Newmarket July Meeting Trends & Tips – DAY TWO (Fri 13th July 2018)

Newmarket July Meeting Tips and Trends

The three-day 2018 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (13th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman’s Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stagedid you know 12 of the last 16 Falmouth Stakes winners came from stalls 5 or lower?

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!


Newmarket July Meeting – Day Two,
Friday 13th July 2018

 

1.50 – bet365 Handicap (Silver Bunbury Cup) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

Only three previous runnings
Parfait win the race in 2017
Swift Approval won the race in 2016
2 of the last 3 winners were aged 4 years-old
All three previous winners carried 9-4 or more in weight
2 winning favourites

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Swift Approval landed this race in 2016 and with Silvestre De Sousa booked to ride then he’s one for the shortlist being rated a pound lower than that win too. However, it did come on soft ground and is now ten races without a win. Saluti and Maksab are the two other course and distance winners in the field so enter the mix, but top jockey Ryan Moore has a 20%+ record with riding 4+ year-olds at the track so his mount WAR GLORY gets the call. Trained by Richard Hannon, this 5 year-old has been knocking on the door of late over 1m but the drop back to 7f looks a plus. Quick ground is fine too and his rating of 90 is starting to look an attractive mark. Gallipoli and Zap are running for the same owner, so they clearly want to do well in the race but of the pair Gallipoli looks the one in better form after a fair second at Newcastle and William Buick catches the eye with a rare ride for the Richard Fahey yard.

 

2.25 – Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

14/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/14 – Had raced at least twice before
13/14 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
13/14 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won by a UK-based yard
9/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
9/14 – Had won over 6f before
8/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by the Hannon team
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc last 2)
1/14 – Drawn in stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Clemmie (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings of this and he’ll be trying to make it three – this time with Gossamer Wings. This 2 year-old was last seen running a close second in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot – form that would see her go very close. She’s one of the more experienced runners in the field with four outings so far but being a May-born 2 year-old she have this trend against her – 13 of the last 14 winners of this were born in Feb or March. With that in-mind, the Godolphin-owned LA PELOSA gets the call. This Feb-born juvenile was touched-off by only a neck in the Albany Stakes at Ascot last time and despite meeting the winner here – Main Edition – again I think she can turn the tables. With only two career runs there should be more to come from this Charlie Appleby filly, while on debut she saw-off another runner in the race – Chaleur – by an easy 3 lengths so should have that one’s measure again. Yes, Main Edition has won all three completed starts and looks a very promising sort, but I just felt La Pelosa can turn the tables here having learned a lot from that last run. The final one to note is the Frankie-ridden Angel’s Hideaway.Dettori has won this race four times in total and was only two lengths behind Main Edition and La Pelosa last time.

 

3.00 – bet354 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

10/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
9/11 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
8/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/11 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/11 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
5/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including last 4 of last 5 runnings)
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Marzouq (6/1) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We can expect several of these to have their supporters. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team-up with Zaaki and this combination are always loved by punters. This 3 year-old was last seen running a fair third in the Group Three Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot and so this drop into a handicap will make life easier. He was, however, beaten by Poet’s Prince two starts ago at Chelmsford so would have a bit of ground to make up with that Mark Johnston-trained runner. Sticking with the Johnston yard, they loved landing this prize in recent years – winning it four times in the last five runnings. Poet’s Prince has since been beaten by another Johnston runner in Communique so both their runners can’t be ruled out with the yard’s excellent record in the race. However, another horse that has lines of form with the Johnston pair is the John Gosden-trained WISSAHICKON. This 3 year-old beat Poet’s Prince by an easy 13 lengths last time at York and there is every chance there is more to come. He’s now won three of his four runs to date and despite a 7lb rise in the ratings looks a horse that could potentially go onto better things. Chief Ironside and Beringer are others to note, especially the first-named who was a nice winner over course and distance at the end of last month. He’s up 7lbs for that though and was beaten just over 4 lengths by Communique the time before at Newbury. I’d also be a tad worried the William Jarvis yard are only 1 from 24 with their 3 year-olds at the track.

 

3.35 – Qipco Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

16/16 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
15/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16– Won over at least 1 mile previously
12/16 – Won from stall 5 or lower
12/16 – Had 2+ runs that season
11/16 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
9/16 – Favourites placed
6/16 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/16 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
5/16 – Previous Group One winners
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 4)
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Roly Poly (6/4 fav) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Yes, the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of the Falmouth Stakes and in Clemmie they’ve a useful filly to go to war with. However, since beating Nyaleti in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here and then the Cheveley Park Stakes last season she’s not really progressed. She’s been well beaten twice this season by the classy ALPHA CENTAURI and really it should be more of the same this time. Rated 122, Alpha Centauri is 11lbs clear of Clemmie and the rest of the field and the way this Jessie Harrington-trained 3 year-old demolished a good field at Ascot in the Coronation Stakes will make her hard to beat. She’s now 2-from-2 over a mile and despite having never raced at Newmarket there are no reasons to think it won’t suit. It really should be Alpha Centauri first and the rest well back. The hat-trick seeking Nyaleti will be a candidate to fill one of the places after good wins here and in the German 1000 Guineas last time, while Threading landed the silver medal behind Alpha Centauri at Ascot and is another that could easily repeat that feat here.

 

 

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