Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 18th June 2019)

2019 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

The curtain goes up on another ROYAL ASCOT with the normal bang and three Group One’s on the day with the Queen Anne Stakes, King’s Stand Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes the feature contests. Did you know that ALL of the last 17 King’s Stand Stakes winners were aged 7 or younger?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

More Royal Ascot 2019 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2019 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2019 Royal Ascot
  • 2019 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2019 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

2019 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2018Accidental Agent (33/1)
2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)

Queen Anne Stakes Trends

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Previous winners over 1 mile
13/17 – Had already won a Group 1 race
14/17 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/17 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/17 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (4)
8/17 – Won their previous race
8/17 – Favourites that were unplaced
8/17 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 1 winner from Stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

With ALL of the last 17 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then this is bad news for the 6 year-olds – Stormy Antarctic, Mustashry and Lord Glitters. Godolphin have a fair record in the race and they run three – Dream Castle, Mythical Magic and Barney Roy, with the last-named looking their best chance. This course winner showed an excellent turn-of-foot to win a Longchamp last time and is also a proven course winner after winning the 2017 running of the St James’s Palace Stakes. Accidental Agent will be a popular choice as he actually won this race 12 months ago too. This would have been a target all season and should be a lot fitter for his return run at Newbury (3rd) in the Lockinge. However, the winner that day – Mustashryhad 3 lengths to spare on Accidental Agent and 2 ½ lengths over the runner-up – Laurens who also lines-up again and really this Stoute-trained runner is the one to beat being the top-rated (121) runner in the field. However, he does fall down on that key age trend. The fifth in the Lockinge – LE BRIVIDOmight be the answer though. This Aidan O’Brien runner didn’t get the best of runs that day but finished well and almost took fourth. He’s a course winner after winning the Jersey Stakes here in 2017 and looks well worth another crack at this 1m trip. French raider – OLMEDO (e/w)is another to note – a French-trained runner has landed this race twice since 2010 and his yard have a cracking 57% strike-rate (4 from 7) with their runners at the track. Finally, Frankie is an interesting booking for the Dermot Weld runner – Hazapour. This 4 year-old was an easy winner of a Group Three at Leopardstown last time out and the yard have often done well with their limited runners at this meeting over the years.

 

3.05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2018 – Calyx (2/1 fav)
2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)

Coventry Stakes Trends

17/17 – Won their previous race
16/17 – Had never raced at Ascot before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Had between 1 and 2 previous career runs
12/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/17 – Won over 6f before
9/17 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
6/17 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/17 – Won by a Jan foal
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 7 winners between them in the last 17 runnings this race has been dominated by the Aidan O’Brien and Richard Hannon yards – and it looks to be more of the same again this year. The Hannon team run Threat, who was impressive in winning on debut at Newmarket and certainly looks a useful sort in the making – but that success did come over 5f. So, with two runs under it’s belt and also having proven winning form over this 6f trip the O’Brien runner – ARIZONA – edges it. This 2 year-old dotted-up at the Curragh last time out but an incredible 8 lengths and despite that form being hard to assess the fact he’s got some fancy entries this season already suggests connections like him. I’ll take him to add to the yards recent wins in the race in 2011, 2013 and 2016. Of the rest, the Hugo Palmer (33%), John Gosden (30%) and Charlie Appleby (33%) yards have top records with their juveniles at the track so their runners – Coase, Light Angel and Well Of Wisdom – can do best of the bigger-priced runners.

3.40 – King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners

2018 – Blue Point (6/1)
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 – Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 – Prohibit (7/1)
2010 – Equiano (9/2)
2009 – Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 – Equiano (22/1)
2007 – Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 – Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 – Chineur (7/1)
2004 – The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)

King’s Stand Stakes Trends

17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
14/17 – Aged 4 or older
14/17 – Had won over 5f before
12/17 – Finished first or second last time out
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
10/17 – Had run at Ascot before (7 had won at the track)
9/17 – Favourites placed
6/17 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/17 – Favourites that finished third
3/17 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/17 – 3 Year-old winners
2/17 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 10 of the last 11 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The likes of Sergei Prokofiev, Soldier’s Call, Imprimis and Equilateral are top sprinters in their own right and all are certainly capable of going well in this. However, it’s a contest that seems to have a bit of a duel feel to it in what could turn out to be the ‘Battle of the B’s’ – Blue Point and Battaash. The last-named is the top-rated in the field at 123 and bounced back to form last time out at Haydock when winning the Temple Stakes. That was his first run back from wind surgery after flopping a few times at the backend of last season so the signs are good that he’s back to somewhere near his best. However, he’s run twice at Ascot now and been beaten both times – including in this race 12 months ago, so that’s a worry for me. And the horse that beat him last year – BLUE POINT – is back for more. This Charlie Appleby runner has 3lbs to find on the ratings with Battaash, but he heads here in scintillating form after three wins at Meyden in Feb and March. He’s been freshened up with 3 months off since, with this race as the clear target. His form at Ascot reads well too – 4 runs and three wins. He also stays a bit further than this 5f trip and we can expect connections to make full use of that, especially if the ground does have a bit of give in it.

4.20 – St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2018 – Without Parole (9/4 fav)
2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 – Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
15/17 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
14/17 – Favourites that were placed
14/17 – Had won over a mile before
12/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
12/17 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10/17 – Won their previous race
9/17 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/17 – Had run at Ascot before
5/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
Just 1 winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 11 runnings
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4 or 5

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been another top race for the Aiden O’Brien yard in recent years – with 5 wins in the last 17. But this year they might have to play second fiddle as their hand doesn’t look to be the strongest with Circus Maximus, Van Beethoven and The Irish Rover in the race. The Gosden yard that won this race 12 months ago do, however, have a decent chance with two big chances in Too Darn Hot and King Of Comedy. Too Darn Hot has been runner-up twice this term – in the Dante Stakes and Irish 2,000 Guineas and has had quite hard races both times. Therefore, of the Gosden pair King Of Comedy, who has won his last two, might just have a bit more to offer. Those wins came at Yarmouth and Sandown, and he’ll need to step-up on that latest Listed win in this Group One, but he’s clearly thought capable of the leap-up. Frankie would have probably had the choice though as he rode both the Gosden runners last time and he opts for Too Darn Hot – read into at what you want, but they don’t always get it right. French raider – Shaman – and 2,000 Guineas third – Skardu – are certainly others to note, but it’s hard to get away from PHOENIX OF SPAIN. He beat Too Darn Hot in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time out but 3 lengths after powering away in the final furlong and there is every reason to think he can do so again. That win came off a 210 day break so there might even be more to come. He’s clearly improved over the winter after being a close second in the Group One Vertum Futurity Stakes at Doncaster last October.

5.00 – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Lagostovegas (10/1)
2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)

Ascot Stakes Trends

15/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
14/17 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
13/17 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
10/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/17 – Won their previous race
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
Just one winner (or placed) horse from stall 1 placed in the last 11 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Run over 2m4f then it’s no surprise this race has gone the way of yards that are more famed for their NH Runners in recent times. That looks likely to be the case here at the powerful Irish jumping yards of Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins could be slogging this one out. Elliott runs Mengli Khan, who was third in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival back in March. He’s run six times on the flat – winning once – but is certainly a high-class entry here that could easily be well in having not run on the level for many years. Elliott also runs BATTS ROCK (e/w) though and with Frankie Dettori booked to ride, this one might be the better value. He heads here in form, having won over hurdles at Downpatrick last month, but his flat record is decent too – 9 runs and six top three finishes. Of the rest, Mixboy, Kerosin, Ulster and Not Never are others to note, while it might be foolish to ignore the Nicky Henderson pair of Gunnery and The Cashel Man.The Jonathan Portman-trained Mancini looks primed to go well too after a good second at York and looks well worth a crack at this longer trip. Having said all that, it’s still hard to get away from the top record in the race that trainer Willie Mullins has – he’s won the last two runnings, and also four of the last seven. Also, Ryan Moore has been on three of those recent Mullins winners and they team-up again here with BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP. This 5 year-old was pulled-up last time out at Punchestown but prior to that had some decent form. He’s a former flat performer too when with Mick Channon – having run well at Listed level. The yard would have had a fair few to pick from to run in this, so the fact he’s their only runner looks a hint in itself. Yes, he might not be much value due to the Mullins- Moore factor, but he looks the safest call still.

5.35 – Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Monarchs Glen (8/1)
2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

13/16 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
12/16 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
11/16 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
11/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/16 – Had run at Ascot before
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
4/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 13 winners returned 7/1 or bigger

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a top race for the John Gosden yard in recent years – they’ve won 4 of the last 8, including 12 months ago. With that in mind the Frankie Dettori ridden – STAR OF BENGAL (e/w) – looks interesting. This 4 year-old was a good winner at Chelmsford last time out and prior to that was an easy scorer at Wolves. This will only be his fifth career run so should have more to come and the first-time cheekpieces can also help bring out further improvement. Of the rest, course winner Addeybb is another to consider, but is becoming a hard horse to win with these days and the jury is still out for me over this 1m2f trip for him. Last season’s Irish Derby winner – Latrobe – would certainly be a big player on that form. But he’s actually not won a race since (6 runs) so does have a fair bit to prove. Magic Wand and Elarqam will be popular too, but another yard that has liked to target this race over the years is Roger Varian and his old boss Michael Jarvis. They’ve two in the race – WILLE JOHN (e/w) and MOUNTAIN ANGEL (e/w). Both head here off the back of top recent runs, with course winner – Mountain Angel – having won his last two. Oisin Murphy rides and this improving 5 year-old looks worth a crack up into Listed company after a few good handicap successes.

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