Newmarket Trends & Free Tips: Fri 27th Sept 2019

Newmarket racing tips and trends

Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket racecourse to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest – Enjoy!

 

Friday 27th September 2019

 

1.50 – Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

8/8 – Had won over 1m before
8/8 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Won between 1-3 times before
6/8 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
6/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
5/8 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/8 – Aged 3 years-old
3/8 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/8 – Trained by William Haggas
2/8 – Trained by John Gosden
0/8 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013
William Haggas won the race in 2014, 2017 & 2018
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This is a race that the Gosden and Haggas yards have done well in recently. Gosden has a few leading chances with She’s Got You, with Frankie riding, plus Lady Lawyer – both head here on hat-trick bids and can go well. However, the Haggas runner – MASQSAD – might just hold the edge based on what we’ve seen so far. Yes, she’s been highly-tried in Group One company the last twice but this drop into a Listed contest will be a lot easier and the last time she raced in this grade she dotted-up by 5 lengths. The drop back to a mile will be fine too, but has won over further so that proven stamina is sure to be well used. Of the rest, Chaleur, is another to note, while Ryan Moore catches the eye booked to ride the consistent David O’Meara runner – AGINCOURT (e/w) – so she might be worth a small saver too.

 

2.25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

13/14 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
11/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/14 – Aged 3 years-old
8/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
The horse from stall 12 has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Aidan O’Brien sends over Simply Beautiful here and coming from this powerful yard then she will be popular. However, with just one win from her 11 career starts she’s not an easy horse to win with and might get found out again by something improving past her. Shailene was a good winner at Newbury last time out and deserves to take her chance in this higher grade. Spirit of Appin and Rasima are others that have shown a good level of form but this is another race the John Gosden yard have done well in of late – winning 4 of the last 7 runnings. With that in mind their PROMISSORY gets the verdict, with Frankie riding. This 3 year-old was a fine runner-up at Goodwood in the March Stakes (1m6f) last time out and prior to that won easily over this trip at Donny. The return to 1m4f looks a good move and with Frankie riding this is the icing on the cake.

3.00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

14/15 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time
13/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
9/15 – Won by a March or April born foal
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won over 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/15 – Won by the Hills yard
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 3 winners)
2/15 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/15 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
1/15 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
8 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 8 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 5-8 then the likes of Hot Touch, Festival Day, Daahyeh and Stylistique have this stat on their side. Of that bunch the Roger Varian runner – Daahyeh will be a warm order after her close second in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh – a repeat of that run will make her hard to beat. However, there looks to be little value in siding with her at the price and there seem to be some suitable runners to take her on with – most notably Cloak Of Spirits, Blissful, who comes from the Aidan O’Brien yard that have done well in this race before, Under The Stars, FESTIVAL DAY and STYLISTQUE. The former was a good winner at Chepstow last time out (6 lengths) and despite this being a big step up in grade did it very well that day and connections clearly feel she’s up to this sort of level. With just two career runs she should have more to come. Stylistque will be popular too with Frankie riding. The pocket Italian has ridden two of the last three winners of this race too and despite not winning yet has gone close in her last three races. The return to 7f is a plus and hoping the magic hands of Frankie can eke out a bit more improvement in her.

 

3.35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

14/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/15 – Officially rated between 111-118
12/15 – Had won a Group race before
11/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Had won over 1m before
10/15 – Won 4 or less times before
10/15 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
10/15 – Failed to win last time out
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
6/15 – Aged 4 years-old
6/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 4 runnings)
2/15 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/15 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
The last 4 winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 6 (2)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some familiar faces on show here – notably Zaaki, Anna Nerium, King Of Comedy and Happy Power. Of that quartet the Gosden/Dettori runner, King Of Comedy, looks to have a big say and it’s interesting that he’s back down to a mile after running 4th in the Juddmonte Stakes last time out. This ease in grade will help and it will be a shock if he’s not going close. However, the Godolphin runner – BENBATL – is rated 5lbs higher than King Of Comedy and looks the one to beat. Yes, he’s got to give 4lbs away in weight so really there is little between them. Many will side with the fitness edge of having more runs this season and King Of Comedy, but Benbatl is a horse that’s gone well fresh too so the 335 day lay-off isn’t too much of a worry. We last saw him running the mighty Winx to 2 lengths in the Cox Plate in Australia, but is also a three-time Group One winner. The drop back to 1m might not be totally ideal but Oisin Murphy is sure to make full use of the proven stamina of this Saeed Bin Suroor runner. Of the rest, Zaaki, who represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard can go well too with Ryan Moore riding.

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