Horse Racing Free Tips & Trends: Sat 1st Dec 2018

Horse Racing Free Tips

Another bumper Saturday ahead for jump racing fans as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in four races, plus they are also up at Newcastle for two. The newly-named Ladbroke Chase Trophy (the Hennessy Gold Cup to any old-timers out there) – is the main event from Newbury – a race that 15 of the last 16 winners have been aged 8 or younger!

While up at Newcastle the Fighting Fifth Hurdle takes centre stage as the Paul Nicholls-trained Irving looks to land the prize for a third time.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Six previous runnings
3 of the last 6 winners aged 5 years-old
1 winning favourite (joint)
5 of the 6 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Old Guard won the race 12 months ago
Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson-trained Champ is sure to be popular here, having won his last two, but does return from a break so would need to be fully wound-up. With 50% of the last six winners of this race aged 5 years-old and also 5 of the last 6 winning with between 10-10 and 11-5 in weight then Champ also have these two stats against him. One horse that doesn’t though is the Philip Hobbs-trained WHO’S MY JOCKEY. Well, in answer the horses name – it’s none other than champion jockey – Richard Johnson – who is riding him. Yes, he finished down the field last time here but that came over 3m and he simply didn’t see it out. The drop back to 2m 4 1/2f here will suit and we can also expect him to be fitter for those two recent runs. The Hobbs team have also won this race in the past. Of the rest, recent winner Speedo Boy is another to note with just 10-5 to carry, while there will be a lot of interest in the classy Barters Hill – a past CD winner, that is making his return to the track. He’s a horse that’s had a lot of issues though, so I’d rather be a watcher until we know he retain all his old ability.

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y ITV

12/12 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
9/12 – Irish, French or German bred
9/12 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/12 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/12 – Had raced at Newbury before
6/12 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Aged 5 years-old
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/12 – Won last time out
7 of the last 11 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some interesting sorts heading to post here. The Henderson yard have a decent 28% record with their hurdlers at the track and also have a good record in this race (3 wins since 2009) so their Whatswrongwithyou will be popular. He’s the only CD winner in the field too and looks sure to go well. However, with 11 of the last 12 winners aged 6 or younger this 7 year-old has a big trend to overcome. The Ben Pauling yard won this race last year, so their classy Global Citizen is interesting too, but with topweight of 11-10 it’s not going to be easy. Alan King is another yard that has history in the contest (winning it in 2016) so their recent winner Lisp can be considered too, while recent winners, Ballymoy, Whatmore and What’s Occurring are also going to have their supporters. However, the call here is to side with the Paul Nicholls-trained MONT DES AVALOIRS. The yard took this pot in 2011 and after a recent run behind (2nd) the classy Maria’s Benefit should be spot-on for this. He has form with Global Citizen and Ballymoy from last season but meets that pair on much better terms this time. He ticks a lot of the main stats and the Nicholls yard are overall in decent shape.

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

15/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
14/16 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
12/16 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/16 – Rated between 140 and 151
10/16 – Had a previous run that season
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (27 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Plenty of trends to get stuck into ahead of the ‘big one’ with horses aged 8 or younger having the best recent record which is bad news for the likes of The Young Master (9), Go Conquer (9) and Sizing Tennesse (10). 13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top three last time out, while 12 of the last 16 carried 10-13 or more in weight. With all that in mind, the two at the head of the betting – Elegant Escape and THOMAS PATRICK tick a lot of boxes. The pair met were separated by just ½ a length last time at Sandown and with a 5lb pull in favour of Thomas Patrick here then it should be a fascinating renewal. Both are also proven course winners and with 50% of the last 16 winners of this race having landed a chase race at the Berkshire track then this is another plus ahead of their chance. Dingo Dollar and Ms Parfois are other course winners that tick a lot of the main trends so can’t be ruled out, while the Harry Fry-trained American was popular in the race last year but, don’t forget, he was pulled-up that day so has a bit to prove. The Paul Nicholls-trained Black Corton is another to consider and is sure to make a bold bid from the front but it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry – only the likes of Denman and Trabolgan have won this race in recent years with such a burden. Nicky Henderson has won the prize twice since 2012 and will be looking to add to that with BEWARE THE BEAR (e/w). He’s anther course winner here and won first time out last season so the 224-day break isn’t a big worry. He also returns from a wind op and if fully tuned-up can go best of the bigger-priced runners.

 

3.35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/16 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – French bred
9/16 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
9/16 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
9/16 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
8/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Rock On Rocky, Top Gamble and Bigmartre are all proven course and distance winners here so command respect. If the ground gets any softer then that would increase the chances of Top Gamble and his yard (Kerry Lee) won this race in 2015 so know what’s required – Richard Johnson is an eye-catching jockey booking so this is certainly one for the shortlist. Oh, the yard also run Shear Rock so any market support for this one should be noted too. Bigmartre hails from the Harry Whittingham yard that boast a stonking 44% record with their chasers at the track. He flopped last time though and the yard had a big odds-on shot turned over in the week, so I would like to see their horses running a bit better. If back to his best can’t be ignored though. Harry Fry, who has his horses in good order, won this last year so his Space Oddity is another to consider but does head here off the back of a fall so might need to brush up his jumping. Forest Bihan and Baby King, from the in-form Tom George yard are others of interest but the call here is LADY BUTTONS. The Philip Kirby yard are in great form at the moment and this 8 year-old caught the eye when winning well at Wetherby last time out over hurdles. He’s back over fences here but is won 2 of her 3 runs over fences and could have more to offer over the bigger obstacles.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – BetVictor Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

16/16 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
15/16 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
14/16 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
13/16 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
13/16 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
10/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/16 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/16 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of last 10)
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4)
2/16 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

JUICESTORM VERDICT: In recent years some might have said this race has lacked a bit of sparkle – not this year! We’ve the current champ and two-time Champion Hurdle winner in BUVEUR D’AIR lining-up again and top marks to the Gordon Elliott yard for sending over one of their talking horses – Samcro. Add in last season’s Supreme Novices’ winner – Summerville Boy then it’s a fascinating renewal. Unless you’ve been on Mars then you’ll know that the Samcro bubble burst last time out for him after another runner here – Bedrock – got the better of him at Down Royal, with many now questioning if he’s got the speed for 2 miles at this level, or should he go chasing. Well, we’ll find out here. He’s still a big talent and the Elliott team will be keen to show that, however, coming off the back of that last run I would much rather play it safe and side with Buveur D’ Air, who – don’t forget – has now won his last 11 races! He’s also had a wind op over the summer and really, he’s a horse that probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves. If he can land the Champion Hurdle again this year, then he’ll be entering the Festival Hall of Fame and joining the likes of Istabraq and See You Then. He’s rated 9lbs higher than Samcro and 13lbs higher than Summerville Boy at this stage of their careers, plus being a past winner of the race is the only proven CD winner in the field. A cracking contest, but I’m sticking with the champ!

 

3.20 – BetVictor Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

13/14 – Didn’t win their last race
12/14 – Irish bred
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
11/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Aged 8 years-old
4/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 8/1
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 12 of the last 14 winners carried 10-12 or more in this race then of the 12 runners only the top six on the card qualify – Lake View Lad, Big River, Templehills, Testify, Baywing and Otago Trail. The last-named is also a proven winner of this race, after landing the spoils in 2016 but has been off the track for 665 days so has clearly had some issues. Yes, he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past, but he’ll need to carry 11-12 too and that won’t be easy after a long lay-off. The Venetia Williams yard are just 1 from 17 in the last few weeks too so that’s not a great sign. The Neil Alexander yard are going well so their consistent Lake View Lad, who is also a past CD winner, can go well and rates a big danger, but it’s interesting that 11 of the last 14 winners of this race had run within the last 6 weeks. Of those mentioned with 10-12 or more it’s only TEMPLEHILLS (e/w) that has run in the last 6 weeks. Okay, he fell last time out too but was running a fair race at the time and had prior to that had gone well this season. He should be fitter than most and with 4 wins over fences from 13 starts has a good wins-to-runs ratio. Of those at the foot of the weights, Ballydone is another course winner that rarely runs a bad race, while Bishops Road stays well and returned to form to run a decent second last weekend at Haydock.

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