Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 23rd June 2017)

2017 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

Into DAY FOUR at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Albany Stakes and the King Edward VII Stakes, but the two Group Ones on the card – the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes stand out as the feature contests – Did you know that 14 of the last 15 Coronation Stakes winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

More Royal Ascot 2017 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2017 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2017 Royal Ascot
  • 2017 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2017 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

 

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 – Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)

 

Albany Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
14/14 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
14/14 – Never raced at Ascot before
13/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
3/14 – Ran at Sandown last time
4/14 – Previous winner over 6f
4/14 – Winning favourites
The last 11 winners came from double-figure stalls
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 11-14 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: If the betting is anything to go on then this opening day four race looks to rest between two horses – Alpha Centauri and Fairyland. Both have caught the eye on recent runs and both head here unbeaten. Alpha Centauri is the slightly more experienced with two wins under her belt – the most-recent being a very impressive 5 length romp at Naas. With form on good-to-firm then this February-born grey filly certainly sets the standard. However, it’s not going to be easy from stall 1 and with ALL of the last 11 winners hailing from a double-figure draw then she’s got this key trend to overcome. FAIRYLAND is another from the popular and powerful US Wesley Ward yard. She won her debut at Keenland by an easy 3 ¼ lengths and despite that form being hard to translate it’s no secret connections like her. That win was over 4 ½ furlongs so she will need to cope with this extra yardage, but they clearly think she’s up to the task. She’s a February-born filly and ticks all of the key stats – of the two big players she looks the better value. There are 19 others in the race though! Wesley Ward also runs Princess Peggy so is not one to underestimate, but the betting should tell us which of their pair they fancy more, while the Harrington camp, who have Alpha Centauri, also run Whitefountainfairy. The Hannon yard has to be respected with 3 recent wins in the race – they run Natural, who won well on debut at Doncaster. The O’Brien stable won the race 12 months ago so their Ryan Moore-ridden Clemmie is another to note. She was a close third on debut at the Curragh, but is sure to have come on leaps and bounds for that. But the value against the two at the head of the betting could be the Jeremy Noseda-trained TAKE ME WITH YOU (e/w). This March-born filly was only third on debut at Newmarket, but these juveniles can improve bundles over their first few races so there should be a lot more to come. Draw 20 looks fine, while the Noseda yard know what’s required having won the race in 2005 and 2006 – the experienced Gerald Mosse has been booked to ride.

3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

 

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
13/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
11/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/14 – Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4-8 (inc)
10 of the last 11 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Based on the official ratings the Mark Johnston-trained Permain sets the standard off a mark of 113 and with the Johnston camp having won this race in 2007 and 2010 then he looks a big player. However, we last saw him running down the field in the Derby so needs to bounce back and probably still has a bit to prove over this trip with all his best runs to date coming over 1m2f. The Johnston team also run Frankus, but off a mark of 102 does have a bit to find with most of these. The boys in blue of Godolphin are having a cracking meeting and with three runners – Best Of Days, Best Solution and Wolf Country then they can’t be ruled out either. Best Solution was a fair 8th in the Derby, but BEST OF DAYS (e/w) could be the most interesting. He returns from a break, but was last seen winning the Group Two Royal Lodge at HQ and will love the quick ground. Yes, the step up from 1m to 1m4f is a big unknown, but breeding suggests it’s worth a crack and he could be dangerous with the in-form James Doyle riding. The powerful O’Brien yard run Sir John Lavery, who is clearly thought to be better than his sixth in the Lingfield Derby Trial last time, but his sole career win (3 runs) came in soft ground so does have a bit to prove. So, this could be set-up for another yard that has a cracking record in the race – step forward Sir Michael Stoute. The stable has won the race 3 times in the last 15 runnings, including 12 months ago, so their CRYSTAL OCEAN gets the nod. Third last time out in the Dante behind Permain, but was staying on well that day and is expected to be better now upped in trip. He’s won on a good-to-form surface and with only three career runs we can expect this 3 year-old to continue progressing – with all the key trends on his side then he’s got a lot going for him.

3.40 – The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

2 previous runnings
Quiet Reflection won the 2016 running for trainer Karl Burke
Muhaarar won the 2015 running for trainer Charles Hills
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a 15% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 5 from 106 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is just 1 from 31 (3%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: One of the newest races at the meeting, with only two previous renewals. We’ve another runner for the US-based Wesley Ward camp with Bound For Nowhere, who has won both his starts in his homeland impressively. Godolphin also have another strong hand with Blue Point and their newly acquired Harry Angel running in their famous blue silks. Blue Point is a proven course and distance winner after winning a decent Group Three last time out, and in the process had Harry Angel 1 ½ lengths back in second. The runner-up has since come out and dotted-up at Haydock so there should not be a great deal between the two. They will love the ground and look big players – Adam Kirby continues in the saddle on Harry Angel, while William Buick gets the leg-up on Blue Point. However, the one horse that the already mentioned trio have to beat is CARAVAGGIO. This unbeaten Aidan O’Brien-trained 3 year-old went into many a notebook 12 months ago at his meeting after running away with the Coventry Stakes and hasn’t let supporters down since. He’s won two more races since then, including on his reappearance at Naas. He’s already a Group One winner too after taking the Phoenix Stakes last season, while acts on any ground. With Ryan Moore in the saddle that’s a further plus, while it’s interesting that connections also reach for the blinkers for the first time to further keep his mind on the job. The Godolphin pair will be there to exploit any chinks in the favourites armour, but to me Caravaggio still sets a big standard for the others to aim at and if turning up with his A-game will be hard to beat.

 

4.20 – Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

 

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
10/15 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
7/15 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
7/15 – Were unplaced last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
2/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
10 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just 1 horse placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 11 runnings
5 of the last 11 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (2)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This shouldn’t take long – in short, it will be a huge shock if this season’s English & Irish 1,000 Guineas winner – WINTER – isn’t adding this Group One to her haul. She was well-backed to land the English version back in May at Newmarket and showed that win wasn’t a fluke by following up at the Curragh – beating Roly Poly, who runs again here, by an easy 4 ¾ lengths. With 9 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher then draw 7 is ideal too, while her biggest threat – Precieuse – is drawn 1 – we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings! The Gosden horse – Dabyah – might be the only one that can spoil the party after winning the Dubai Duty Free last time at Newbury in decent style. She’ll love the ground, but her only try over a mile saw her finish third. But ,with that in mind, the connections of Winter are expected to make this a true test with the likes of Roly Poly and Hydrangea likely to set this up for their stablemate.

5.00 – Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m

Queen´s Vase Recent Winners

2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

12/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
10/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
6/14 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
5/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
10 of the last 11 winners came from a single-figure stall
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 12 wins from the last 14 runnings between them the Stoute, O’Brien and Johnston yards have farmed this race in recent times. No runner for Stoute this year so it could pay to just focus on the Aidan O’Brien and Mark Johnston entries. Wisconsin and BELGRAVIA (e/w) are the O’Brien runners, while Johnston also has two – Mister Manduro and TIME TO STUDY (e/w). All four command respect but with Moore riding Belgravia then this 3 year-old looks their main hope. He was last seen running fourth at Navan, but was hampered that day and actually did well to finish only 2 ¾ lengths off the winner. He won well over 1m4f the time before and with a trouble-free run, and the expected improvement, can go well on ground he’s already won on. The Johnston runners are a bit harder to split, so if stakes allow then they there is no harm coupling them up. They were actually first and fourth in the same race last time with Time To Study coming out on top that day. The winner gave Mister Manduro only a pound there so off level weights we should see a similar outcome with only 1 ¼ lengths between the two. Of the rest, the Dermot Weld yard are always to be feared at this meeting. They don’t send many over so the ones they do should be noted – Haripour. An easy winner last time at Navan, albeit in maiden company, but if there is a trainer that is going to spoil the O’Brien/ Johnston stranglehold on this race then it could be Mr Weld.

 

5.35 – Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

14/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/14 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
11/14 – Placed last time out
11/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/14 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
8/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/14 – Had run at Ascot before
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc last 6 runnings)
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We end day four with this tricky middle-distance handicap as 19 horses line-up. However, with ALL of the last 14 winners aged 4 or 5 then we can probably rule out the five 6 year-olds in the race. Having won over at least 1m2f is another plus, while with 11 of the last 14 winners placed last time out this is another key trend to have on your side. 10 of the last 14 winners also had raced at least twice this season, while in terms of trainers to look for then Hughie Morrison, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute are the ones to note – they’ve won the race 9 times between them in the last 14 years. No runners for Morrison, but Stoute runs the 4 year-old Mainstream, who will be a popular winner for the Queen, while Johnston has Solider In Action engaged. With 10 of the last 11 winners coming from a double-figure stall then that’s a plus for the consistent Mainstream (11), but not great news for Solider In Action (2). Mainstream looks sure to be involved but has made a habit of finding a few too good in recent races, so might be more of a play for the place backers. Roger Varian runs three – Shabeeb, Wadigor and Appeared – they all to have decent chances, but the proven course and distance winner APPEARED (e/w) might just have an advantage with that track win under his belt. He won by an easy 4 ½ lengths that day and despite going up a big-looking 10lbs there could be a lot more to come. He seemed to love the quick ground that day and being that was his first run back after being gelded then he’s clearly got his mind back on racing! Of the rest, Top Tug is interesting from the Alan King yard and was a nice winner at Goodwood last time over 1m6f so we know he stays further, but does fall down on the age trend being a 6 year-old. Manjaam, Star Storm and Mistiroc are the other proven course and distance winners in the field so also have that as an advantage.

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