Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 20th June 2017)

2017 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

The curtain goes up on another ROYAL ASCOT with the normal bang and three Group One’s on the day with the Queen Anne Stakes, King’s Stand Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes the feature contests. Did you know that ALL of the last 15 King’s Stand Stakes winners were aged 7 or younger?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

More Royal Ascot 2017 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2017 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2017 Royal Ascot
  • 2017 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2017 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

 

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/15 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Previous winners over 1 mile
12/15 – Had already won a Group 1 race
12/15 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/15 – Had never run at Ascot before
9/15 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (3)
7/15 – Favourites that were unplaced
7/15 – Won their previous race
6/15 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15  – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from Stall 1 in the last 9 runnings
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 4 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/2

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We hit the ground running for this Group One, but despite a big field of 16 runners this race is really about one horse – RIBCHESTER. This Godolphin-owned runner is the top-rated in the field (125) by 5lbs and really after his impressive recent Lockinge Stakes win at Newbury this looks his race to lose. He had the next best in the betting here – Lightning Spear – beaten 3 ¼ lengths that day and although I expect that David Simcock-trained 6 year-old to get a bit closer on this quicker ground that’s still a fair bit of ground to make up on the same terms. That was also Lightning Spear’s first run for 7 months so we can fully expect him to have come on for the race, but Ribchester looked to have a bit more up his sleeve last time too. Add in that the favourite is already a Royal Ascot winner when landing the Jersey Stakes here over 7f last year then he’s proven at the meeting. Yes, the quicker ground is a slight worry but all-in-all favourite backers will be looking to get off to the perfect start here with this horse sure to be in loads of day one double, trebles and accas – we think this can be the first leg of what might be a tricky day for the bookmakers! Those looking to take him on might look to the draw as we’ve not had a winner from stall 1 in the last 9 runnings – while 8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 4 or higher. Of the rest, the William Haggas-trained Mutakayyef won the Group Two Summer Mile over this course and distance last July and commands respect. He’s not been out since March, but has gone well fresh in the past and the Haggas camp have their horses in fine fettle at the moment.

 

3.05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

 

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

15/15 – Won their previous race
14/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/15 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
11/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/15 – Won over 6f before
8/15 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/15 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/15 – Won by a Jan foal
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 18 head to post for the Coventry Stakes – a top Group 2 for the juveniles. These youngsters can improve at the rate of knots at this time of year – especially between their opening few races so nothing can be totally ruled out, but if we do look at the trends there are a few things that do seem to crop-up more often than not. Winning last time out is key with ALL of the last 15 fitting that bracket – of the 18 we’ve got 13 that fit the bill. It’s generally a race the punters get right with 13 of the last 15 winners coming from the top three in the market, so at this stage Brother Bear, Arawak, Denaar, De Bruyne Horse and Murillo look the ones to focus on. The Hannon team have a decent record – winning the race in 2009 and 2010, so their De Bruyne Horse and Denaar get further boosts, but the trainer with the best record is Aidan O’Brien with 5 victories in the last 15 runnings – he runs US Navy Flag and Murillo. Being foaled in February or March is another thing to note with 11 of the last 15 ticking this stat, but all of the top 5 in the betting and, those already mentioned, do. The draw is worth looking at too with 8 or the last 9 winners coming from stalls 6 or higher – of the fancied ones Murillo (4) – looks to have this to overcome. The US-based yard of Wesley Ward run Arawak and with a 24% strike-rate at the track with this runners then this unbeaten colt is sure to attract plenty of support. He won his only start at Belmont by an impressive 7 lengths so could be anything and despite that form being hard to translate to the UK/Irish scene he’s clearly well-regarded. The Jessie Harrington-trained Brother Bear could be the one to go off favourite after romping away to victory in both his starts to date. One was on soft ground and the other on a good-to-form surface so no issues on the underfoot conditions, while draw 8 gives him options. However, with 6 of the last 9 winners coming from a double-figure stall then those against him might cling to this. Denaar has done little wrong in winning his two starts, but of the Hannon pair the slightly more experienced DE BRUYNE HORSE (e/w) might have more to give. He was a nice winner at Epsom last time over 6f and being one of the more experienced in the field (3 runs) that could prove a big advantage. He’s sure to have improved from that last run that was just under 3 weeks ago and should be well-suited by this stiffer track. Of the rest, Aidan O’Brien’s Murillo (e/w), despite the draw stat being against him, is also feared coming from this powerful yard and is clearly held in high regard being stepped up to this grade after only winning a maiden last time.

 

3.40 – King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

 

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners

2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 – Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 – Prohibit (7/1)
2010 – Equiano (9/2)
2009 – Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 – Equiano (22/1)
2007 – Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 – Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 – Chineur (7/1)
2004 – The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Aged 4 or older
13/15 – Had won a Group race before
11/15 – Finished first or second last time out
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
8/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before (5 had won at the track)
6/15 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
5/15 – Favourites that finished third
3/15 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – 3 Year-old winners
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 8 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Clive Vox-trained Profitable took this race 12 months ago and now with Godolphin (but still trained by Cox) is certainly not one to rule out. This 5 year-old returned to the track with a decent second to another of today’s runners – Signs Of Blessing – last month in France and should be much better for the run. He’s won on ground ranging from good-to-form to soft so no issues on that front either – of those at a double-figure price he looks some value. Signs Of A Blessing, having beaten Profitable by 2 lengths last time, will be shorter in the betting and is sure to be in the mix having been third in the Diamond Jubilee here last year, plus a close 4th in the Champions Sprint here last October – looks a big player. The UK flag will be flown by a number of top sprinters, but the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Marsha looks likely to go off the shortest price. She gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance and is a sprinter on the up after wins in the Abbaye (G1) and Palace House (G3) recently. She’s a speedy sort that likes to come with a run so might need a bit of luck in-running, but having never raced at Ascot might put some off. Take Cover is likely to blast out the stalls and try to make all, as he only knows one way of running. But he was 11th in the race last year and at 10 years-old is not getting any younger. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Washington DC would be foolish to ignore despite a poor run last time. He was a close second to Marsha the time before and was a top third in the Group One Commonwealth Cup here last June. Muthmir and Goldream, who will love the ground and took this race in 2015 are others to note, but all eyes here will be on the US-speedball – LADY AURELIA. She landed the Queen Mary Stakes here last year by an impressive 7 lengths and from that mind-blowing performance became a household name in the racing ranks. She will be looking to become the first horse aged 3 years-old to win since Equiano (2008). However, due to her age and being a filly she gets in here with just 8-9 so receives 5lbs from the other females in the race and a stonking 9lbs from the rest. With that advantage, and having already tasted Royal Ascot success, then she’ gets the call – with Goldream , Profitable and Washington DC looking the each-way value in the race.

4.20 – St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

 

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 – Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
13/15 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
13/15 – Favourites that were placed
12/15 – Had won over a mile before
12/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
10/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10/15 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Won their previous race
9/15 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/15 – Had run at Ascot before
5/15 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 9 runnings
5 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another top Group One to take in here and despite only 8 runners we still look set for a decent contest. Thunder Snow was a fair runner-up in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time out so commands respect, but the horse that beat him that dayCHURCHILL is the one all the others have to aim at here. This Aidan O’Brien-trained 3 year-old has been kept to a mile after landing both the English and Irish Guineas in impressive fashion – with the temptation of upping him in trip to tackle the Derby overlooked. He’s rated 5lbs higher than anything else in the race and is now has 7 wins from his last 8. Add in that he took the Chesham Stakes at the meeting 12 months ago then he’s another that’s tasted experience of this big meeting, while in Ryan Moore he’ll have no better pilot. It will be a major shock if he’s not taking this and looks another of the so-called ‘bankers’ that punters will be steaming into and placing in doubles and trebles on day one. Those against him will look to Barney Roy to cause the upset. This Godolphin-owned 3 year-old was only a length behind Churchill last time in the English Guineas and with the expected improvement rates the next best. The Hannon team have kept him fresh for this and with just 3 career runs there could be a whole lot more to come from this Godolphin horse. However, with the experience edge, plus Ascot form already under his belt we’ll be sticking with Churchill here – Barney can follow him home.

 

5.00 – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

 

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

13/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
12/15 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
12/15 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/15 – Won their previous race
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Trainer Alan King has 20% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
5 of the last 9 winners came from a double-figure stall
No runners from stall 1 placed in the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12.4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto one of the long distance races at Royal Ascot next as we’ve 20 runners locking horns over this 2m4f trip. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see several trainers that are more famed for having runners over the sticks with entries – Alan King, Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins all have runners and with 12 of the last 15 winners hailing from a jumping yard then these look the ones to focus on. With 10 of the last 15 winners also aged 4 or 5 years-old then this age bracket has by-far the best recent record and of the 20 runners 12 have that stat as a plus. The Mullins camp took this in 2015 and in Thomas Hobson they look to have a big player again. Ryan Moore rides this Ricci-owned 7 year-old, who was 18th in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s since won at Fairyhouse and run well at Punchestown so heads here fit and well, while before his jumping days many will remember him as a multiple flat winner for trainer John Gosden – winning 4 of his 7 starts. The ground should be fine, but with all wins coming over shorter (even over jumps) then this 2m4f trip does pose some question marks, while at 7 years-old he falls down on that age trend. Henderson runs Beyond Conceit, while Nicholls has a rare Royal Ascot runner with High Secret so both command respect, especially the Nicholls runner who will be ridden by daughter Megan – now wouldn’t that be a story?! He warmed-up for this with a decent second last time at Goodwood over 1m6f, but will love this ground and is no stranger to the flat game after winning 4 of this 11 starts when with Sir Mark Prescott. But the ones we like here are the Alan King-trained WHO DARES WINS (e/w) and OCEANE (e/w). The first-named was a decent third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham earlier this season and has since run a cracking 4th in the Chester Cup. Aged 5 then he ticks the key age trend and gets in here with a fair-looking 9-3. OCEANE might be the value though. He’ll love the ground and has run well at the track twice before, including last time when a close second here over 2m. This longer trip will suit and is proven over it after running third in the Goodwood Stakes at their Glorious Meeting last summer. Any money for the Pipe-trained Iniciar would be interesting as the yard has targeted this race in the past. But of the non-jumps trained horses, the tough and consistent Yorkidding has to be respected if coping with the step up in trip and is a past course winner, while the Ralph Beckett-trained Magic Circle, Endless Acre, from the Charlie Fellowes team and Cartwright are others to note.

5.35 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

 

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

15/15 – Had at least 1 previous outing
14/15 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
12/15 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
12/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Had never run at Ascot before
8/15 – Won their previous race
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won by a Feb foal
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Wesley Ward
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 9 runnings
6 of the last 9 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 17/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tough 2 year-old race to end the day one action, but with 12 of the last 15 winners of the Windsor Castle having raced 2 or 3 times this at least knocks the 24 runners down to 14. With just 1 placed horse from stall 1 in the last 9 years then Excellently Poised looks to have it all to do, but with 6 of the last 9 winners hailing from a double-figure stall this is certainly something to note. Winning form over 5f is another plus, with 12 of the last 15 having tasted success over the minimum trip before. We’ve another two from the Wesley Ward team in Nootka Sound & Elizabeth Darcy and with wins in 2009 and 2014 for the yard then these fillies, who are both 1-from-1, are respected. Frankie rides Nootka Sound and Johnny Velazquez gets the leg up on Elizabeth Darcy. Godolphin’s Roussel was impressive on debut at Leicester and is clearly well-regarded to run straight into this level, while the Tom Dascome-trained Dragons Tail caught the eye when winning well at Chester last month. However, the one that stands out is the Aidan O’Brien-trained DECLARATIONOFPEACE. There should be a lot more to come from this late April foal and after an effortless Dundalk win on the AW last time out went into many a notebook. He won by an easy 6 lengths over 5f that day and although the quality of opposition is unknown he could not have been more impressive. Ryan Moore rides and with the Ballydoyle yard seemingly having plenty to pick from to run here it could be significant that this well-bred colt got the call. The stable also took the race with a similar type (Washington DC) in 2015, while draw 14 looks fine.

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