Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY THREE (Thurs 29th July 2021)

Glorious Goodwood free tips and trends

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 27th July to Sat 31st July). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day THREE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Richmond Stakes, Lillie Langtry Stakes, plus the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares.

 

2021 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY THREE – Thursday 29th July 2021

 

1.50 – Unibet ’15 To Go’ Kincsem Handicap Cl2 1m2f ITV

16/18 – Had won between 1-3 times before
16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
16/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Rated between 91-99
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
12/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Had raced at Goodwood before
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of last 8 runnings)
5/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
3/18 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
Stall 14 has been placed in 5 of the last 15 runnings
11 of the last 15 winners came from stall 11 or lower
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 4-7 (inc)
2020 Winner: Junkanoo (50/1)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Gary Moore yard gave us a shock 50/1 winner of this race 12 months ago, so you can’t rule out their Pure Bubbles. That said, this 3 year-old, who gets in here with just 8-0 to carry is running here 7lbs out of the handicap and is also yet to win a race. We’ve not had a winner from stall one in the last 15 runnings, so a negative for the William Haggas runner – Taraashoq. This 3 year-old is one of three Shadwell runners in the field too, but their main jockey – Jim Crowley – prefers to side with the Roger Varian entry – Alfaadhel. But this 3 year-old was well beaten on softer ground at Ascot last time and that would be the worry. Patient Dreams, who will be fine on the ground, and Aerion Power head here off the back of good recent runs, but this is another race the powerful Mark Johnston team have done well in – winning 3 of the last 8 – and with 5 of the 12 runners it looks like they mean business again – Naamoos, Qaader, King Frankel, Mr Excellency and Forest Falcon. Of that lot, Forest Falcon is stepping up in trip for the first time so that’s the unknown about him but with only 8st to carry has a featherweight. Naamoos is the top-rated in the field (107) and will certainly find this company a lot easier than what he’s been tackling of late – Listed and G1 races. His last run in a handicap (3 runs back) was an easy 6 length romp at Sandown, but is now rated 9lbs higher – his class makes him hard to rule out. Mr Excellency has won his last two but is up another 2lbs as a result and this is a big step up in grade too, while he’s never raced on ground with any sort of ‘soft’ in the description. Qaader will be ridden by William Buick, who has a good record in the race too. He’s another Johnston runner that is stepping up in trip though, but on a plus is a proven course winner – albeit on much quicker ground. Of the Johnston runners though I’ll take a chance on KING FRANKEL (e/w) bouncing back to form. This run at HQ last time was too bad to be true, with the horse never travelling. Prior to that he’d been running well with five top four finishes, and he’s handled heavy/soft ground well in the past. The final pick is the already mentioned PATIENT DREAM, who gets in here with only 8st and jockey Ray Dawson takes off another 3lbs. He won at Windsor on soft ground last time out and is only up 3lbs for that win – all of which has been offset with Ray’s claim. He’s won 3 of his 7 career starts and could have more to come.

 

2.25 – Unibet Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
18/19 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/18 – Never raced at Goodwood before
15/18 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Placed last time out
13/18 – Won by a Feb or March foal
12/18 – Won their previous race
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 6 of last 10 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox (last 2)
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 2
9 of the last 14 horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
3 of the last 14 winners came from stall 6
12 of the last 14 winners came from stall 2-7 (inc)
2020 Winner: Supremacy (11/2)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With trainer Clive Cox having won the last two runnings their CATURRA is a horse to have an interest in here. Yes, he’s got a bit of ground to make up based on the ratings with some of these, but has won two of his last three now and is clearly going the right way. He’s handled a bit of cut before and the Cox team must feel he’s up to this sort of grade having run him in the Coventry Stakes (7th of 17) at Ascot in June. Asymmetric is a proven CD winner so that is a big plus and is also the top-rated in the field – he can go well for the Alan King team. Perfect Power is another to note having won his last two well, but they both came over 5f and is stepping up to 6f here. Gis A Sub and Gubbass have done nothing wrong in winning their recent races – Gubbass was a tidy winner of the valuable Weatherbys Super Sprint last time but needs to prove himself over this 6f trip too. So, the other of interest is the Hugo Palmer runner – EBRO RIVER. This juvenile has already shown a good level of form – winning 2 of his 5 starts – and wasn’t beaten far in the Coventry Stakes and July Stakes in his last two races. The good news about his chance though is that both his career wins have been on soft ground – therefore, the ground should be coming right for him. James Doyle rides.

 

3.00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

18/18 – Won between 1-3 times before
16/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/18 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/18 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
9/18 – Went onto run in the St Leger
7/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 14 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 14 runnings
2020 Winner: Mogul (9/2)

JUICESTORM VERDICT:  With 12 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 4-10, this is a good place to start here – Wordsworth, Sir Lucan, Aleas, Ottoman Emperor and Yibir all get the thumbs up on this stat. Of that bunch, the Aidan O’Brien yard have two – Wordsworth and Sir Lucan. The former who was last see running second in the French Derby so this drop into a G3 will help. He’s a consistent sort but has only actually won the once from his 6 starts – placed in them all. He looks sure to be involved, but that win record would be a slight worry. SIR LUCAN actually beat Wordsworth last time out too – at Navan in a Listed race in May. It’s interesting that connections have kept him fresh since, but with that win coming over 1m5f we know this Camelot colt has stamina and that will help in likely soft conditions. Youth Spirit and Third Realm are the only two distance winners in the field, which is a plus. Of that pair Youth Spirit is the top-rated in the field and will find this easier after running 8th in the Derby last time. He won the Chester Vase well before that Epsom run and won’t mind the ground – it would be no shock to see him bounce back. Ottoman Empire will draw the eye after winning his last three, but he’s never raced on ground this soft and is also up in grade and up in trip – therefore, has a few unknowns to get over. Aleas has handled deep ground well in the past and was a nice winner at Hamilton last time out – he’s won 4 of this last 5, but the negative would be that only defeat came here at Goodwood. The other pick is, YIBIR, who bounced back to winning form at Newmarket last time out. That came after being gelded and prior to that had run the classy Lone Eagle to 4 lengths here at Goodwood – he had Aleas well beaten that day too. His last win came over 1m5f, so we know this 1m4f is okay and has acted well in softer ground in the past too.

 

3.35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV

16/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
16/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
13/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won a Group One race previously
12/17 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/17 – Winning Favourites
11/17 – Had won over 1m2f previously
4/17 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
3/17 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
12 of the last 15 winners were drawn 7 or lower
Stalls 1, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 15 renewals
2020 Winner: Fancy Blue (11/4)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the six runners for this G1, but the safest option looks to be to stick with the 117-rated AUDARYA, who was last seen running the classy Love to ¾ of a length at Ascot in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. This 5 year-old has now won just over £1m in total prize money and on the turf has only been out of the top three twice from 11 runs. She also handles soft ground well and is a proven course winner so ticks many boxes. Her main challengers look to be Joan Of Arc and Lady Bowthorpe. The former comes from the Aidan O’Brien yard and after a top G1 win in France last time out is certainly going the right way. Before that she was a close second in the Irish 1000 Guineas to her stablemate Empress Josephine, who also lines up here for O’Brien. Lady Bowthorpe is another classy filly and was a close fourth last time in the Falmouth Stakes – for her though, the step up in trip is an unknown and she’s yet to win with any degree of ‘soft’ in the ground description. The runners are made up with Zeyaadah and Technique, who were separated by just a head last time out in a G3 at Newcastle – with ZEYAADAH (e/w) coming out on top. This Roger Varian runner will be fine on the ground and being a 3 year-old will get a handy 9lbs off Lady Bowthorpe and Audarya in the race.

 

4.10 – Goodwood Racecourse Patrons Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 7f ITV

11/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won 0-1 times before
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Foaled between Feb-April
10/11 – Winners from stalls 7 or lower
9/11 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Rated between 78-88
7/11 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ran at Epsom last time out
4/11 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/11 – Had run at Goodwood before
3/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2020 Winner: Mark Of The Man (12/1)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: These 2 year-olds can improve very quickly at this stage of their careers so the betting market will be a good guide. It’s a race the Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon yards have done well in over the years so their runners – Johnston, Highland Premiere, Whitefeathersfall – Hannon: Ardbraccan and South Audley are all worthy contenders. Of those four, HIGHLAND PREMIERE was a very easy winner at Catterick on soft ground last time and is only up 5lbs for that. More needed in this harder grade, but clearly handles the ground and that was also his first try stepped up to 7f. Of the Hannon pair a chance is taken on SOUTH AUDLEY (e/w), who was impressive in winning over 6f at Nottingham last time out. The step up in trip looks worth a crack with Pat Dobbs keeping the ride. Of the rest, Robasta, Favourite Child and the unbeaten Michael Bell runner – Adjuvant – with Ryan Moore riding are others to consider. The Crisford yard are also boasting a 2-from-4 strike-rate with their juveniles at the track (at the time of writing), so their Aswan is another to note. But the final pick is the William Buick-ridden MAYFAIR STROLL (e/w). This Charles Hills runner won easily at Lingfield last time out when upped to this trip and despite a 6lb penalty still gets in here with only 8-6 to carry. William Buick booked to ride is a plus, especially as he’s got a cracking 36% strike-rate when riding 2 year-olds at the track.

 

 

 

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