Glorious Goodwood Trends & Tips: DAY FIVE (Sat 5th Aug 2017)

Glorious Goodwood racing tips and trends

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 1st to Sat 5th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FIVE with four LIVE ITV races, including the Gordon Stakes and the super-competitive Stewards’ Cup.

 

 

DAY FIVE – Saturday 5th August 2017

 

 

1.50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

13/13 – Didn’t win their last race
12/13 – Raced at Goodwood previously
12/13 – Had won over 6f previously
11/13 – Won at least 3 times during their career
10/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
9/13 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
9/13 – Favourites unplaced
8/13 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
7/13 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
6/13 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
3/13 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/13 – Favourites (none in the last 11 years)
0/13 – 3 year-old winners
Hoof It (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The last 11 winners carried 9-0 or more
8 of the last 11 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Horse from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 14/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Back with the tough opening races, as we move into the final day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival. 21 runners are declared to run so it’s going to be a minefield for punters, but hopefully with plenty of key trends we can narrow down the runners to find those with the best past winning profiles. With ALL of the last 13 winners having not won their last race then, although it will be easy for punters to latch onto horses with a ‘1’ next to their name, we are going to rule these out. We’ve four horses that fit the bill here – The Wagon Wheel, Lightning Charlie, Royal Brave and Manshood – all of which won last time out and so we are ruling out – in fact, 9 of the last 13 winners (69%) took this having finished fourth or worse last time out. Next-up is that we’ve not seen a single 3 year-old win this race in the last 13 years so that helps knock three more out. The last 11 winners carried 9-0 or more to victory so if this is to carry on then we can draw a line through five more towards the bottom of the card. 10 of the last 13 runners had run 4 or more times that season so this is a negative for the likes of Son Of Africa and Secondo. With Ryan Moore booked to ride the Richard Fahey-trained Gin In The Inn then this 4 year-old is sure to be popular too, especially after a decent second last time out at Pontefract. But I’d prefer to look for horses that were placed fourth or worse last time out, which suggests that despite not actually coming here in-form, might be heading into the race well-handicapped! With that in mind, and based on the key trends already mentioned there are five horses that catch the eye – GEORGE BOWEN, STELLARTA, LUCKY BEGGAR, GORING & PETTOCHSIDE. All five command respect and in a race of this nature there is no harm firing a few bullets at it, but for the purpose of homing in on one in particular then PETTOCHSIDE (E/W) could be the answer. This John Bridger-trained 8 year-old was a fair 6th here earlier in the week, but that was over 5f and was actually only beaten 2 ¼ lengths behind El Astronaute. The step up to 6f and the softer ground will suit better as he was staying on well that day plus he simply loves the track – his recent runs here read an impressive 1-1-2-1-3-2-3-2-6.

 

2.25 – The Qatar Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

13/14 – Had won at least twice before
12/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Rated between 90-100
9/14 – Carried 9-7 or more
8/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/14 – Placed favourites
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
Horses from stalls 12, 13 & 14 have good e/w records in recent years
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
Elidor (16/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another of the longer distance races to take in here, so it goes without saying stamina is the order of the day. Of the 14 runners we’ve actually only five proven winners over this 1m6f trip, but of those five we do have three recent course and distance winners in Getback In Paris, Arch Villain and Platitude. The Mark Johnston yard are having a decent meeting and this is another race they’ve done well in over the years – winning it three times in the last 14 runnings. Their entries this year are Soldier In Action and Jaameh. The first-named is a past course winner here, but would have a few questions to answer surrounding the trip, while Jaameh has no issues on that front – being that he’s one of the already mentioned five past distance winners in the field – he’s respected. Ryan Moore has ridden two winners in the race since 2008 and teams up with the Queen here to ride the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Mainstream. A consistent sort, but is yet to race beyond 1m4f, while despite never being far away in his races is now 9 outings without a win – oh, and he’s also in stall 1 and we’ve not seen a winner from that berth in the last 11 years! There is an interesting sub-plot here too as the Queen will actually be going head-to-head with her son, as the Prince Of Wales owns Carntop. 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old, while 11 of the last 14 had raced in the last 4 weeks. Off just 8-10 the past course and distance winner – Getback In Paris – would be a big winner for former top jockey and now trainer – Richard Hughes – but this is another step up in class for this 4 year-old. But the one that catches the eye is another of the Stoute runners – PLATITUDE (E/W). This 4 year-old will have the services of the in-form Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and being another of the proven course and distance winners in the race then he’s got a lot going for him. He’s only had two runs this season so will be fresher than most and handles most ground types. Two runs in July should have him spot-on for this and is now only 2lbs higher than when winning over this course and distance last August – with a certainly Andrea Atzeni also doing the steering that day.

 

3.00 – Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

14/14 – Won between 1-3 times before
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Winning distance – neck or shorter
7/14 – Went onto run in the St Leger
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/14 – Went onto win the St Leger
The last 10 winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc)
The horse from stall 7 has won 4 of the last 10 runnings
Horses from stalls 4,7 & 10 have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
Ulysses (9/2) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This race is often a good guide for the St Leger that is run next month – with two winners of this contest in the last 15 years going onto glory in the final English Classic at Doncaster. Only five runners here though, which is slightly disappointing, but Crystal Ocean and Khalidi both figure well in the ante-post betting for the St Leger so will be advertising their claims ahead of that race. Crystal Ocean will be very popular with Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute teaming up. This 3 year-old has been a close third in his last two races behind the useful Permian. He’s got form with cut and with only four career outings we can expect a lot more to come. However, the John Gosden-trained KHALIDI just edges it for me. He’s officially rated 2lbs higher than Crystal Ocean and finished one place ahead of that horse when they were second and third in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The ground should be fine, but with two course wins to his name too then that’s a further plus as this track can often be tricky to handle. His two victories here have been emphatic ones too – winning by 2 ½ and 5 lengths, while Frankie Dettori is the final icing on the cake. Of the rest, the improving Mount Moriah deserves to take his chance after nice wins at Newbury and Ascot, but this is a step up from handicap to Group level. Jake’s Hill and Across Dubai make up the field.

 

3.35 – Qatar Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
14/14 – Had won over 6f before
13/14 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
13/14 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
10/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/14 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/14 – Raced at Goodwood before
5/14 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – William Haggas
2/14 – Winning 3 year-olds
Dancing Star (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
8 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure draw
Stall 18 has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 14 winners aged 6 or younger and having also won before over 6f then this is a good place to start ahead of this ultra-competitive handicap. With these two monster trends applied to the race then the 28 runners now become 19, with nine knocked out. 13 of the last 14 winners had also raced at least 3 times that season, while 10 of the last 14 (71%) were aged 4 or 5 years-old. The trainers with the best recent records are the William Haggas and Roger Charlton camps – between them they’ve won the race 4 times in the last 14 years. Charlton runs Projection, who is sure to be popular after a fine third last time out in the Wokingham. But with just two runs this season and 9-6 to carry this 4 year-old does have a few key trends against him, while, in a race of this nature, doesn’t look the best value. William Haggas has the 4 year-old Raucous entered and is another that punters are bound to latch onto after a decent fourth last time out at Newbury in a Group Three. This drop back into handicap company is an obvious plus, as is Jim Crowley in the saddle and is certainly one for the shortlist. Danzeno is the highest-rated in the field and comes here in cracking order after winning a competitive handicap at Ascot. He was also a close fifth in the Wokingham, but does have to shoulder a 6lb penalty for that recent win which makes life a lot harder. However, the last two winners of this race have been 3 year-olds and it could be more of the same this year. The 101-rated SIR DANCEALOT (E/W) gets in here with only 8-12 to carry so is receiving a massive 13lbs off the top-weight Danzeno and also has Ryan Moore booked to ride. This 3 year-old was a fine second last time out at Newmarket over 7f so we know he stays further and as long as the ground dries out then he looks to have a great chance on these terms. Brian The Snail is the only other 3 year-old in the race and would be very interesting on old form, but has rather lost his way since. Maybe the first-time blinkers will spark him back into life – if they do he could be dangerous. Of the rest, the David O’Meara-trained AL QAHWA (E/W) ticks a lot of the main trends and was a fast-finishing second at York last time out. He gets in here off the same mark and won’t mind it if the ground remains on the soft side, while of those at bigger prices the Paul Cole-trained 5 year-old UPSTAGING (E/W) is another that seems to have a lot of key trends on his side. He was a good winner at Windsor last time out and despite being 6lbs higher her most of that is offset with David Egan’s 5lb claim.

 

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