quick ground then we know conditions will be ideal. With the first-time blinkers also on here then connections are clearly looking for an extra edge.

 

4.20 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends

13/15 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
12/15 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
12/15 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Favourites that were placed
10/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
10/15 – Won their last race
8/15 – Aged 5 or older
8/15 – Won by the favourite
7/15 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2
9 of the last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7 of the last 11 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
Since 1949 there have been 13 multiple winners of the race

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the ‘big one’ and what many describe as the race of the meeting. Last season we saw the Aidan O’Brien-trained ORDER OF ST GEORGE runaway with the prize and really everything looks in place for this 5 year-old to follow-up. The powerful Ballydoyle camp have won the race 7 times and that included 4 wins on the spin for Yeats between 2006 and 2009. At just 5 years-old then many feel this horse can run up a similar sequence in the contest, and whose so say he won’t! Yes, the ground was soft 12 months ago, but he acts on a quicker surface too – backed-up with an easy win on good-to-firm ground last time at Leopardstown. His preparation has been similar to 12 months ago and although the race has a slightly better feel to it this year he’s still the clear one all the others have to aim at. We’ve another recent winner in the field too with Trip To Paris. Yes, this horse has been a bit in-and-out of late and is actually yet to win a race since his win in this in 20015 – but could still go well at a price and would be foolish to totally ignore. Simple Verse gets the mares allowance and this former St Leger winner is also a past course winner that has form on a wide range of different ground. She returned with a close second to Dartmouth in the Yorkshire Cup and if staying this trip is certainly a big danger to the favourite. The same applies to Big Orange, who won the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last time out by an impressive 5 lengths. Yes, this will be harder, but this tough front runner could easily get them all at it up the straight and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if he held on if getting the trip – this is the furthest he’s gone. Sweet Selection and Quest For More are others to note and are both past course winners, but with Order Of St George a proven performer in this race and at this trip then he looks the safest call. Simple Verse and Big Orange can do best of the rest.

5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m

 

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Key Trends

13/14 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
11/14 – Failed to win their previous race
11/14 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
11/14 – Placed last time out
10/14 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/14 – Had never run at Ascot before
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
8/14 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
6/14 – Had only won over 7f previously
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 13/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 33 runners head to post here, so it’s a race we’ll be hoping to whittle down using the key trends. With 8 of the last 11 winners coming from a double-figure draw then based on this we can probably rule out those drawn between 1-9 – two of which are leading fancies Ronald R (1), Tricorn (7) and Leader’s Legacy (2). 11 of the last 14 winners were placed last time out, so that helps knock a few more out, while 13 of the last 14 winners had raced no more than 3 times that season. With 10 of the last 14 winners also carrying 8-13 or less then this is another benchmark to note, while jockeys Jamie Spencer and Ryan Moore have cracking records in the race – winning it 5 times between them in the last 14 renewals. Moore rides CITY OF JOY (E/W) and Spencer gets the leg-up on GILGAMESH (E/W). Both horses also tick a lot of the other key trends mentioned. They are drawn in double-figures and carry less than 8-13, plus head here off the back of good runs. City Of Joy has won his last two in good fashion – beating Tricorn last time at Chelmsford. Yes, more is needed, but a 5lb higher mark doesn’t look harsh and with only 6 career runs there should be more to come. Gilgamesh has been winning loads of late too after picking up victories at Wolverhampton (twice) and Redcar. He’s been getting the job done with a bit more in-hand than the official margins suggest and is also only 5lbs higher this time. He’s a strong travelling type that likes to race off the pace so is a perfect ride for Spencer, who has ridden him in 4 of his 5 starts. Of the rest, Keyser Soze, and Moritzburg tick a lot of trends, as does the Hannon-trained THE GRAPE ESCAPE (E/W). This 3 year-old was second at Haydock last time out behind Leaders Legacy, but has been given 40 days to get over that run. He’s got a 4lbs weght pull this time while draw 12 gives him plenty of options – he’ll be by third one against the field.

5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f

 

King George V Stakes Recent Winners
2016 – Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Key Trends
14/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
14/14 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13/14 – Never raced at Ascot before
13/14 – Placed last time out
11/14 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
8/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Won their previous race
5/14 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (3)
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 10-15 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 13.5/1

With 22 runners here then the ‘getting-out’ stakes on day three is not going to be easy. But, again, there are several key trends to note – for example, ALL of the last 14 winners having had at least 2 previous runs that season, while 13 of the last 14 were placed in their last race. Trainers Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute are also ones to note here – having won 5 of the last 14 runnings between them. Johnston has SOFIA’S ROCK (E/W), MONTICELLO (E/W), BEAR VALLEY (E/W) and MISTER MANDURO (E/W), while Stoute has given the others a chance this year by not having a runner! The Roger Charlton-trained Atty Persse will be popular for the Godolphin team, but this will be his first time over 1m4f and it would be a worry that he was turned over at Even money last time out at Haydock over 1m2f – on a plus 3 of the last 14 winners raced at Haydock last time out, but the horse doesn’t look much value in the betting! 9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 10-20, while 10 of the last 15 came from stalls 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15. However, in such a tricky race I’d prefer to stick with the Johnston runners and at the prices there is even a case to be made for having a split-stakes interest in all four. If we take the key draw trend into account then Bear Valley, Sofia’s Rock and Mister Manduro edge it, while it’s interesting that the current champion jockey – Jim Crowley – has been booked to ride Sofia’s Rock, while the in-form Silvestre De Sousa gets the leg-up on Mister Manduro.

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