Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR (Fri 4th Aug 2017)

Goodwood racing tips and trends

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 1st to Sat 5th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FOUR with four LIVE ITV races, including the Glorious Stakes, Betfred Mile, plus the Group Two King George Stakes.

 

 

DAY FOUR – Friday 4th August 2017

 

1.50 – Betfred Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Winners by 1 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/15 – Had won at Listed or better class before
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before (4 won)
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
7/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Were won by either a head or neck
4/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
7 of the last 11 winners came from stall 5 or higher
Horses from stall 1 placed in 7 of the last 8 runnings (2 wins)
Kings Fete (5/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 5/1

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With just seven runners now in the opener on day four then punters have been given a bit more of a chance and with the overnight favourite – Frontiersman – now a non-runner then the race has been a tiny bit easier again. Second Step and Poet’s Word are and are both proven course winners at the track and being rated 110 and 113 – the two highest in the field – look big players. Poet’s Word will also have Ryan Moore in the saddle and there could be more to come after an improved close second at Chester last time. That was back in May so he’s been kept fresh for this, but does need to prove himself over this trip with all runs to date coming over shorter. SECOND STEP (e/w) was giving another of today’s runners – Lord Yeats – 3lbs last time when that horse beat him by just a neck at Newmarket. With the pair racing on level weights now we can expect the Roger Charlton horse to reverse that form, especially at a track he’s finished third and first at from his only two starts – he rates the safest call, being he’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field and has also handled a bit of cut in the past. Finally, Crimean Tatar would enter the mix on old form and his last run over 1m6f can be ignored as he clearly didn’t stay. The first-time blinkers are interesting and with just four career runs there could be more to come. While Scarlet Dragon is another that has run better than his recent form figures suggest and won’t mind the ground.

 

2.25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

14/15 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
13/15 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
11/15 – Had not won a Group 3 or better before
11/15 – Had won at least twice during their career
11/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Ran at either Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (3) last time out
5/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Thikriyaat (9/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
6 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 1-3 (inc)
The last 10 winners came from stalls 1-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

Note: 2012 was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Bless Him and Make Time are interesting entries that are running for in-form stables (David Simcock and David Menuisier), plus were both decent winners last time out. They need to improve a bit now into a Group Three but they have potential to do so and should not be discounted. Forest Ranger, Soloman’s Bay, Ronald R, Zainhom and Escobar are all closely rated so there should not be much between them, but on official marks the French raider – Trais Fluors – and the Andrew Balding-trained BEAT THE BANK look the ones to beat. Trais Fluors heads over from the Andre Fabre yard and having been a recent second in the Group One Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly then sets a high standard. Before that he’d won four times and his powerful French stable are certainly not sending him over just for a day out. He does, however, have to give 4lbs away to Beat The Bank and with just 3lbs between the pair on the ratings this penalty means there is now nothing much between them – just a pound in favour of Beat The Bank. Yes, the selection was last seen winning a Listed race at HQ, but he did it very well (3 lengths) and also had Forest Ranger in-behind that day. That was his first try over a mile but ran on very strongly at the finish to suggest there is more to come. With only four career runs and having won three of those then he’s done’ little wrong, with his only blot coming in the Jersey Stakes when 10th of 20.

 

3.00 – Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/15 – Had raced 3 or more times that season
12/15 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
10/15 – Carried 8-13 or less
10/15 – Never raced at Goodwood before
9/15 –Priced 7/1 or shorter
9/15 – Aged  4 or 5 years-old
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Belgian Bill won the race in 2015
Red Avenger won the race in 2014
10 of the last 12 winners were drawn 9 or lower
10 of the last 12 runnings saw the first two both drawn in 11 or lower
Frankin D (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A very competitive renewal of this race. With 14 of the last 15 winners aged 6 or younger then of the 20 runners we can rule out four – Here Comes When, Belgium Bill, (a former winner of this race), Boomshackerlacker and One Word More. Winning form over at least a mile is another plus, but that applies to most of these, but with 14 of the last 15 winners having raced 3 or more times that season then this knocks out several more – including the well-fancied Blair House, Tony Curtis and Mustashry. The draw has played a role too with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 9 or lower then this helps us further. Taking the draw trend into account, and also the other key trends already mentioned, then there are six that stand out – GM HOPKINS (1), BIRCHWOOD (2), MASTER OF THE WORLD (3), ZHUI FENG (4), HORS DE COMBAT (5) and WITHERNSEA (7). All are respected and at the prices there may well be a chance to split stakes and have an interest in them all, but for the purpose of sticking my neck out GM HOPKINS (E/W) and MASTER OF THE WORLD (E/W) look the most interesting. The first-named is a regular in these big-field handicaps and has been slowly coming to the boil in recent races. He was a fair 7th of 29 in the Royal Hunt Cup behind Zhui Feng, and has since bettered that with a neck second at Sandown. He gets in here off the same mark as last time and having won off an 8lb higher rating last season is starting to look well-handicapped. Any cut in the ground will be fine and he’ll also have the in-form Andrea Atzeni doing the steering. Master Of The World is another with a top jockey booked, as Ryan Moore gets the leg-up. He also ran well in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot (8th) and like GM Hopkins has since improved on that run with a fine second at HQ. Yes, he’s not the easiest to win with (21 runs without a win), but is never far away in his races and is another that acts on most ground. Draw 3 looks fine we can expect another solid effort from this consistent 6 year-old.

 

3.35 – Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV

15/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
12/15 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/15 – Had won 4 or more times in their careers
11/15 – Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out
9/15 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
6/15 – Had only won at Listed Class before
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Take Cover (8/1) won the race in 2014 & 2016
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Horses from stall 4 and 8 have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some old faces line-up here in what looks another decent re-run of this Group Two. Based on the official ratings we can expect Profitable to be popular and he heads here having run two fine seconds at Deauville, and also last time in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s a proven Group One winner, so this drop in class makes him a big player, but those against him might cling to the fact he’s yet to race here at Goodwood and that he’s also currently five runs without a win – which for a sprinter of his rating is not that common. It may well be significant – or not – but 4 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or 8, so with that in mind Washington DC (4) and Kachy (8) have that trend on their side. But the Charles-Hills-trained Battaash looks the horse with the most improvement and he was a smooth winner of a decent Group Three last month at Sandown. That came on very quick ground though so any cut (or rain) might be a negative, seeing that he’s been beaten both times when the word ‘soft’ has been in the going description. That said, he’s a 3 year-old of massive potential and getting weight from the older horses certainly makes him the one to beat. The filly Marsha has done little wrong this season and has not finished out of the top three in her last five starts. He gets weight from the older horses and is respected, but if the ground came up soft that would also be an unknown for her as she’s yet to race on anything worse than good. She was also beaten into fifth in this race 12 months ago – albeit only ¾ of a length. The horse that won last year – TAKE COVER (E/W) – does look interesting again though. Yes, he’s now a 10 year-old, but he’s still mixing it with the best of them after running fifth in the King’s Stand and also winning last time out at York in a Listed race. This is harder, and he’s a bit to find on these terms with a few of them, but his career form at Goodwood reads an impressive 2-1-2-1 so based on that is a good chance this front-running trail blazer will be in the thick of things again.

 

 

 

 

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