Newmarket Racing Tips and Trends (Fri 25th Sept 2020)

Newmarket racing trends and tips

Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest – Enjoy!

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Newmarket Free Racing Tips & Trends (Fri 25th Sept) 

 

1.50 – Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

9/9 – Had won over 1m before
9/9 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Won between 1-3 times before
7/9 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
7/9 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
6/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
5/9 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/9 – Aged 3 years-old
3/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Trained by John Gosden
2/9 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/9 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013
William Haggas won the race in 2014, 2017 & 2018
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The William Haggas yard have a good record in this race so their UMMALNAR is certainly one for the shortlist. This 5 year-old has clearly had its issues after being off the track since July 19, but was last seen winning easily at Ascot and the fact she’s been kept in training suggests there is plenty of ability there still. She’s draws in stall 3 too and with 7 of the last 9 winners coming from stalls 7 or lower this is a further plus – James Doyle rides. The other main ones that are drawn low are the Stoute-trained Romola, who is already a winner at Listed level, while the Haggas yard also have Tomorrow’s Dream, who is drawn 6. Cloak Of Spirit is the top-rated in the field (106) and if running to the level that saw her run second in the G1 1,000 Guineas here in June, then she’d take all the beating. However, she’s only won once from 8 runs and now 7 runs without a victory so despite having an obvious-looking chance has been expensive to follow, while draw 15 might not be ideal. Frankie and Gosden team-up with the unbeaten Bizzi Lizzi and could be anything, but this is a big step up on what she’s achieved to date. So, the other of interest is the Roger Varian runner – FOORAAT. She’s run well in two G3 races this season so this drop in grade will help and with just four career runs should also have more to come. Draw 7 is ideal too and William Buick rides.

 

2.25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

14/15 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Aged 3 years-old
8/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
The horse from stall 12 has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some nice middle-distance fillies on show here and with the Sir Michael Stoute yard having a good record in the race – their KATARA looks an improving sort that has to be noted. She’s won her last two in great fashion at Kempton and Newmarket (July), while the fact she holds a G1 entry at Champions Day at Ascot is another sign connections feel she’s useful. She’s a bit to find on the ratings but could just have the scope to improve further and add this G3 to her Listed win from last time. The clear form pick is the Sir Mark Prescott runner – Alpinista – who ran the classy Love to 5 lengths at York in the Yorkshire Oaks last month and she had Franconia back in sixth that day too – that last-named is trained by John Gosden, who has won 4 of the last 8 renewals. I’d be a tad worried that Alpinista is yet to win over this 1m4f trip though. Sea Of Faith and Antonia De Vega are, however, proven distance winners so staying this trip will be fine and both head here off the back of good wins. Course winner – Queen Daenerys – makes up the six runners, but is the lowest-rated on the card so would need to find something.

 

3.00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/16 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time
14/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Won by a March or April born foal
8/16 – Won over 7f before
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 4 winners)
2/16 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/16 – Won by the Hills yard
2/16 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/16 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
1/16 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Isabella Giles sets the standard on her 7 length Prestige Stakes romp at Glorious Goodwood last month, but that running came on soft ground so any rain would be a plus. She’s the one to beat on that running and having won three of her four career runs is one of the most experienced in the field – as mentioned if the rain comes, then she might be hard to beat. Santosha actually beat Isabella Giles at Ascot in July, but that came over 6f and they jury would be out on whether she’s ging to stay this 7f longer trip on her first try over it. She also needs to bounce back from a poor run at York last time out, but in her defence was slowly away that day. The call is for the Aidan O’Brien runner – MONDAY – to continue her upward curve. She’s only had two career runs, but was a good winner last time out at Leopardstown in a Listed race. That also came over this 7f trip so that’s a plus and she also holds some fancy future G1 entries to suggest connections think she’s above average. Nazuna and Alba Rose make up the five runners.

 

3.35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

15/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/16 – Officially rated between 111-118
13/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had won over 1m before
11/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Failed to win last time out
11/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won 4 or less times before
10/16 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
10/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
6/16 – Aged 4 years-old
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 5 runnings)
3/16 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
3/16 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
Benbatl won this race in 2019
4 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 6 (2)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some fair sorts in here for this G2 – that include the likes of CD winner Top Rank, Zabeel Prince and the promising lightly-raced Tilsit. However, this looks a bit of a match-up between last year’s winner – BENBATL – and this season’s 2,000 Guineas winner – Kameko. Frankie Dettori teams-up with his old retainer, Goldolphin, to ride Benbatl and this looks a race that connections have hand in-mind for a while. He’s not been out since February but is a horse that often runs well fresh so the lay-off isn’t a massive concern. He took this race by an easy 5 lengths last year too and being rated 125 does seem to have 5lbs in-hand on the official figures on his nearest rival – Kameko. This Andrew Balding runner has had issues over his best trip all season after winning the Guineas over 1m. He didn’t stay the 1m4f Derby trip, so connections dropped him back to 1m for the Sussex Stakes and then ran over 1m2f in the Juddmonte International – but he’s finished fourth in all his last three races!  The return to this track looks a good move though, but he’s untried on ground with any degree of ‘soft’ in the description, so any further rain might be seen as a negative too. He’s clearly a talented horse, but, for me, just seems to have lost his way a bit since that Guineas success, so Benbatl is preferred. Of the rest, a chance is taken on TILSIT (e/w), mainly as the horse is the least exposed in the line-up and having won his last two is going in the right direction. This is a big step up again, but she’s a G3 winner already and does get a handy weight allowance being a 3 year-old.

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