Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY FIVE (Sat 24th June 2017)

2017 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Chesham Stakes and the Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 4.20.

Did you know that 11 of the last 14 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners were aged 5 or younger?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

More Royal Ascot 2017 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2017 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2017 Royal Ascot
  • 2017 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2017 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

Enjoy!

 

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

 

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
13/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Ran over 6f last time out (8 won)
12/14 – Had just 1 previous career run
11/14 – Were foaled in March or earlier
9/14 – Won their previous race
9/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/14 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
8 of the last 11 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We get going on the final day with more 2 year-old action as we get a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future. Trainers Mark Johnston (Nyaleti) and Richard Hannon (Elysium Dream) have won the race twice each in recent years, while the Aidan O’Brien have taken the pot in 2011 and last year with Churchill. It’s been a fair race for the favourite in recent years with 4 of the last 14 market leaders going in, while 9 of the last 14 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting to suggest we don’t get many shocks here. O’Brien runs SEPTEMBER (e/w) and is sure to be popular after an easy debut win at Leopardstown (5 ½) and with Ryan Moore riding. That was also over 7f so we know she stays, plus being a filly gets a handy 5lbs from most of the others. She could be anything and based on that win and the fact the yard took this 12 months ago with the classy Churchill and with their decent filly – Maybe back in 2011, then she looks the safest call. Of the rest, the Charlie Appleby camp have a cracking 27% record with their 2 year-olds at the track and have already been on the scoresheet at the meeting with their juveniles so their pair MASAR (e/w) and Gold Town command plenty of respect too. As does the Michael Bell-trained Highlight Reel. Why? Well, the Bell camp also boast an impressive record with their youngsters here (33%). He was a solid second on debut at Lingfield and is sure to have come on for that so could go well at a fair price with the Bell juveniles often improving a lot for their runs. Finally, it’s worth noting that the Paul Cole has a good record in the race too – the veteran trainer has won the prize 4 times in total, with Berkshire in 2013 being his most recent. With that in mind his unraced Abandon Ship should not be underestimated – it’s interesting that connections send him straight here having not raced before and is the only one in the field without a previous run.

3.05 – Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f


Wolferton Handicap Recent Winners

2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)

Wolferton Handicap Key Trends

12/14 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
11/14 – Aged 4 years-old
11/14 – Carried 8-11 or more
10/14 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
9/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/14 – Had run at Ascot before
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
2/14 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 11 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tough renewal, but plenty of key trends and stats to take in. In contrast to his good 2 year-old record at the track, trainer Charlie Appleby is only 2 from 39 with his older horses here so based on that his Kidmenever is overlooked, despite running a fair second last time out at Meydan. John Gosden (Maverick Wave), Sir Michael Stoute (Khairaat) and the Roger Varian (Central Square) all have decent records in the race so their runners are respected too, while with 11 of the last 14 winners aged 4 years-old then this is a hefty trend to have on your side too, especially as there are only five 4 year-olds in the line-up – Scarlet Dragon, Kidmenever, Muntazah, Khairaat and Dragon Mall. Of those five the Stoute-trained KHAIRAAT makes plenty of appeal having dotted-up at Chester last month. Yes, a 13lbs rise for that looks harsh, but he won very well and with only four career runs his progression can continue. The other interesting one is the Roger Charlton-trained AYRAD (e/w). Yes, he falls down on a few of the key trends, like being a 6 year-old. But that can be overlooked based on the fact the Roger Charlton team have a stonking 29% record with their older horses at the track – oh, and a certain Ryan Moore has been booked to ride. Okay, he’s also not been out since last October, but was running in decent Group 3 and Listed contests so will find this drop back into a handicap easier. He stays further than his 1m2f trip, while the ground will be fine no matter what happens with decent form on a variety of different surfaces.

3.40 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

 

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/14 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
13/14 – Placed last time out
12/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6)
10/14 – Had run at Ascot before
8/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 7 winners)
5/14 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
5/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
9 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
7 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With the Sir Michael Stoute team loving to target this race then last year’s winner – DARTMOUTH – might be hard to beat again. The yard has won the last three runnings of the race and 6 times in the last 14 years. So, despite also having Across The Stars in the race, with Ryan riding Dartmouth then everything looks in place for a big run from the Queen’s horse. He took this by a head from the classy Highland Reel, who has already won at this meeting this year, 12 months ago and heads here in tip-top form after a win over Simple Verse in the Yorkshire Cup. This 5 year-old is not a flashy sort and only seems to just do enough, but he’s tough and if getting into a battle he won’t go down without a fight. Any rain is fine, but has also won on good-to-firm – he’s the joint highest-rated in the field on 118 (with Wings Of Desire) and with an ideal preparation is the one the others have to beat. Across the Stars won the King Edward VII here last season and can’t be totally dismissed with the trainer’s record in the race and should be a lot better for his first run back at Newbury last month. The O’Brien camp also have a fair record in the race – winning it in 2008 and 2011 – so their Idaho is respected too. He was last seen running sixth in the Coronation Cup and that form has since been franked with the winner – Highland Reel – winning the Prince Of Wale’s Stakes here earlier in the week. This will be his first run at Ascot, but no real issues on that score and is another that should be a lot better for his recent return run. We’ve another from the Roger Charlton team here in SECOND STEP (e/w) and with their 29% record with their older horses then this 6 year-old can do best of the rest. He was a nice winner last time at Goodwood and will love the quick ground. Yes, more is needed upped in grade, but Jamie Spencer knows the horse well and looks a fair option for the place players. Of the rest, Gosden runs three – Muntahaa, Western Hymn and the lightly-raced Wings Of Desire, who despite not being out since last August could have more to come with only 6 career runs. Finally, Dai Harraild might also appeal for a place after his York romp last time out. More is needed in this better race, but he did it well and we know he stays further so could be running on when others have cried enough.

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

 

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 – Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

 

13/14 – Previous distance (6f) winners
11/14 – Failed to win their last race
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Had run at Ascot before
11/14 – Previous Group Race winners
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
8/14 – Won by a UK-based yard
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/14 – Winning favourite (joint)
5 of the last 12 winners were Irish-bred
7 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 13/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: One of the feature races of the meeting here as we get another chance to see some of the fastest horses on the planet in action. LIMATO will be hoping to give trainer Henry Candy another win in the race after the team took this with Twilight Son 12 months ago. Ryan Moore rode for them that day so the fact he’s been booked to ride here is another plus. This classy 5 year-old sets the standard on his easy Group One July Cup win last season, plus we know he stays a bit further after winning in France over 7f too. Quick ground is perfect and being a winner of 8 of his 15 starts, plus finishing in the top two in 12 of his 15 races, suggests he’s going to be hard to keep out of the mix. Off a rating of 122 he’s the clear highest in the field, with the next best the 117-rated The Tin Man. Yes, he’s got a bit to prove after flopping last time out at Meydan and didn’t really get home over a mile the time before at Sandown. Therefore, he’s had excuses, but the return to 6f looks a good move by connections and being a past course and distance winner and being runner-up in the 2015 Commonwealth Cup then we know he loves the track. Ryan riding is the icing on the cake. Of the rest, The Tin Man will be better for a recent fifth at York and the form of his Champions Sprint win here would certainly make him a big player and should not be far away. Tasleet beat him the last day by an easy 6 lengths, but on this better ground and the Haggas horse having the fitness edge that day I think they will be a lot closer today. Tasleet will also be running here at Aascot for the first time, so we’ll have to see how the track suits, but is another that sets a decent standard and should be in the mix. MAGICAL MEMORY (e/w) ticks that box too and was only 2 ½ lengths behind Tasleet in that Duke Of York Clipper Stakes last time. He’ll be better for the run and was 4th (only beaten ½ a length) in this race 12 months ago – looks a big player and my idea of the danger to the selection. Of the others, we can expect Librisa Breeze to be fully wound-up on his return and is a past course winner, while the French raider The Right Man is a sprinter making a name for himself after landing a top Group One in Meydan last time and should not be underrated.

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

 

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

16/17 – Ran sixth or better last time out
17/17 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
17/17 – Had no more than 4 runs that season¬¬
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Had won a race over 6f before
11/17 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/17 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
7/17 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 12/1
9 of the last 11 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 11 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure draw
The last SEVEN winners came from a double-figure stall
In the last 7 runnings all of the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 6 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 29 winners returning a double-figure price

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Outback Traveller took this race 12 months ago, but is 4lbs higher this time and hasn’t won a race since. Draw 23 should be fine though (was in 28 last year), but it is worth noting the ground was also good-to-soft last year. Loads of key trends to help narrow down the 31 runners though, especially the draw. As we’ve seen a lot this week those drawn low have struggled in races and that’s backed up again here with 8 of the last 11 winners coming from a double-figure berth, while since 1980, 29 winners have hailed from a draw in double-figures – including the last 7 runnings! With 9 of the last 11 winners also carrying 9-3 or less in weight then this is another key trend to note, while with 16 of the last 17 winners having finished 6th or better last time out then this should help too. 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 4 or 5, so we can probably rule out any of the 6, 7 & 8 years-olds – of which there are 13. Taking all those main trends into account there are four standouts – NORMANDY BARRIERE (e/w), PROJECTION (e/w), MUNTADAB (e/w) and HARRY HURRICANE (e/w). Normandy Barriere, who is drawn in 26, is a past course and distance winner so we know the track suits and is only 4lbs higher than when winning here last month. He looked to have a bit more in-hand that day too and has been kept fresh with a 6 week break. The ground is fine and with form figures at the track that read 1-9-2-4-1, then he looks a cracking option with Andrea Atzeni a further plus in the saddle. Projection comes from the shrewd Roger Charlton yard, that has a 29% record at the track with their 4+ year-olds, and is another that ticks a lot of the key trends. He will be fitter for a recent sixth (of 14) at Newmarket on his first run back, while with just 9 career runs is one of the lesser exposed sorts. Trip and ground look ideal, as does draw 28. He’ll also have the talented Kieran Shoemark claiming 3lbs off his back, which is another huge bonus in a race that margins can often be tight. Harry Hurricane and Muntadab both come here of fine seconds last time out and despite this being tougher could easily surprise at bigger odds, especially Muntadab, who sports the first-time visor and also has the champion jockey, Jim Crowley, booked to ride. Of the rest, Godolphin’s Culturati will be popular, but draw 3 doesn’t look ideal.

5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

 

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

12/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/14 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
8/14 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
7/14 – Had run at Ascot before
4/14 – Won by a NH yard
4/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Willie Mullins
8 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
The last 11 winners ALL came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We end the meeting with the longest race over the five days as the stayers are back in action over this gruelling 2m5f trip. Therefore, it goes without saying that we get a chance to see a lot of the National Hunt yards on show, including the powerful Willie Mullins team who run Tuesday’s easy Ascot Stakes winner – THOMAS HOBSON – again. He dotted-up by an easy 6 lengths just 4 days ago and based on that effort will be all the rage to follow-up. Connections clearly feel he’s come out of the race well enough to try and land a famous Royal Ascot double – something the Mullins-trained Simenon achieved back in 2012 and after travelling so well last time there is a chance that effort didn’t actually take much out of him. He looked very impressive on Tuesday and despite those against him clinging to the fact Ryan Moore is not riding this time (rode him 4 days ago) Martin Harley is an able deputy and Moore is probably obliged to ride US Army Ranger for O’Brien anyway. This horse certainly brings a bit of class to the race and being rated 112 has a clear 12lbs in-hand on Thomas Hobson, but in races over these extreme distances on the flat the ratings don’t always work out as they should. It would also be a worry that this O’Brien horse has not won for 7 races now and been a beaten favourite in 5 of those 7. The trip is another obvious concern. Yes, he could love it and be a potential cup horse to take on the likes of Order Of St George, but until he’s proven over it I’d rather be sticking with Thomas Hobson, who we know stays. Fun Mac, Qewy and the recent Chester Cup winner Montaly are others to note and should not be far away, while the Mark Johnson-trained ORIENTAL FOX (e/w) is another past winner of this race (2015) and being the only proven course and distance winner in the field is worth a saver too.

 


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