Newmarket July Meeting Trends & Tips – DAY THREE (Sat 11th July 2020)

Newmarket July Festival Free tips and trends

Horse racing trends expert Andy Newton takes you through the LIVE ITV races on the third and final day of the 2020 Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday (11th July).

 

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/18 – Had won over 7f or further previously
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
10/18 – Unplaced in their last race
9/18 – Favourites unplaced
8/18 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
3/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Winning Favourites
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The Richard Hannon yard has won 3 of the last 7
Motakhayyel (5/1) won the race in 2019

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Finest Sound will be popular here after a cracking second in the Britannia Stakes at Ascot, but is up another 7lbs here so more is needed. 14 of the last 18 winners carried 9-4 or less, so that’s a negative for Laser Show and Surf Dancer, who both have 9-7 to carry, while the Roger Varian yard are only 5 from 56 (9%) with their 3 year-olds here so their Establish has this to overcome. Ryan Moore stands out riding Ziggle Pops for the Hannon yard, who have a good record in the race – they also run Oh Purple Reign. while of those at bigger prices – INTO FAITH (e/w) could go well with the David Menuisier yard having a good 40% record here with their 3 year-olds. She should be better for a recent 6th at Newbury and won’t mind it if any more rain comes. Eastern World, for Godolphin, is another to consider, but the main call is HAQEEQY. This John Gosden runner is 2-from-2 this season and looks the sort to have more to come now upped to a mile (from 7f). It’s his first time in a handicap so more on his plate, but has done little wrong so far and Jim Crowley is a top jockey booking.

 

2.25 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV

10/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
7/10  – Had won over at least 7f before
7/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Drawn in stalls 10 or 13 (2 each)
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Graceful Magic is the only course winner in the field, while over this 7f trip we’ve only four past winners at this distance from the 11 runners – Odyssey Girl, Wine Flight, Alabama Whitman and SPRING OF LOVE. It’s the last-named that interests me the most. This Godolphin runner was a nice winner two runs back at Newmarket (Rowley), but had excused last time out. The ground was much quicker but more importantly she clipped heels with another horse at the start and as a result lost all chance. She’s clearly none the worse for that as she’s out again just 2 weeks later and having won on good-to-soft on debut then the ground should also be much better for her this time. The Charlie Appleby yard also won this race in 2016 and 2018! Of the rest, Indie Angel has a consistent form look to her name and gets in with a very low weight, while there could be more to come from the lightly-raced pair Wine Flight and Fantial.  

 

3.00 – Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over at least 6f previously
16/18 – Placed in their last race
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/18 – Won their latest race
12/18 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/18 – Won by either a March or April foal
9/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
8/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Winning Favourites
4/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/18 – Winners from stall 3
5/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 7 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
Mystery Power (7/1) won the race in 2019

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With a 31% record with their 2 year-olds at the track the Charlie Appleby team have to be respected in races like this. They run MASTER OF THE SEAS here, a horse that won well on debut here (Rowley) last month. The form of that race has been franked with the second winning since too – William Buick rides and with that debut win also coming on soft ground then conditions will be fine. Aidan O’Brien sends Hudson River over and with Ryan Moore riding will have a lot of fans. This juvenile won on debut at the Curragh recently and looks another Ballydoyle runner with a future – the O’Brien yard have a decent 24% record with their 2 year-olds here. Devious Company is 2-from-2 and has to enter the mix too, while Seventh Kingdom was impressive on debut too at Doncaster. Saint Lawrence is another to note and will be ridden by James Doyle, who has a stonking 34% record riding 2 year-olds at the track. But the other of interest is KING ZAIN. Frankie rides for trainer Mark Johnston here and this one did well on debut to win easily at Kempton. He represents a yard that also have a 26% record with their juveniles at the course and the fact they’ve booked Frankie is a good sign they like this one.

 

3.35 – Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners…..

2019     Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011      Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010      Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009      Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008      Marchand d’Or (5/2 fav)
2007      Sakhee’s Secret (9/2)
2006      Les Arcs (10/1)
2005      Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004      Frizzante (14/1)
2003      Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002      Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
14/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
13/18 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
10/18 – Placed last time out
9/18 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained the last 2 winners)
2/18 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/18 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A great renewal of this Group One and the main talking point will be the clash of the Commonwealth Cup winner – Golden Horde and the Diamond Jubilee hero – Hello Youmzain. Both are rated 118, but with Hello Youmzain having to give 6lbs away that swings it in the favour of GOLDEN HORDE. This 3 year-old beat a good field in the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot last time and is a horse that handles all ground. He’s still only had 7 career runs (3 wins) and looks to have returned this season as an improved horse – he rates the one to beat for me. Frankie rides Sceptical for Irish handler Denis Hogan and he was a close third to Hello Youmzain at Ascot last time out and should go well again, but is yet to race on ground with any degree of soft in the description. Threat can be expected to have come on for it’s first run back (5th) in the St James’s Palace Stakes, while Khaadem is closely-matched with Hello Youmzain and Sceptical too, after running fourth behind them at Ascot. A t bigger prices the Aidan O’Brien runner – SOUTHERN HILLS (e/w) – might out-run it’s odds. The yard have won this race 5 times in the past and despite having a lot of ground (7 ½ lengths) to make up on Golden Horde after it’s last run, that did come off a year off. Any rain would help too, and he might just leave that last run behind and run into a place.

 

4.10 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over 7f previously
17/18 – Raced 3 or more times that season
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/18 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
11/18 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
9/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
9/18 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/18 – Placed in their last race
4/18 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Vale Of Kent (13/2) won the race in 2019

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Vale Of Kent won this race last year and with Frankie riding again will be popular – but the horse is rated 9lbs higher this time and hasn’t won a race since, so does need to bounce back. Being drawn 14 or higher in recent years has been a plus – so that’s good news for MOTAKHAYYEL, NO NONSENSE, RAISING SAND, RED BOND, KASBAAN, CARDSHARP and BLACKHEATH. Carrying 9-4 or less is another good stat to note – so of the 20 runners the top five on the card fall down here. The one I like here though is ARIGATO (e/w). He only just falls outside the draw stat in 13, but has won his last two races very well and could have more to come. He beat another of today’s runners – Blown By Win – by a length on the Rowley Mile course here last month and is only 5lbs higher. He also won on the July Course last season and Josie Gordon seems to get on well with the horse – with only 8-8 to carry he could be dangerous. Motakhayyel and Mutamaasik were first and third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Ascot last time and should go well too, but with Ryan Moore riding the Hannon runner – MUTAMAASIK – I’ll take this one to reverse the form. He’s a CD winner here and actually won the race from the group of horses he was in at Ascot last time, despite coming third. That also came off a 278 day break so can be expected to come on for it and has only been raised 2lbs. Draw 11 is fine too and Moore is the icing on the cake. Of the rest, Sir Busker showed a good turn-of-foot to win the Silver Hunt Cup last time – he’s 6lbs higher this time. Spanish City and Raising Sand often go well in these sorts of races and the Gosden runner Godhead has won well this season – winning both starts.

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