Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY ONE (Tues 28th July 2020)

Glorious Goodwood Free Tips

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the end of July with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 28th July to Sat 1st Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We get going on Day One with four LIVE ITV races, including the Vintage Stakes and Lennox Stakes, plus the recently upgraded Group One Goodwood Cup.

2020 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY ONE – Tuesday 28th July 20120

1.45 – Unibet You’re On Handicap Cl2 1m1f192y ITV

17/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/18 – Had won at least 3 times already during their career
15/18 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
15/18 – Carried 8-11 or more
12/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
11/18 – Unplaced last time out
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2019 Winner: Fayez (25/1)
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
9 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 18 runners heading to post we’ve a tricky handicap to get things going with the TV races. However, with 10 of the last 14 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher then this stat could rule out 8 entries – Maydanny, Walkinthesand, Restorer, Bell Rock, Sucellus, You’re Hired, Lawn Ranger and Nicholas T. 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old too, so this might be seen as a negative for Restorer, Nicholas T and You’re Hired, who are all older. Trainer Mark Johnston has a fine record in the race too so his runners Maydanny and Sky Defender have to be respected. His Maydanny looks his better fancied but a low draw might not be ideal, so SKY DEFENDER (e/w) might be worth chancing at a bigger price. This 4 year-old flopped last time out at York but if you can forgive that last effort, prior to that was a top winner at Epsom over this trip. Cape Cavalli was a nice winner last time out at York and is a proven CD winner too. He’s up 8lbs for that last win, but jockey Cieren Fallon takes 3lbs of that off – from draw 17 he looks a big player. Bell Rock, Red October, Tinandali and YURI GAGARIN are others that are sure to be popular – especially the last-named who hails from the powerful John Gosden yard that boast a decent 37% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. While the consistent Alternative Fact can also go well. But the other pick is DEREVO, from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and after a solid third last time out at Doncaster should be a lot fitter this time. He’s 3 lengths to find with Fifth Position, but is 5lbs better off at the weights and with that last run coming off a 247-day break can be expected to have improved for it.

 

2.15 – Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Had 2 or 3 previous career runs
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won by a March or later-born foal
9/18 – Ran at either Newmarket or Ascot last time out
8/18 – Had won 2 previous races
4/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 6)
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 9
2019 Winner: Pinatubo (6/4)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Devious Company ran well to be second in the G2 Superlative Stakes at HQ and should go well again, while the Coventry Stakes fourth – Dark Lion – has since got off the mark at Wolverhampton over this trip and enters the mix too. Youth Spirit was behind Devious Company on debut but left that form behind to win well in a decent maiden at Newmarket last time and holds a Derby entry for next year. Frankie riding King Zain for Mark Johnston has to be respected but this one needs to bounce back from an average run in the Superlative Stakes last time (6th). But the one that stands out is BATTLEGROUND, for the Aidan O’Brien yard. This one was a nice winner of the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out over this trip and clearly improved for the step up in trip He’s got some fancy entries ahead too and the yard have won 2 of the last 6 runnings of this race. Of those at a bigger price the in-form Richard Hannon team have a good record in this race so their Fountain Cross might be one to outrun his odds, with the step back up to 7f looking a good move.

 

2.45 – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

18/18 – Had won at least 2 times before
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs already that season
15/18 – Had won over 7f before
15/18 – Previous Group Race winners
14/18 – Had previously won a Group 2 or 3
12/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
11/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 5
Sir Dancealot has won the last two runnings
2019 Winner: Sir Dancealot (6/1)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 6 year-old SIR DANCEALOT (e/w) has won the last two runnings of this race and so he’s got to be one to have on the shortlist. Yes, been a bit below-par this season but always seems to save his best for this meeting and would have clearly been trained with this race in mind again. Top French jockey Gerald Mosse, who knows the horse well, comes over for the ride and another top run looks on the cards. Space Blues will be the likely favourite after winning his last two but it’s worth pointing out 10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7 or lower and he’s been handed the 10 berth. Others that are drawn in stall 8 or higher are D’bai, Glorious Journey, Bless Him, History Writer and Pierre Lapin. Glorious Journey has to be respected too, but the other one that looks interesting is DUKE OF HAZZARD, who was a G3 winner at this meeting last year and is actually 3-from-3 at the track. A recent third in the Summer Mile would have brought him on but the drop back to 7f is a big plus. Of the rest, the draw is not ideal but the David Menuisier runner – HISTORY WRITER (e/w) could outrun his odds. The main reason being the yard are in top form – 4 from 9 at the time of writing. Yes, he’s a bit to find on the ratings, but the drop back to 7f looks interesting and that recent run at Newbury would have improved him.

 

3.15 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 2m ITV

16/18 – Placed last time out
14/18 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
14/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
13/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Had won over at least 2m before
11/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
11/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Had run at Goodwood before
10/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/18 – Trained by Michael Bell
All of the last 16 winners had run in the last 45 days
Stradivarius won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019
Trainer John Gosden has trained the last three winners
7 of the last 23 runnings were won by a previous winner of the race
12 of the last 13 winners came from stall 10 or lower
2019 Winner: Stadivarius (4/5 fav)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This race should be simple – it will be a shock if it’s not STRADIVARIUS first and the rest playing for places! Rated 125 and 10lbs clear of the next in the race – Santiago and Nayef Road – then it should be win number four in this race for this popular John Gosden stayer. He bolted-up in the Ascot Gold Cup last month and at the age of 6 years-old is still a fairly young horse for this division. Of the others, I do like the way Santiago won at Ascot and then landed the Irish Derby last time. He’s a useful middle-distance/stayer from the Aidan O’Brien yard and will give the favourite something to think about. He also gets a handy 13lbs from Stradivarius, but I’d rather stick with the proven horse over this trip as the O’Brien runner – despite being impressive over 1m6f at Ascot – is trying this distance for the first time. Nayef Road can be expected to run his race too, but looks likely to have to settle for a place, while the same can be said for Eagles By Day and Spanish Mission.

 

3.45 – Qatar Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

Five previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/5 – Rated between 88-98
5/5 – Unplaced last time out
5/5 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
4/5 – Returned 14/1 or bigger in the betting
4/5 – Drawn in stalls 9 or lower
4/5 – Won between 3-6 times
4/5 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/5 – Ran at Goodwood before
3/5 – Won over 5f in the past
2/5 – Ridden by PJ McDonald
2/5 – Came from stall 6
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
0-5 – Winning favourites

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A good race for horses aged 4 or 5 in recent years, so this is a plus for WELL DONE FOX, RECON MISSION, COUNT D’ORSAY, CELSIUS and BENNY AND THE JETS – of that bunch only Celsius is also the only proven CD winner in the field. Oldtimer, Caspian Prince is still showing a liking for the game at the age of 11 and is the top-rated in the field – expect to see him blast out and play ‘catch me if you can’. A Momentofmadness was only 9th in the race 12 months ago, but is rated 5lbs lower this time, but the two I like are RECON MISSION (e/w) and COUNT D’ORSAY (e/w). They’ve both got good draws in 5 and 6, while they’ve also got decent pilots in Tom Marquand and James Doyle riding. Recon Mission looks to be running into form after a fine third at Newbury last time out too and after showing plenty of pace that day the drop back to 5f (from 6f) is a plus. Count D’orsay is also dropping to a fair mark and is now only 2lbs higher than his last win. James Doyle has ridden the horse in the past too and should the track get any more rain, this would also be a plus having gone well with cut in the past.

 

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