Newmarket Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Friday 13th Oct 2017

Newmarket horse racing tips

More LIVE ITV horse racing on Friday 13th October for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket. Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to find the best profiles of past winners – Enjoy!

 

 

Newmarket – Friday 13th October 2017


1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

12/14 – Had won over 5f previously
11/14 – Ran within the last 30 days
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/13 – Rated 98 or more
10/14 – Had raced 5 or more times
10/14 – Foaled in March or later
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
10/14 – Won at least twice or more before
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
7/14 – Filly winners
6/14 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Raced at Doncaster last time out

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Charlie Appleby team boast an impressive 26% record with their 2 year-olds here and they’ve a decent chance of enhancing that strike-rate with the 107-rated SOUND AND SILENCE. This Godolphin runner has won two on his last three, including a Group Three over in France by an easy 3 lengths last time out and really on that form should be hard to beat. Yes, that win came in heavy ground and conditions are likely to be a lot quicker here, but he landed the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot back in June on good-to-firm ground to show that he’s a versatile horse. Yes, being a Group winner he’s got to give weight away all-round, but being rated 107 then he’s still got a bit in-hand on that front and being the only proven course and distance winner in the field gives him a further advantage. Of the rest, the Aidan O’Brien team also have a good record with their juveniles here (27%) so their Battle Of Jericho is considered, but now into Group company does seem to have a bit to find. Pursuing The Dream gets the fillies allowance too so being rated 100 and receiving 6lbs off the selection this this Jamie Osborne runner is weighted to go close too and should find this easier than the Group Two Flying Childers, that he was 4th in last time. The final one to note is To Wafij. Roger Varian’s charge was 6th behind Sound And Silence last time at York, but was only beaten 3 ¾ lengths so can make his presence felt again.

 

2.25 – The Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

13/13 – Had between 1-2 wins already
12/13 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Had between 1-3 career runs
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Won last time out
10/13 – Foaled in March or later
10/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
9/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
8/13 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Had won over 7f or further before
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A competitive renewal of this Group Three and another race that the Charlie Appleby team – who, don’t forget, have a 26% record with their 2 year-olds at the track – have a runner. Expressly is their entry this time and despite having a bit to find on the ratings, she’s a filly that’s won her last two. Yes, she’ll need to step up a fair bit on her recent win at Chelmsford in a Class 4 contest, but she did it nicely that day and the fact connections are pitching her at this level suggest they think she’s up to the task – could go well at a fair price. The Aidan O’Brien yard also send over a strong team with Butterscotch and I Can Fly – with the last-named the most interesting. Ryan Moore rides, and with just one career run – that she won – then there should be a lot more to come. She’s another that is clearly held in high regard by connections and with that debut win coming just 2 weeks ago then we can expect that run to have brought her on a lot too. She did it by an easy 4 lengths that day at Dundalk over 7f so the trip and conditions here will be fine – looks a big player. The Hannon team have a decent record in the race so their hat-trick seeking Anna Nerium is respected and is already a proven winner at this level. However, as a result has to give 3lbs away to the others and this Group Three looks a lot tougher than the one she took at Salisbury. Gavota was a close third in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes here two weeks ago and commands a lot of respect based on that. Roger Charlton’s filly should be bang in the mix if running to that level again. But the call here is for DARK ROSE ANGEL. Frankie Dettori rides this Simon Crisford-trained filly, who we last saw running second in the Group Two May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. That was over a mile, but this drop back to 7f will be fine, while the winner of the May Hill– Laurens (runs in the Fillies Mile) – is a useful sort that would surely be well-fancied for this race if entered. That overall form looks decent and if reproducing that level then Dark Rose Angel can be expected to run well.

 

3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

14/14 – Won a Listed (4) or Group (9) race previously
14/14 – Won over 7f previously
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/14 – Raced 3 or more times that season
11/14 – Won 3 or more times previously
11/14 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
11/14 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/14 – Officially rated 113 or higher
8/14 – Priced 7/1 or lower
8/14 – Placed in their last race
7/14 – Favourites placed
6/14 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
5/14 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (2) last time out
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
1/14 – Filly/Mare winners

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Group Two Challenge Stakes, with several chances. Dutch Connection & Massaat are all respected, while the hat-trick seeking Gifted Master is a proven course and distance winner here at HQ and heads here in rude health. However, they’ve all got a bit to find on the ratings with Henry Candy’s Limato, who should find this drop back into Group Two company much more to his liking. He was a close third at this level last time at Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes – going down just ½ a length – while the time before ran the classy Harry Angel to 1 ¾ lengths in the July Cup. Yes, some may feel that without a win this season and at the age of 5 then he’s on a bit of a downward curve after some spectacular runs back in 2014 and 2015, but to his credit he’s been mixing it up at the highest level since and not been disgraced. A few months break would have freshened him up and providing the ground doesn’t get any softer then he’s the one to beat. However, the main danger to Limato can come from the John Gosden-trained DABYAH (e/w), who gets a handy fillies allowance. She was last seen running fourth behind Winter in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot back in June so has been kept fresh for this, while the return to 7f is a big plus. She’s 3-from-3 over this trip and is already a Group Three winner over this distance. Frankie Dettori, who has ridden her to all three of her career victories is back in the plate and looks the value call against the Candy horse. Finally, of those at a bigger price then it would be foolish to ignore the Aidan O’Brien runner Cougar Mountain with Ryan Moore riding.

 

3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

13/13 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Finished in the first two last time out
12/13- Yet to win a Group 1
12/13 – Foaled in Feb or later
11/13 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top three
10/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had won between 2-3 times before
9/13 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Had won a Group race before
6/13 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites (or joint)
6/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/13 – Irish-trained winners
3/13 – US bred
3/13 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/13 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We can expect the Mark Johnston-trained Nyaleti to back another bold bid from the front here, but you just feel that he’s had a very hard season already and at some point it’s going to catch up with her. She’s also got a bit to prove still over this 1m trip, with all her wins so far coming over 6f. Frankie, who’s got a good record in the race, teams up with trainer Jeremy Noseda to ride Quivery and despite having a bit to find on these terms could go better than her odds might suggest. She hung a bit last time out when 4th at Goodwood, but the way she was staying on suggests this 1m trip will suit. French trainer – Freddy Head – sends over Efaadah and should not be underestimated, while the recent May Hill winner Laurens is sure to be popular after running on well to take that race over 7f last time. The powerful O’Brien camp have a strong hand too with Magical and Happily entered. Both locked horns just a few weeks ago in France with Happily coming out on top that day and it could be more of the same here. She’s won at this level the last twice, while any rain would not be a worry for her. On the official ratings she’s the one to beat and looks sure to be in the shake-up. However, there is one horse that seems to be improving leaps and bounds at the moment and that’s the Karl Burke-trained ELLTHEA. (e/w). This 2 year-old has dotted up the last twice at Doncaster and then over in Ireland and there could be more to come. She’s won with plenty in-hand both times while despite this being a step up in trip to a mile for the first time she certainly wasn’t stopping over 7f last time so there could be even more to come over this trip. Her breeding suggests she should just about be fine over the mile, while any rain would be fine too. Colm O’Donoghue, who was riding her last time, comes over from Ireland for the ride.

 

 

4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

3 previous runnings
3/3 – Had won at least twice before
2/3 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/3 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
2/3 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
2/3 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/3 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
2/3 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
0/3 – winning favourites
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Jeremy Noseda is 0 from 28 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett is just 3 from 47 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Bell is just 2 from 41 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton won the race in 2016
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only a handful of previous runnings to go on, but in a 3 year-old only race there are some interesting trainer stats. The Michael Bell (Winston C), Jeremy Noseda (Intrepidly) and Ralph Beckett (Here And Now) yards don’t have the best records with their 3 year-olds at the course so these are overlooked, but, in contrast, the Charlie Appleby and John Gosden camps have much better records – operating at 24% and 21%. Appleby runs First Nation, while Gosden has Crowned Eagle running so these are certainly two to consider. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute, who won this race in 2015, team -up with Melting Dew and after a string of seconds is another to note. As well as the already mentioned First Nation, the Godolphin team also run High End, who is yet to finish out of the first two. But with 9-7 to carry he’ll have to give weight away all round and that won’t be easy in what looks a competitive race. Intrepidly would be interesting now upped to 1m4f and can be forgiven the last run as he got worked up before the race. Frankie catches the eye in the saddle, but the concern is the 0-from-28 record at the track with his 3 year-olds by trainer Jeremy Noseda. Humble Hero and the consistent Arab Moon are others to note, but the way TORCELLO (e/w) powered home here over this course and distance last time caught the eye. This Andrew Balding runner is improving with every race and despite being raised 6lbs for that last win he did it by an easy 3 lengths to suggest he’s up to the rise. Melting Dew and First Nation look the dangers and are worth small savers too.

 

 

 

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Original quote: “Hajaam – Will love conditions up at Haydock and I would like to think he is well-handicapped. Is well at home so hoping he should go close here with Paddy Bradley riding in this apprentice handicap.” 1st 8/1, Charlie Fellowes

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