Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 19th June 2018)

2018 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

The curtain goes up on another ROYAL ASCOT with the normal bang and three Group One’s on the day with the Queen Anne Stakes, King’s Stand Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes the feature contests. Did you know that ALL of the last 16 King’s Stand Stakes winners were aged 7 or younger?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

More Royal Ascot 2018 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2018 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2018 Royal Ascot
  • 2018 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2018 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Previous winners over 1 mile
13/16 – Had already won a Group 1 race
13/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/16 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (4)
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
7/16 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16  – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 1 winner from Stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The ‘Boys In Blue’ of Godolphin will be looking to follow-up their success in this race 12 months ago – this time with the very useful Benbatl. Rated 123, then this 4 year-old is the highest ranked in the field and after a smooth Group One win over in Dubai last time sets a very high standard. He was also fifth in the King George and Epsom Derby last season and won the Hampton Court Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago. Let’s make no mistake, he’s a big player. However, the main niggle for me is the drop back to 1m. His recent win at Meydan was over 1m1f, while last year’s Royal Ascot success was over 1m2f. Yes, he probably doesn’t stay 1m4f but I can’t help feeling he might just find one of two with a tiny bit more pace than him over this trip. Of course, if he’s thereabouts in the final furlong then his proven stamina will be a huge asset and this Ascot mile does require a bit of getting. All of the last 16 winners of this were aged 4 or 5 so that’s against the 7 year-old Lightning Spear, despite a solid second in the Lockinge Stakes last time out. However, it’s the horse that beat him that day – Rhododendron – that looks set to go off favourite here. This 4 year-old filly gets 3lbs from the males here and will be looking to become Aidan O’Brien’s fourth winner in the race in the last 17 years. With Ryan Moore riding she’ll be popular with punters but as a result probably won’t be great value either. She’s another that stays further than this mile and is sure to be thereabouts. The improving Century Dream was a decent Group Three winner last time so despite this big step up in grade can also go well. He’s won 7 of his 13 starts, including 4 of his last 5 and the manner of his last victory suggests there’s more in the offering. Limato, Beat The Bank, Lord Glittersand Yoshida are others of the bigger priced horses that can’t be overlooked, but the other interesting one for me is the French raider – RECOLETOS. The French have a fair record in this race – winning three of the last 8 runnings – and this proven Group One winner looks to have a big say in adding to that record. Any rain would be fine, but he’s also got Group Two-winning form on a good surface. He was a fair fourth in the Champions Stakes behind Cracksman last October here so has also tasted the track. He faded in the final furlong of two that day over 1m2f so the 1m trip looks ideal and his regular pilot – Olivier Peslier – comes over for the ride.

3.05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

16/16 – Won their previous race
15/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
12/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Won over 6f before
8/16 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/16 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/16 – Won by a Jan foal
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Can be a tough race to call as these 2 year-olds can improve bundles between their opening few runs and until we see them on the track again it’s hard to assess. Having said that, we’ve some fair stats to take into the race – like ALL of the last 16 winners having won last time out. Yes, most fit the bill here but it should still help knock a few out. Anything the Aidan O’Brien camp run should be respected as they’ve won this pot five times in the last 16 years. We can expect them to have several entries but the hat-trick seeking SERGEI PROKOFIEV has certainly caught the eye. This well-bred US colt has shown bundles of speed to win his last two over 5f, included a Listed contest at Naas by an impressive 4 lengths last time out. Yes, he’s got another furlong to go here but breeding suggests it’s well within range and we this could be the latest sprinter to come out of the Ballydoyle operation that goes onto bigger and better things. Aidan O’Brien has a cracking 29% strike-rate with his 2 year-olds at the track. Last year’s winning connections will be looking to follow-up with Alfie Solomons but you suspect more is needed from his recent Newcastle win in this very hot race if the Spencer camp are to repeat last year’s win in the race. The Richard Fahey-trained Cosmic Law bolted up over 6f at Epsom last time out and is another to note – however, it’s worth noting that was on soft ground and it may have just been that he handled it a bit better than his rivals that day. I suspect he might just get a bit run off his feet in the opening stages on this ground and in this company and will have too much ground to make up in the closing stages – we’ll see. Godolphin’s runners – Burj and Dubai Legacy – can’t be overlooked and were both good winners last time out. However, the one punters will latch onto against the main O’Brien runner is Calyx. This John Gosden-trained Kingman colt went into many a notebook on debut at HQ after dotting-up by an easy 5 lengths. That came on similar ground and also over 6f so we know he handles these conditions and there should be more to come. He did drift a bit in the betting that day, despite winning as favourite, so it’s possible he surprised connections too. It’s hard to assess that race but only being a Class 4 then it goes without saying he’ll need to step up. A useful sort that is sure to go close here but I’ll stick with the slightly more experienced O’Brien runner in a race they love to target.

 

3.40 – King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners

2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 – Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 – Prohibit (7/1)
2010 – Equiano (9/2)
2009 – Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 – Equiano (22/1)
2007 – Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 – Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 – Chineur (7/1)
2004 – The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
12/16 – Finished first or second last time out
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won at the track)
6/16 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/16 – Favourites that finished third
3/16 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/16 – 3 Year-old winners
2/16 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 9 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal and unless we get a shock, then really you are either in the Battaash or Lady Aurelia camp. Yes, small cases can be made for the likes of Blue Point, Washington DC, Kachy, Mabs Cross and Finsbury Square but, for me, we all love to see the cream rise to the top and here we look to have a classic head-to-head battle. It really is a tough one to call too. Battaash is rated 123, with LADY AURELIA rated 122, but the Aussie raider gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance and that, for me, just swings it in her favour. She’s also a proven Royal Ascot winner after landing the Queen Mary and, of course, this race 12 months ago. Those against her will notice she’s yet to win since taking this 12 months ago but in her defence has only raced three times. She won this race by an impressive 3 lengths last year and from her two wins here at the track she’s now won by a total aggregate of 10 lengths. We can expect her to do her ‘normal’ and blast out the stalls and hopefully never see another rival. Battaash won the Temple Stakes last time out at Haydock but was far from impressive – only getting up in the dying strides to beat Washington DC. Of course, he’ll come on a lot for that and could easily have the race set up for him. That recent win was also his first run back since a wind op so we can also expect more to come but the proven winning track form of Lady Aurelia just edges it for me. Battaash is a much better horse now, but it’s worth pointing out he’s only run here once before as a 2 year-old and finished down the field in the Windsor Castle Stakes.

 

4.20 – St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 – Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
14/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
13/16 – Favourites that were placed
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/16 – Had run at Ascot before
5/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: All eyes here will be on the potentially useful Without Parole. It’s no secret that connections think he’s useful but were you really taken by his ¾ length win in the Listed Heron Stakes last time at Sandown? Yes, that came on sticky ground and it may turn out to still be a good considering the conditions. However, this is a big step up in grade and even though connections feel he’s up to the rise and that the quicker ground will be a big plus, I’d rather have seen this Frankel colt at this level first. Frankie rides and he’s a leading player but I feel we are guessing a bit with how good he might be and based on the workmanlike win last time feel he could be vulnerable to something with a bit more experience – 14 of the last 16 winners were also previous winners at Group 1 or 2 level. With five wins from the last 16 runnings then it goes without saying anything the Aidan O’Brien yard run should be noted. U S Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt set decent standards for the Ballydoyle team and we can expect the pair to both be popular in the betting. For me, both still have a bit to prove over this 1m trip with all wins coming over shorter – 13 of the last 16 winners had won over a mile previously. The 2,000 Guineas runner-up Top Two Win would be a huge winner for the Roger Teal yard. The form of that run might have it’s knockers after Saxon Warrior flopped in the Derby but if running to that Group One level again here then it’s hard to ignore his chance. He’s the second highest-rated in the field (117) and having raced 8 times now, is yet to finish out of the top three (4 wins) – he looks a placepot punters dream here. Gabr was a close second to Without Parole last time out at Sandown but you feel the Gosden horse can uphold that form as di look to be saving a bit for himself that day. The French-trained WOOTTON was a fair fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas last time on just his fourth career run so there should be more to come. Prior to that fourth he’d won his three other races and did have a few excuses last time after getting slightly hampered in the closing stages. He’ll need to settle a bit better as pulled a bit that day, but I expect him to make a bold bid. So that also leaves us with ROMANISED. This 3 year-old was an easy 2 ¼ length winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time and even though that was a shock win at 25/1 it can’t be discounted. He had U S Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt beaten in second and third so there is every reason to think he can uphold that form on similar ground. That was his first try over the trip and it clearly suited. He’s the highest-rated runner in the field (119) and being one of the few proven winners at this level in the field then it’s hard to ignore his chance – with the all the hype surrounding Without Parole he might just slip under the radar and go off a fair price.

 

5.00 – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

14/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/16 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
12/16 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
10/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/16 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
No runners from stall 1 placed in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Willie Mullins camp have loved to target this Royal Ascot race in recent years – winning it in 2012, 2015 and 2017. A certain Ryan Moore rode all three of those winners for the yard too so with Moore being booked to ride another for them here – CHELKAR – then this 5 year-old is hard to ignore. Yes, the horse has not been out for 603 days so has clearly had a few issues but this race would have been a target for sometime and I’m pretty sure connections would not be running him – especially with Moore riding – if they didn’t think he was ready to rumble again. This 5 year-old is actually making his debut for the yard after coming over from France and having won three of his 5 races then knows how to get his head in front. The step up to 2m4f is a total unknown as all his races have been over 1m2f or shorter but, again, connections must feel he’s got enough stamina to go close here. Of course, with Moore riding then this horse will be no value in the betting so those looking for alternatives will note Mullins has four others in the race – Meri Devie, Lagostovegas, Whisky Sour and Stratum. The quartet are all decent hurdlers and proven over this sort of trip so stamina issues are not a concern and with 13 of the last 16 winners of this race coming from a yard more famed for their National Hunt runners then the Mullins horses look to have massive chances. We’ve several other NH trainers on show, including the Pipe team who also have a good past record in the race – winning it three times in the last 16. They run. Percy Street. Others to note are the John Quinn-trained Look My Way, the Godolphin-owned White Desert and Stoute’s Dannyday, plus the only two proven course winners in the field are Sam Missile and Hassle. However, the other pick in the race comes from another top NH yard in Alan King – they run the useful COEUR DE LION. This 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and gets in here with just 9-1 and receives weight from most of the others. He’s a consistent performer on both the flat and over jumps, while we know he stays this trip having run Look My Way to a neck over 2m2f last time. He’s got a slight weight pull in his favour but, more importantly, the step up in trip to 2m4f here will be a big plus. He was closing all the way to the line last time and you feel with another 2 furlongs that day he’d have come out on top.

 

5.35 – Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
12/15 – Carried 8-11 or more
11/15 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
10/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Roger Varian, Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden camps have done well in this race over the years so their Mirage Dancer (Stoute), Autocratic (Stoute), Sharja Bridge (Varian), Muntahaa (Gosden) and Monarchs Glen (Gosden) will be popular. However, it’s been a race dominated by 4 year-olds in recent runnings so of the 16 runners that leaves us with just seven – Leshlaa, Monarchs Glen, Mirage Dancer, Eugino, Laraaib, Sharja Bridge and Yucatan. We’ve also got a royal runner in the race too with Fabricate the horse looking to give the Queen some Ascot delight here but at 6 years-old he does fall down on the key age stat. The Aidan O’Brien camp too this in 2016 and have a live chance again this year with the 110-rated Yucatan. This 4 year-old should find the drop into Listed company much more to his liking after contesting Group races of late, but he does have a bit to prove over trips further than a mile – he’s currently 0 from 5 over them. However, an interesting one for me is the Owen Burrows-trained LARAAIB. This 4 year-old is the only proven course and distance winner in the field and with just five career runs should have more to come. He returned from a break to run a decent second in the Group Three Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last month and with he expected improvement can go well. He won over this trip at the track last July and with fair Group Three form is another that should find this Listed grade right up his street. Big Country deserves to take his chance and would be a great Royal Ascot winner for the Mick Appleby yard but more is needed now up from handicap to Listed company. However, the other pick is the already-mentioned MONARCHS GLEN. This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the boxes and despite flopping last time out that did come in a Group One in Dubai. He’s won at Group Three level in the past and stays this 1m2f trip well too. The first-time hood is an interesting addition, while Frankie is an obvious plus in the saddle.

 

 

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