2017 Northumberland Plate Betting Trends

Newcastle horse racing tips

Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables, sponsors John Smith’s had supported the race since 2003, but in 2017 the sponsorship reigns will be taken over by Stobart Rail.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 1st July 2017.

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

14/15  – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
14/15 – Finished fifth or better last time out
13/15 – Came from stall 14 or lower
13/15 – Aged 6 or younger
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/15 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/15 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/15 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/15 – Won their previous race
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 9 winners)
3/15 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/15 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 14/1
Note: The 2016 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

 

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 11 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Don’t forget this ultra-competitive race is now run on the All Weather surface at Newcastle so certain trends might be taken with a pinch of salt. That said, we’ve still some significant stats to take into the race that should apply no matter what the surface. With 14 of the last 15 winners having won over at least 1m4f on the flat this is key, while the same amount finished 5th or better last time out. Coming from stall 14 or lower has produced 13 of the last 15 winners and over that same period have been aged 6 or younger. In fact, 11 of the last 15 finished in the top three last time out and with 10 of the last 15 carrying 8-12 or less then these are the key trends we are going to focus on. Being aged older than 6 we’ve three that fall down on that score – Clever Cookie (9), Winterlude (7) and Corton Lad (7), while of the 20 runners there are 9 that finished worse than 5th last time out. The Brian Ellison-trained Seamour and the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Flymetothestars have both been popular in the ante-post markets in the last few weeks. Both have big claims based on recent form with Seamour running well in two Listed races and was a close second in this race 12 months ago, while Flymetothestars is a two-course winner at the track and was impressive the last day here when winning by 2 lengths. The second that day – Endless Acre – franked the form by running second in the Ascot Stakes last week so is sure to be popular based on that. However, Seamour is 4lbs higher than last year, while Flymetothestars is a massive 9lbs higher than his recent win. Yes, both look big players and should be involved, but at around 5/1 neither of them look great value. Godolphin took the race 12 months ago and so their pair Good Run and Natural Scenery are others to note, but with them both finishing sixth last time out they fall down on the recent form trend. So, the ones that tick the most trends to us are – LORD GEORGE, MY REWARD, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and SAM MISSILE. Yes, Lord George, My Reward, and Sam Missile are drawn high in 17, 18 and 19, but the James Fanshawe-trained pair get in with light weights and head here off the back of encouraging runs, while My Reward was a good winner last time out at Ripon. Lord George also has track experience, while jockey George Wood takes off a handy 3lbs. The final one – Champagne Champ (2) – is better drawn and Paul Hanagan is an interesting jockey booking so of those at a bigger price looks decent value. Trained by Rod Milman, they are also putting on the cheekpieces for the first time and was last seen running a decent third in a competitive handicap at Goodwood. At the prices there is no harm in throwing four darts at the race and having an interest in all of the four main ones mentioned. Of the rest, the consistent Higher Power is another from the James Fanshawe yard, that have three in the race, while the hat-trick seeking Jaameh is also sure to be popular after wins at Chester and Newmarket.

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