Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 8th Dec 2018

Sandown and Aintree Horse Racing Free Tips

As we move into the second week in December the top-class jump action continues to come at as thick and fast as this Saturday the ITV cameras head to Sandown racecourse for their Tingle Creek meeting, plus they are also up at Aintree racecourse to take in four races that include the Becher Chase and Grand Sefton Chase – two races that are run over the unique Grand National-style fences.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – randoxhealth.com Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
14/15 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Won last time out
13/15 – French (9) or Irish (4) bred
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
10/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (4) last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Gary Moore-trained Diakali is the top-rated in the field and is a fast-improving chaser that’s won his last three. We can expect another bold bid from the front here, but he was a tad lucky to get the win last time after looking beaten until he was gifted the race with a faller at the last. Dynamite Dollars and Highway One O One are others to note, as is the 5 year-old Pacific De Baune from the in-form Nicky Henderson yard, but it was hard to not be impressed with the way LALOR won on his chasing debut at Cheltenham last time. He had Dynamite Dollars 7 lengths back in second that day and it’s hard to see the second revering that form. He jumped and travelled strongly that day and looks a real contender in the 2m novice chase division this season – he’s the current joint favourite for the Arkle and a convincing win here will surely see his price for that race firm-up. Ornua, who travels over from the Henry De Bromhead yard in Ireland, is another to watch in the market as they are probably not just coming over for a day out!

 

2.25 – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4

14/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
9/15 – Rated between 116-128
9/15 – Irish bred~
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
8 of the last 9 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: CD winner, Totterdown is respected but with 12 of the last 15 winners aged 4, 5 or 6 then this 7 year-old has this stat to overcome. APPLE’S SHAKIRA also returns to the track here to try and get her career back on track after flopping at Cheltenham and Aintree last term and after a busy campaign last season she might be worth chancing now freshened-up after a break. The softer ground is fine and the Henderson team, who also have a 30% record with their hurdlers here, have their horses in decent order at the moment. Of the rest, CD winner Eragon De Chanay could be dangerous with a 10lb claimer riding, which will help in conditions, while if the Alan King team have Timoteo back to his best after almost 2 years off then this 5 year-old is another to note in the market. I’m A Game Changer the final one to mention – he’s been second the last three times so can be expected to be in the mix, while with his last win coming on soft ground then conditions look to have come for him too. He rates the biggest threat if Apple’s returns not firing.

 

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Had won a Grade One chase before
13/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
12/16 – Officially rated 165 or higher
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
12/16 – French bred
12/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
9/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8/16 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
5/16 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/16 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only four runners, which is a bit of a shame, but still a cracking contest that really should be going to the Nicky Henderson-trained ALTIOR. His current Champion Chaser has now won his last 14 races – 5 over hurdles and 9 over fences – and being rated 7lbs higher than his nearest rival – Un De Sceaux. He also rounded-off last season with an easy win over this course and distance when taking the Celebration Chase so it really is hard to fault his chance. Un De Sceaux was the 2016 winner of this race and is still going strong at 10 years-old, but it’s worth noting that since the race was first run in 1979 we’ve only had one winner aged 10 or older. It’s nice to see Ruby back over in the UK to ride him though and that is sure to make him popular and let’s not forget he’s not finished out of the top two now in his last nine starts so is sure to be bang there! The new kids on the block – Sceau Royal and Saint Calvados – add plenty of spice to the contest too and will certainly have their supporters. Both should leave their current ratings of 159 and 158 this season and look very promising challengers to Alitor’s crown. Saint Calavados can be expected to take them along from the front and if getting into a rhythm might just be hard to peg back – he did just that last time out over in Ireland and had last season’s Arkle winner – Footpad – well back when that horse fell in that race too. Sceau Royal will be looking to give trainer Alan King his first win in his race and he’ll be raring to go after a top return win at Cheltenham last month. He’s won 5 of his 6 chase starts and is also a CD winner here at Sandown over fences. He’s a strongly-travelling type that could have the race set up for him with Un De Sceaux and Saint Calvados liking to take them along at a fair lick. In summary, probably one of the best four-runner races you’ll ever see, but we’ve got to stick with the champ – Altior.

 

3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

13/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 7 or older
13/14 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
13/14 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
12/14 – Rated 126 or higher
12/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/14 – Aged 8 or older
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/14 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
5/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/14 – Trained by Tom George
1/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Red Infantry is a past course winner here and won well last time out at Haydock – a 5lb rise for that looks fair and he shouldn’t be far away. Chase the Spud and Milansbar are dour stayers that won’t mind conditions, while the consistent Exitas represents the Phil Middleton camp that took this race in 2014 – the softer ground is a slight concern though, but he rarely runs a bad race so can’t be ruled out. Royal Vacation will be better for a recent second at Cheltenham but even though the Tizzard team had a good Saturday last week then are just 4 from their last 44 at the time of writing so that would be a small worry. A yard in better form though is the Lucy Wadham team (29%) so the call here is their SHANROE SANTOS (e/w). This 9 year-old is another course winner and heads here in great form having won well at Fontwell last time. He’s won in soft and gone well on heavy too, so the ground is fine as well. A 5lb rise for that last run looks fair, while jockey Daryl Jacob has a cracking 36% strike-rate when riding over fences at Sandown, plus Wadham also has a decent 24% record with her chasers here.

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.30 – Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

13/16 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
12/16 – Carried 10-12 or less
12/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/16 – Had no more than 1 start that season
11/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – Officially rated between 123-138
11/16 – Irish bred winners
11/16 – Had raced at Aintree before
11/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/16 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
10/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/16 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
7/16 – Placed favourites
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Irish-trained winners
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/16 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Blaklion won the race in 2017
Vieux Lion Rouge won the race in 2016
Highland Lodge won the race in 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: There is every chance that we could see the last three winners of this race – Blaklion, Vieux Lion Rouge and Highland Lodge – line-up again this year, they will all be looking to follow in the hoof-prints of Hello Bud and Into The Red, who are the only horses to have won this race more than once. All three are respected as course form over these National-style fences is a big plus – 11 of the last 16 winners had experienced them before. 12 of the last 16 winners had also carried 10-12 or less in weight, while 11 of the last 16 were aged 9 or older. Last year’s winner – Blaklion – has more weight to carry this year and is also rated 5lbs higher but he beat The Last Samuri by 9 lengths that day and will love it if conditions get any softer – he’s a big player as he looks to become the first ever back-to-back winner of the race but does have a tiny bit to prove after being pulled-up the last time we saw him in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown back in April. Of the three recent winners, the David Pipe-trained VIEUX LION ROUGE (e/w) ticks all of those key trends and despite having a few issues last season might be worth chancing. He’s had a recent wind operation too and returns on a mark only 4lbs higher than his 2016 win. He’s also gone well fresh, while Tom Scudamore is a plus in the saddle. Ultragold is another to note and is a past course winner for the in-form Colin Tizzard yard, while the Twiston-Davies camp also run Go Conquer, who could be interesting off 10st 13lbs. However, the other pick is the Paul Nicholls-trained PRESENT MAN (e/w). This 8 year-old doesn’t quite tick all the main trends but the Nicholls yard have a fair record in this race, with three wins since 2004, and at just 8 years-old there could be more to come from this one. He won the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton last month on his return and despite being up 7lbs here looks the sort to do well over these fences. Bryony Frost rides as she looks to become the first female-winning rider of this prize. Others to note are Don Poli, who returns from almost 2 years out but being the top-rated in the field (160) will have to win with 11-12 on his back. The final one of interest is Missed Approach, who is another that looks the sort to enjoy these fences. He’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past so the 224-day break is fine and he will relish this stamina trip after winning the Kim Muir over this distance at the Cheltenham Festival last season and has also been second in the 4m race at the Festival. Sam Waley-Cohen, who has a decent record over these fences, is also a big plus in the saddle and claims a handy 3lbs too.

 

2.05 – Rewards4Racing Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Aged 8 or younger
4/7 – Winning favourites
Definitly Red won the race in 2017
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 5/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The big talking point here is the return of the 2017 Grand National winner – One For Arthur. He’s been off the track for 609 days since he landed the world’s greatest steeplechase here in April 17, so it remains to be seen how fit he is and if he retains all that old ability. At 9 years-old he’s still got time on his side, but I’d rather take a watching brief on his first run back. Last year’s King George runner-up Double Shuffle is the only to beat on the ratings as he’s off 162 and despite being rated 2lbs lower than Definitly Red, he gets 6lbs from that one. He was last seen falling in the Charlie Hall so needs to bounce back from that, but despite being a player here is a horse that just doesn’t win enough for me – just one success from his last eight races. The already mentioned, DEFINITLY RED is the likely favourite and after winning the Charlie Hall Chase last time out then he is sure to be very popular and looks the most reliable of the four. He’s a CD winner here too and it will be a shock if he’s not going close. Acdc makes up the four but off a rating of 133 is a full 31lbs inferior to the selection so would need to improve a lot, despite getting 6lbs.

 

 

2.40 – Racing UK Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (3Yyo) 2m1f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/6 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
5/6 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/6 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Winning distance 8 or more lengths
5/6 – Carried 10-12 in weight
4/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish-trained winners
2/6 – Trained by Alan King
2/6 – Won last time out
2/6 – Trained by Gavin Cromwell
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 10/3

JUICESTORM VERDICT: If making the trip over then the Gordon Elliott-trained Smiling Eliza, who is yet to finish out of the top two, would be a big player, while recent winners, Fabianski, Tazka and Chica Buena, but the one that looks to set a good standard is the Alan King-trained GIVING GLANCE. The yard often target this race with success – having won it in 2012 and 2014 – while she went into many a notebook after winning well on her hurdles debut at Hereford. She was an 80-rated flat horse and has run 10 times on the level so despite only having one run over hurdles is still a fairly experienced sort. She jumped well last time too and had plenty more in-hand than the 16-length winning margin. Dance To Paris hails from the in-form Lucy Wadham camp and won well on debut last month – she looks to have a nice future, but will be handling a lot softer ground here. Finally, the Gavin Cromwell yard are another that have done well in this race before – wins in 2015 and 2017 – so their runner Lady Camelot is also worth a second glance in the betting.

 

3.15 – Aintree Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

12/13 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
11/13 – Aged 8 or older
11/13 – Rated 124 or more
10/13 – Had run at Aintree before (4 over the GN style fences)
more
9/13 – Irish bred
9/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
8/13 – Carried 10-12 or more
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price
5/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th & 7th)
1/13 – Won last time out
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another chance to see the Grand National fences in action here and with plenty of key trends we should be able to narrow down the field. The age seems to be a key stat with 11 of the last 13 winners being 8 or older – if this is to be repeated then there’s some fairly well-fancied runners like Crievehill, Born Survivor, Catamaran Du Seuil and Romain De Senam seemingly looking too young – 9 of the last 12 winners were either 8 or 9 years-old. 10 of the last 13 winners had also tasted these fences in the past too so the three that catch the eye are CAPTAIN REDBEARD, WARRIORS TALE and KILCREA VALE. Of that trio, Captain Redbeard was a close third at Haydock last time out and will love the softer ground here. Yes, he unseated in the National here back in April but at least he’s tasted the fences before. From 14 runs over fences he’s finished in the top three 9 times. Warriors Tale was a fair fourth here over the standard fences last month so should be a lot better for that run. He was also pulled-up in the National last season but was hampered that day so did have an excuse, but has also run well off this mark in the past and has threatened to win one of these big handicaps in recent years. Finally, KILCREA VALE (e/w) comes from the Nicky Henderson yard and of the three mentioned just edges it. He was fourth in the Topham over these fences in April and gets in off the same mark. A 239-day break might be a concern, but he’s gone well in the past fresh too and the Henderson yard at the time of writing are operating at a 41% strike-rate at the moment. Shanahan’s Turn is also worth a mention as this 10 year-old was a decent second in the Topham Chase here back in April and is only a pound higher. He hails from the in-form Colin Tizzard yard and should be fitter than most after two runs already this term. Certainly, a player and fits most of the main trends, but might not be much value.

 

 

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