Horse Racing Free Tips & Trends: Sat 30th Nov 2019

Horse Racing Free Tips

Another bumper Saturday ahead for jump racing fans as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in four races, plus they are also up at Newcastle for two. The newly-named Ladbroke Chase Trophy (the Hennessy Gold Cup to any old-timers out there) – is the main event from Newbury – a race that 15 of the last 17 winners have been aged 8 or younger!

While up at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes centre stage as the Nicky Henderson-trained Buveur D’Air looks to land the prize for a third time.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Seven previous runnings
3 of the last 7 winners aged 5 years-old
2 winning favourites (both joint)
6 of the 7 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-6
Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tricky race to unravel here – last year we saw Champ land the prize. Nicky Henderson, who trained that winner 12 months ago, will be looking to follow-up and his DOWNTOWN GETAWAY looks his best chance. This 6 year-old did well last season, but found the step up to 3m at Aintree in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle too far. The drop back to 2m4f here looks significant and he’s a horse that is sure to be well-tuned up for this return. Soft ground is fine and a light weight will help in conditions. Henderson could also have Soul Emotion, The Cashel Man and Colonial Dreams in the race. Nicholls, who won this race in 2017, has Dan McGrue and this 7 year-old was a nice winner at Plumpton earlier this month and shouldn’t be far away. Of the rest, another yard to note is the Alan King team and they could have a chance here with MR PUMBLECHOOK (e/w). This 5 year-old gets in with a very low weight and it’s interesting that connections are also putting on a 7lb claimer. He was 10 lengths behind Dan McGrue last time but that was his first run of the season and can be expected to get a lot closer this time. Star Of Lanka and Duke Street are others that would have a chance on their best form.

2.25 Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/13 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
10/13 – Irish, French or German bred
10/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Officially rated between 126-134
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/13 – Won last time out
7 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: ALL of the last 13 winners of this race had raced at least 4 times over hurdles – that rules out the likely favourite – Epantante – who has only run three times over the sticks. The one I like here though is ELVIS MAIL, who won with a lot in-hand in a good race at Ascot last time. From the Neil Alexander yard, you feel the horse would be a big shorter if trained by Nicholls or Henderson, but has now won 3 of his 6 starts over hurdles and looks a hurdler on the up. Soft ground is fine and jockey Lucy Alexander knows the horse inside out, having ridden him in all his runs. Of the rest, Scarlet Dragon and the Dan Skelton runner – Antunes – are feared, while at a slightly bigger price Fanfan Du Seuil should be a lot fitter for a recent fourth at Ayr after a break.

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

15/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
15/17 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/17 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
11/17 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (28 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some decent trends to take into the Ladbroke Trophy. Yes, we saw a 10 year-old win the race last year but with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or younger this is a key stat that knocks out a fair few – including the fancied pair of Ok Corral (9), & West Approach (9), plus Two Taffs (9), Robinsfirth (10), Yala Enki (9), Yorkhill (9), Beware The Bear (9), Joe Farrell (10), Regal Encore (11) and Shantou Village (9). That’s 10 of the 22 runners with a big negative. With 13 of the last 17 also placed in the top three last time out, then of those that remain these are the ones worth keeping on side – Walt, Daklondike, Brave Eagle, The Conditional, Dingo Dollar, Borice, Elegant Escape and Cabaret Queen. The last-named is sure to be popular coming over from the Willie Mullins yard that won this race in 2017. With trainer Colin Tizzard having won 2 of the last 3 runnings then it’s no shock to see him mob-handed again – he’s got Robinsfirth, West Approach, Mister Malarky and Elegant Escape. Of that lot, it’s the last two-named that catch the eye. Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Mister Malarky and is able to claim 3lbs – he’ll be a lot fitter for a return run at Ascot and was a top winner at the track last January. However, if this turns into a bit of a slog in the ground then the Tizzard former Welsh National winner – ELEGANT ESCAPE (e/w) – will have the stamina to cope. Yes, it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry, but he’s got that weight for a reason – he’s the top-rated (160) runner in the field. He’ll be fitter for a recent run at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase (2nd) and ran well to be second in this race 12 months ago. Okay, he’s 5lbs higher this time, but is only 7 years-old and can be expected to still be improving and stronger this season. The first-time blinkers are an extra addition and they could also help eke out a bit more. The Henderson yard are another that have done well in recent years in this race and, like the Tizzard team, have a big hand too. They run Ok Corral, who looks set to go off favourite, plus the likes of On The Blind Side, Beware The Bear and Brave Eagle. Ok Corral is clearly useful on his day, but was last seen flopping in the 4m race at the Cheltenham Festival – albeit getting badly hampered that day. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the lay-off isn’t a worry, but with only 3 chase runs to his name I’d just be worried about his lack of experience – especially in a race like this. His age (9) is also a potential negative when looking at the trends. Of the Henderson runners – Brave Eagle – might be the value. Henderson likes to use James Bowen, so the fact he’s been booked is a plus and having won 4 of his 5 chase starts then he knows how to win. He does, however, have a lot of weight and returns 6lbs higher, so will certainly need a career-best, but could still be on the up. Two Taffs ran well on his return run (3rd) and will be popular too, while last year’s third – Dingo Dollar – is another to note. He’s 2lbs lower than last year and another year older at 7 years-old. But is now 7 races without a win and just feel he’s got a bit to prove. The Conditional gets in with a light weight and is feared, but the other pick is the Emma Lavelle runner DE RASHER COUNTER (e/w). This 7 year-old will be spot-on for this after a return run last time out at Uttoxeter (6th), but is also a proven course winner. With just 6 runs over fences there should be more to come and the booking of Ben Jones to claim 5lbs will help. The horse ticks a lot of the main trends, including age, rating and weight, plus has winning form in ground ranging from good-to-soft right through to heavy.

3.40 – Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Officially rated between 126-136
10/17 – French bred
10/17 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/17 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/17 – Placed in their last race
8/17 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 13 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Lady Buttons (5/2 fav) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson yard have a good recent record in the race so their Whatswrongwithyou has to be considered despite coming here off a break. The Nicholls runner – Magic Saint – has been popular in the betting all week too and with the yard another that’s done well in this contest he has to be one for the shortlist. CHESTERFIELD (e/w) ran on well at Carlisle last time behind a fair sort on Hell’s Kitchen and is yet to finish out of the first three from his four runs over fences. He gets in here off the same mark and can be expected to run his race again – he’s been placed in the top three 17 times from 28 runs. Festival winner, Croco Bay, plus Double W’s and Theo are others to consider, but in recent years those at the foot of the handicap in this race have done well. With that in mind the Dan Skelton runner – ASHOKA (e/w) might be worth chancing. This 7 year-old returns from a break but has won fresh in the past and has won 4 of his 9 chase starts. He returns 5lbs higher but is a horse that should have more to come and his trainer – when with Nicholls – would have known a lot about finding winners in this race.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)


2.05 –
BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/17 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
15/17 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
14/17 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
14/17 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
11/17 – Won their last race
10/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/17 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/17 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/17 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 11)
3/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
Buveur D’Air has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only five runners, but really it will be a shock if the former Champion Hurdler – BUVEUR D’ AIR – isn’t taking this. This 8 year-old has won this pot for the last two seasons and is rated a clear 13lbs higher than his nearest rival – Silver Streak. Barry Geraghty comes up to ride again and that is a clear tip that the horse is ready to rumble again – he can take and begin his preparation for another tilt at the Champion Hurdle in March. The versatile Lady Buttons is a past CD winner here so loves the track and could surprise getting 7lbs off Silver Streak and Buveur D’Air, so I’ll take the Kirby runner to fill the silver medal place. Of the rest, Cornerstone Lad would also have his supporters in the forecast markets and is another CD winner, while Nelson River looks booked for fifth barring accidents to the others.

 

3.20 – BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

14/15 – Didn’t win their last race
13/15 – Irish bred
13/15 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
12/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Aged 8 years-old
4/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Richards
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Jonniesofa is a past course winner that is lightly-raced for a 9 year-old and can go well. Top Ville Ben will be better for his return run (5th) and Wetherby, plus will also find this easier than the Charlie Hall Chase last time. If it turns into a slog, then Captain Redbeard would be one to have on side too. We’ve also got last year’s first and second in the race – Lake View Lad, who won this race, and Captain Chaos, who was runner-up. There was only 2 ¾ lengths between them that day and both look to have been laid out for this. Lake View Lad is a big danger and loves Newcastle – his form figures at the track read an impressive 1-2-1-1 – and is a horse that runs well fresh so the break isn’t a worry – he can go well. But the call here is KILFILUM CROSS (e/w). The Henry Oliver yard are going well at the moment and this 8 year-old returned over a trip shorter than ideal at Stratford last time out. He still ran well to be third that day and the reports are that last season’s Kim Muir runner-up has come out of that contest well. The step up in trip will help and he gets into this better race with a much lighter weight (10-12) – he carried 12-1 last time, so that made that return run look even better.

 

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