Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY THREE (Thurs 3rd Aug 2017)

Glorious Goodwood free tips and trends

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 1st to Sat 5th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day THREE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Richmond Stakes, Lillie Langtry Stakes, plus the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares.

 

 

DAY THREE – Thursday 3rd August 2017

 

1.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f192y ITV

14/14 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
13/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated between 91-99
11/14 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/14 – Had raced at Goodwood before
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 4 runnings)
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings
7 of the last 11 winners came from stall 10 or lower
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
You’re Hired (9/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just like the previous two days we get going with a tough opener as we move swiftly onto day three. 13 of the last 14 winners of this race had run in the last 4 weeks though so that helps a bit with the likes of Hold Sway and Leader’s Legacy – two of the three Godolphin runners – having this against them. They boys in blue’s other runner is Mutarabby, who is the mount of Jim Crowley and of their trio looks interesting. The champion jockey doesn’t ride for his boss – Hamdan Al Maktoum – on Mukalal which is odd, but maybe this is a tip in itself. Crowley’s mount was a good winner last time out at Chelmsford when he beat the aforementioned Mukalal by ½ a length, but after running on strongly that day over a mile you feel this extended 1m1f trip will see MUTARABBY (e/w) confirm that form of just 27 days ago. It’s also worth pointing out the Mark Johnston team have won this race 4 times in the last 14 years – including twice in the last 4 runnings – so, despite their double-figure prices, their runners Morning Suit and Monticello are certainly worth a second glance. The Queen also has a live chance with the Michael Stoute-trained Frontispiece. This lightly-raced 3 year-old gets in here with just 8-4 and with only three career runs should have a lot more to offer – 11 of the last 14 winners also carried 9-0 or less in weight. We’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 in the last 14 years so Mukalal also has this trend to overcome, but, in contrast, the horse from stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 11 – Kings Gift fits the bill here and hails from the very much in-form Michael Dods yard. But with 11 of the last 14 winners rated between 91 and 99 then we’ve actually only 7 runners that fit the bill – Archetype, Addeybb, Mukalal, Leader’s Legacy, Mutarabby, Good Omen, Twin Star and Grey Britain. Addeydbb is sure to be popular with Ryan Moore riding and has caught the eye when winning his last two races, including beating Mutarabby two starts ago at Haydock. However, there was only ½ a length between them that day and there is every chance to think the second has improved a fair bit since so at the prices looks by-far the better value. Of those seven mentioned GOOD OMEN (e/w), who has won two of his last three looks interesting for the David Simcock camp, as does ARCHETYPE (e/w), who could still be ahead of the handicapper after being just 6lbs higher for a recent Sandown win. I’ll take this trio against the field.

2.25 – Markel Insurance Fillies’ Stakes (Registered As The Lillie Langtry Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

12/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/14 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
11/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/14 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Had run at Goodwood before
7/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
California (9/2) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Yes, maybe not the best renewal of this Group Three, but it’s certainly a very competitive one. A good place to start is the draw as 8 of the last 11 winners have hailed from stalls 4, 5 or 6, so if this is to be repeated then horses Dubka, Dawn Horizons and Wild Irish Rose look to have a lot going for them. 10 of the last 14 winners have also been 3 or 4 years-old so the 5 year-olds – Lucy The Painter and Endless Time – have this stat to overcome. It’s also a contest that has seen 11 of the last 14 winners race at least twice before that season, so this is not good news for Dawn Horizons, Diamonds Pour Moi, Harlequeen and Aljezeera. The last key trend to note is that 11 of the last 14 winners were placed in the top three in their previous race. Of those left then Wild Irish Rose, Melodic Motion, Natural Scenery and Alyssa fit the bill. All four are respected, but the one that has done little wrong is MELODIC MOTION. (e/w) This Ralph Beckett-trained 3 year-old gets a handy 11lbs from the older horses and has also proven herself over this track when winning her back in May over 1m4f. She’s since franked that form by winning at Newmarket and that’s another plus as 3 of the last 14 winners of this race ran at HQ last time out. Godolphin’s Natural Scenery will have the services of Jim Crowley and looks sure to be involved, but having to give 11lbs away to the 3 year-olds won’t be easy. Therefore, WILD IRISH ROSE (e/w), another 3 year-old and from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard, rates the danger. She’s won her last two, including over this 1m6f trip last time out and despite having a bit to find at the weights and also taking nine races to break her duck, she’s certainly improved for the step up in distance so there could be more to come.

 

3.00 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

14/15 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
14/15 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
13/15 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
12/15 – Never raced at Goodwood before
12/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Won by a Feb or March foal
10/15 – Won their previous race
8/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 8 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 2
7 of the last 11 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 6
10 of the last 11 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
Mehmas (7/2) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard have a fantastic record in this race so despite looking like one of the outsiders their Etefaaq might be foolish to ignore. He was down the field in the Superlative Stakes last time out at Newmarket, but that was over 7f and this drop back to 6f will be more up his street. He raced prominently for much of the way that day and only got tired in the final furlong, but that race that was won by the well-regarded Gustav Klimt so to still finish 5 lengths off the winner was a good effort – Frankie Dettori rides. 10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 2-7 so this is another trend to note, while 3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 6 (Etefaaq). Horses from stall 2 also have a cracking record in recent years – being placed in 7 of the last 11 and winning 3 of those 11. So, with that in mind, the recent July Stakes winner – CARDSHARP (e/w) – is the call. This tough Mark Johnston-trained runner beat another of today’s runners – U S Navy Flag by 1 ¾ lengths that day and despite having a 3lbs penalty for that Group Two win still won with enough in-hand to think he can uphold the form. He’s a tough sort that will be having his seventh career run (3 wins) and is yet to finish out of the top 4. James Doyle has ridden him the last twice and also continues in the plate. Of the rest, the William Haggas-trained Headway will also be popular after a decent second in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but the form of that race has taken a few knocks since. So, best of the rest can be NEBO (e/w), who improved bundles last time out to be a head second to the classy Gustav Klimt. That was over 7f, but this drop to 6f looks a big plus and with reliable Jim Crowley (ridden him the last twice) in the saddle then he looks capable of more.

 

3.35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV

13/13 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
12/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
10/13 – Winning Favourites
10/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Had won over 1m2f previously
9/13 – Had won a Group One race previously
9/13 – Won between 2-4 times before
3/13 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/13 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
2/13 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
Minding (1/5 fav) won the race 12 months ago
8 of the last 11 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 7 of the last 11 renewals
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal. Last year’s runner-up, Queen’s Trust, is a good place to start as she sets a high standard on her 1 ¼ length second in the race 12 months ago to Minding. However, with just one win from her last 9 races then she’s not the easiest to catch right and despite often being thereabouts does seem to find a few too good most times. She’s also a 4 year-old now so will have to give weight away to the younger horses this year and that’s not going to be easy with some classy 3 year-olds in the contest. Shutter Speed was a decent fourth in the French Oaks last time and before that landed the Musidora Stakes at York. She gets 8lbs from Queen’s Trust and based on official ratings that would not put a lot between them. WUHEIDA (e/w) is another 3 year-old that enters the mix after a decent second in the Falmouth last time out. That was only her third career run and her first for 9 months so we can expect her to come on a lot for it. But, the O’Brien camp won the Falmouth with Roly Poly and with their 1,000 Guineas winner – WINTER – having beaten Roly Poly twice already this season then the Ballydoyle boys will have a clear form line on where they stand. Yes, their improving grey steps up to 1m2f for the first time here, but her pedigree (Galileo) and the manner of recent wins in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes suggests this extra yardage will be within range. Of the rest, the hat-trick seeking Nezwaah was an impressive Group One winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes last time out and commands plenty of respect too, while John Gosden’s classy So Mi Dar returns after 305 days off and if back to her best certainly has the form to make her presence felt. But Winter has done little wrong for me this season and there is every reason to think she’ll get this longer trip and possibly even be better over it, while the lightly-raced Wuheida should be a lot better for her recent run and don’t forget is also a past Group One winner when winning at Chantilly over in France last October.

 

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