Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 9th March 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

It’s the calm before the storm this coming Saturday with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon. However, still plenty to get stuck into with the ITV cameras to take in four races at Sandown Park that include the competitive Imperial Cup – a race the sponsors put up an additional bonus of £100k should the winner go onto land any race the 2019 Cheltenham Festival – the last horse to do the double was Gaspara in 2007.

We’ve also two LIVE ITV races on the AW to take in from Wolverhampton, including the Lincoln Handicap Trial – yes, all the racing talk might be about Cheltenham at the moment, but the start of the flat turf season is also not far away!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM we’ve all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Matchbook VIP “National Hunt” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV

16/16 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Carried 10-11 or more
13/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Rated 129 or less
13/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish bred
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Had won over this trip before
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls yards both have decent records in this race, so anything they run should be noted. Trixster ran well last time too and is respected if making the final line-up, with the Tim Vaughan yard in good form this week. However, it might be worth chancing ONE FOR ROSIE and SKANDIBUG. Both head here in good order, with One For Rosie having won three of his last four for the Alan King yard, while Skandiburg wasn’t disgraced in running the already mentioned Trixster close last time at Kelso. That form has been franked since, but the drop in trip should favour this Olly Murphy runner so is taken to be in the shake-up once again. Finally, in a very open and competitive race it could pay to note that the Nicky Henderson yard boast an impressive 30% record with their hurdlers at the track – they run Before Midnight and Mill Green, while another yard that’s done well here with their hurdlers is the Fergal O’Brien camp – they have Champagne Well entered.

 

2.25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/16 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/16 – Rated 124 or higher
12/16 – Aged 6 or younger
11/16 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara – Fred Winter)
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – French bred
5/16 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/16 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 3)
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson-trained Call Me Lord heads the weights with 11st-12lbs to carry but with this 160-rated runner in the race that means the others will ALL race with 10st 12lbs or less. He’s a proven course and distance winner and has been touted at a Champion Hurdle horse in recent seasons – he’s not quite hit those heights yet, but this 6 year-old is still very much the class-act in the race and the one to beat. Having said that, it won’t be easy having to lump that big weight round – the last horse to win the Imperial Cup with that sort of weight was Blowing Wind, who won with 11st 10lbs in 1998. While since 1947, only one winner has carried 11st 12lbs or more (Lanzarote, 1973, 12st 4lbs). Call Me Lord is entered in both the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup next week. Henderson also has the improving Dream Du Grand Val in the race and with this 6 year-old getting 21lbs off it’s stablemate then this will be a huge bonus.

Nicholls is still looking for his first win in the race and in Malaya he’s got a live chance of breaking his duck. This mare gets in with just 10st 2lbs in weight and has finished in the top two in 8 of her 12 hurdles starts. She ticks a lot of the main stats but does fall down on having won too many times (4) and also not being placed in the top two last time out. She’s entered in the County Hurdle next week.

EXTRA MAG (e/w) might be the one worth chancing though. This 5 year-old hails from the Pipe yard, that we’ve already mentioned have a cracking record in this race. He’s lightly-raced with only four career runs so there should be more to come, while this is also his first run in a handicap. He gets in with a low weight (10st) and has gone well in a variety of different ground types. With entries in the Country Hurdle and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle next week at Cheltenham, then should he win here then the bonus could be on again for the Pipe camp.

Of the rest, MONSIEUR LECOQ has impressed this season and heads here on a three-timer, so a saver on him is advised too. He’s up 12lbs for his last win here over course and distance but some of that is offset with the jockey’s 7lb claim. He’s been freshened-up with a few months off but won well enough last time (9 lengths) to suggest there is more to come – any rain though would certainly help his chance. Benny’s Bridge and First Flow are others that are sure to be popular.

 

3.00 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/15 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
14/15 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
13/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15– Won last time out
10/15 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
9/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
8/15 – Aged 5 years-old
1/15 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Tricky races to unravel as we’ve a lot of unexposed sorts running so really stakes should be kept to a minimum. With 14 of the last 15 winners having finished first or second last time out this is a good stat to have on side, while 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old. The Harry Fry yard had a number of entries in the week so whichever ones make the final line-up should be noted – at this stage their 5 year-old, Whitehotchillifili looks their main hope. However, if you are having a bet then the safest option looks to be the Paul Nicholls-trained SILVER FOREVER. This 5 year-old has won three of her four races to date so will have a lot more experience than most and we already know she is capable of putting her head in front. Yes, this will be her biggest test to date but looks a useful mare that is going the right way.

 

3.35 – Matchbook Racing Is Commission Free Handicap Chase Cl3 3m37y ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
14/16 – Carried 11-1 or more
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 –  Rated between 125-134
13/16 – Aged 8 or older
12/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
Pete The Feat (9/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The front-running Loose Chips is another popular stalwart here at Sandown and can go well from the front, but is not getting any younger at 13 years-old. So, in a race the Paul Nicholls yard likes to do well in it could pay to take a chance on their FAVORITO BUCK’S (e/w). This 7 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and his younger legs will be a help against a lot of older horses. He won well in this grade two runs back and wasn’t disgraced last time at Ascot in a Listed Chase – he should find this company a lot easier. Ami Desbois and the Venetia Williams runner- Commodore – are others that can go well, while the Alan King yard often do well with their runners at the track so their old-boy Salmanazar can’t be discounted either.

 

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Sunracing.co.uk Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV

15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Won over a mile (or further) before
13/16– Won at least three times before
13/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/16 – Came from stall 8 or higher
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Big Country (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 15 of the last 16 winners aged 6 or younger then this stat knocks out a fair few – including the likes of Pactolus, Goring, Third Time Lucky and Qaffaal. The consistent Pinnata should be in the shake-up too, but with a cracking 47% record with their older horses at the track then it’s hard to get away from the William Haggas runner – VICTORY BOND (e/w). This 6 year-old returns from a three month break but is sure to be well tuned-up for this return and it’s interesting that the yard are putting up the promising Cieren Fallon to ride and also claim a handy 7lbs. He’s the top-rated horse in the race too and with that 7lb offset his 9-10 weight comes right down to 9-3, which makes him very interesting indeed.

 

3.15 – Sunracing.co.uk Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV

11/12 – Had won over 7f before
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/12 – Rated 104 or higher
7/12 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/12 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/12 – Unplaced last time out
6/12 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/12 – Winning favourite
2/12 – Trained by Marco Botti
Second Thought (8/11) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Oh This Is Us is the top-rated in the field so is the one to beat, but this filly does have to five 5lbs away to the William Haggas runner – ISLAND OF LIFE (e/w). As mentioned in the last race, the yard have a 47% record with their older horses at the track and this 5 year-old is improving all the time – she heads here on a four-timer and there could be more to come. Course and distance winner – Documenting is another to consider, as is Arcanada, Keystoke and Straight Right – but I’ll stick with the Haggas runner, mainly based on the cracking form the horse has been in, plus the yard’s top strike-rate at this venue.

 

 

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