Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR (Fri 30th July 2021)

Goodwood racing tips and trends

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 27th to Sat 31st July). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FOUR with four LIVE ITV races, including the Unibet Golden  Mile, plus the Group Two King George Stakes – a race the speedy Battaash has won for the last four seasons!

 

2021 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY FOUR – Friday 30th July 2021

 

1.50 – Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap Cl2 2m5f ITV

18/19 – Aged 7 or younger
15/19 – Had 3+ runs already that season
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat
12/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat
11/19 – Had run at Goodwood before
10/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Carried 9-0 or more
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/19 – Trained by Ian Williams
2020 Winner: Just Hubert (25/1)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The stayers get us going on day four with this 2m5f flat race. Therefore, each year it’s a prize the NH yards also like to target, but you feel this season we’ve more actual flat yards with runners entered. 12 months ago we saw the William Muir runner – Just Hubert – win the race. He’s rated a pound lower this year too and is also the only proven CD winner in the field so has to command respect despite not winning a race since (7 runs). Platform Nineteen returned to the track last time from a long time off to travel well and win nicely up at Beverley and a 6lb penalty might not be enough to stop him. The only niggle would be the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ as that last run came off a huge 648-day break. The consistent The Grand Visir is sure to run his race as normal and was fourth in the race 12 months ago off this same mark. Others that ran in the race last year are Coeur De Lion (9th), Seinesational (12th) and ROCHESTER HOUSE (e/w), who was a neck runner-up. This Mark Johnston 5 year-old is a pound lower this year and even though he’s been a bit out of form this season, the softer ground will be to his liking. It’s also interesting that the first-time blinkers are on today. We’ve also got last year’s third back for more – SMART CHAMPION (e/w) – and with this David Simcock runner rated 6lbs lower, plus connections have also booked the useful Saffie Osborne to ride and take off another 6lbs, then he’s 12lbs better off! He was only beaten just under a length, but connections will be hoping ideally that the ground dries out a bit more – if it does, that will increase his chance. Of the rest, the likes of Elysian Flame, Green Book, Calling The Wind and Withhold are others all with claims, while if able to settle better in his races Buriram would have a say, but pulling again over this longer trip would be the concern for this Ralph Beckett runner.

 

2.25 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m ITV

18/19 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
16/19 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/19 – Had not won a Group 3 or better before
13/19 – Had won at least twice during their career
13/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (5) last time out
7/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-3 (inc)
2020 Winner: Tilsit (10/1)

Note: 2012 was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: El Drama and Tactical both are useful sorts in and around this grade, while we can’t ignore the Aidan O’Brien runner – Khartoum, who was a close second in a Listed race at the Curragh last time out. But it’s hard to ignore the progress the unbeaten William Haggas runner – BAAEED – has made so far in his career. This 3 year-old has won all three starts and the last of those wins was a very impressive 4l win in the Listed Henry Cecil Stakes at HQ earlier this month. Yes, this is a step up in grade again, but he’s an exciting prospect that has also handled a bit of give underfoot – he’s taken to remain unbeaten and move onto better things. Of the others, the only course winner in the field – PEROTTO (e/w) – can go well too. This Marcus Tregoning runner loves it here at Goodwood with form figures that read 1-2-1 and despite having a bit to find at the weights – rated 13lbs inferior to Baaeed – his love of the course is a big plus and he can go well.

 

3.00 – Unibet Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/19 – Had raced 3 or more times that season
16/19 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
12/19 – Never raced at Goodwood before
12/19 –Priced 7/1 or shorter
12/19 – Carried 8-13 or less
11/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Won their last race
3/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
14 of the last 16 winners were drawn 9 or lower
13 of the last 16 runnings saw the first two both drawn in 11 or lower
2020 Winner: Prompting (3/1 fav)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 18 of the last 19 winners aged 6 or younger, the likes of Escobar, Greenside and Trais Fluors would have this stat to overcome. 14 of the last 16 winners were also drawn in stalls 9 or lower – Shelir, Johan, Path Of Thunder, Hortzadar, Maydanny, Orbaan, Qaader Rhoscolyn and Escobar tick the box here. While with both the first two in 13 of the last 16 runnings drawn 11 or lower, you might want to take this draw trend a bit further. If we also take the weight trends into account that 12 of the last 19 winners had 8-13 or less, then the only qualifier is the Mark Johnston runner – QAADER (e/w) – who is also a proven CD winner here. He’s run soe solid races this season and if the ground dries out (this would help), then is a horse to have on your radar – if the ground gets really soft again, then he’d have a bit to prove. Hortzadar and Variyann are the only other two CD winners in the field. Maydanny and Magical Morning were separated by just ¾ of a length last time at Sandown and both look big players again here. Maydanny is a proven course winner and might have the better draw in 5 to be able to overturn that running. But the other main pick is the Godolphin runner – PATH OF THUNDER (e/w). This 4 year-old has a top draw in 3 and was very impressive last time when winning by 3 lengths at Newmarket. He’s up just 3lbs for that and should be just about okay on the ground, providing it doesn’t get heavy. Acquitted is another that should run it’s race and not be far away but does find it hard to win these days. Johan will be popular with Ryan Moore riding and won well at Salisbury last month, but is up 4lbs for that. The final pick, therefore, is RHOSCOLYN (e/w), who was a nice winner on soft ground here back in May and has improved with every run since. He’ll also have the services of Oisin Murphy riding and draw 8 looks ideal.  

 

3.35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV 

19/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18/19 – Had won over 5f before
15/19 – Didn’t win last time out
15/19 – Had won 4 or more times in their careers
14/19 – Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out
13/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/19 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/19 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Had only won at Listed Class before
5/19 – Trained by the Hills yard
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas
2/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Battaash won the race in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Horses from stall 4 and 8 have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
2020 Winner: Battaash (2/7 fav)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The popular BATTAASH will be going for a record-breaking fifth win in this race and even though he’s not ‘bomb-proof’ these days, he’s still the clear one to beat. Yes, he needs to bounce back from losing in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, but he returns to his beloved Goodwood – a track he’s yet to lost at (4 runs)! He’d probably not want the ground to get much softer, but has won on ‘good-to-soft’ and ‘soft’ in the past so the ground will hopefully not be an issue. This does look a slightly harder renewal too, so you feel the four-time champ will need to be on his a-game, with last year’s runner-up Glass Slippers certainly a big danger again. She won’t mind any more rain and is a 3-time Group One winner. The concern would be that she’s back from a break and looking back at his form he’s always needed a run or two before hitting top-form – he’s never won first time out. Dragon Symbol is sure to be in the mix too. He’s yet to finish out of the first two from his 4 starts on the turf and we know soft ground is fine and that he will stay further than this 5f trip if it turns into a slog – he also gets a handy 4lbs off Battaash. Art Power is another alternative to the hot favourite, but is now 6 races without a win despite running well in defeat in most of those. Liberty Beach and Arecibo have place claims, but the other pick is the French raider – SUESA (e/w). She flopped in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time out at Ascot, but that was over 6f and the drop back to 5f will help. Softer ground is perfect, if that’s how the ground stays, and last time out was only her first defeat from 5 runs. She did run a bit free the last day, but the return to 5f will help with that and William Buick is a plus in the saddle. She’s also gets a big 7lbs off Battaash, being a 3 year-old filly.

 

4.10 – L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

11/11 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Rated between 110-114
9/11 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/11 – Had run at the track before
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Drawn between 3-8 (inc)
7/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2020 Winner: Pablo Escobar (9/2)
Desert Encounter (15/2) won this race in 2019 and was second in 2020

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s winner – PABLO ESCOBARR (e/w) – is 2-from-2 here at the track so is hard to keep out of calculations despite having not won a race since taking this 12 months ago. William Buick catches the eye in the saddle and connections reach for the first-time blinkers too. Mogul, for the Aidan O’Brien yard, is the top-rated in the field and dropping from Group One company into Group Three makes him dangerous. That said, he ran poorly at Epsom last time out and would probably like the ground to dry out a bit more. He’s a CD winner though here at Goodwood, when taking the Gordon Stakes here in 2020 and Ryan Moore is back in the saddle. Alounak won well at Haydock last time and had Pablo Escobarr back in 5th that day too – he won’t mind the ground, but this is a step up from a handicap into a G3. If the 8 year-old, Euchen Glen wins, the roar will probably be one of the loudest of the week. This old timer has found a new lease of life in the last few seasons and punters have really taken to his story. He won again last time at Sandown and will love it if there is more rain. His only run here was a fair 5th in the 2020 Goodwood Cup. Without A Fight, Outbox and Eagles By Day have squeaks too, but the other one I like is PASSION AND GLORY. This Godolphin 5 year-old has won his last two in great fashion, including at Ascot last time by 6 lengths. He needs to step up from handicap company to this Group level – however, has now won his last three on the turf in this country and looks to be on the up still. The longer trip is a tiny worry, but be wasn’t stopping over 1m2f last time to suggest it’s worth another crack. Oisin Murphy rides.

 

 

 

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