Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 7th Dec 2019

Sandown and Aintree Horse Racing Free Tips

As we move into the second week in December the top-class jump action continues to come at as thick and fast as this Saturday the ITV cameras head to Sandown racecourse for their Tingle Creek meeting, plus they are also up at Aintree racecourse to take in four races that include the Becher Chase and Grand Sefton Chase – two races that are run over the unique Grand National-style fences.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Read Road To Cheltenham At racingtv.com Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
15/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – French (10) or Irish (4) bred
13/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (4) last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
10/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (2 winners)
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/16 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising Novice Chasers on show here. Torpillo won well at Warwick last time out and is also a two-time hurdles winner at the track so has to be respected. If running, the 153-rated Summerville Boy is the top-rated in the field and got off the mark over fences at Uttoxeter at the first time of asking. However, his jumping that day was a bit in-and-out and in this better race and over these harder fences I’m giving him a swerve. The Nicholls yard have a top record in the race, so their Grand Sancy has to be respected too. But with 15 of the last 16 winners having won 1-2 times over fences then this chase debutant has that stat against him. So, the one I’m going to side with is the Dan Skelton-trained NUBE NEGRA. This 5 year-old was a fair hurdler and is making into a useful chaser too. He’s 2-from-2 over the bigger obstacles so that experience will be an asset. He’s travelled and jumped well in those wins and acts on all ground, while a 38-day break would have freshened him up with this race in-mind. Harry Skelton rides.

2.25 – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4

15/16 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/16 – Rated between 116-128
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
Man Of Plenty (8/1) won this race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race but doesn’t have a runner this year. We do, however, have last year’s winner – MAN OF PLENTY (e/w) – in the contest. Yes, this 10 year-old has not won since but he’s dropped back down to last year’s winning mark. Any rain will be a plus and should be a lot fitter than most after five runs since September. Of the rest, Groveman is a consistent sort that can run well, while the top-weight – Song For Someone – was a nice winner on his return at Fontwell last month. An 11lb rise for that success makes life harder though in this better race. But the danger can come from PROTEKTORAT. This 4 year-old was a solid second here last time out after a break and can be expected to have improved a lot for that run. He’s running in a handicap for the first time on what looks a fair mark and had a light weight to carry (10-7). Any further rain would enhance his claims, but with only 5 runs over hurdles looks the sort to have more in the locker than most here.

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won a Grade One chase before
14/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
13/17 – Officially rated 165 or higher
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
12/17 – French bred
12/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
9/17 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
6/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/17 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal of the Grade One Tingle Creek, that includes two past winners of the race. Politologue took this prize in 2017 and with Paul Nicholls having 10 Tingle Creek titles to his name then he’s certainly one for the shortlist. This popular grey returned last month with a solid second to Defi Du Seuil at Cheltenham and the two should be closely-matched again. Politologue can be expected to have come on for that run (Defi had already had an outing), while the Nicholls horse is still rated 3lbs higher than Defi. The Hobbs runner – Defi Du Seuil – still looks set to go off favourite and having won 4 of his 7 runs over fences is a fast-improving 2m chaser. However, despite having a great chance, doesn’t look great value in the betting. You’d expect jockey – Daryl Jacob – to have had the pick between Janika and Sceau Royal and even though it might not have been an easy pick, the fact he’s sided with Sceau Royal has to be respected. This Alan King runner ran third in the Champion Chase at the Festival last March and was only 2 ½ lengths behind Altior in the Celebration Chase here in April. However, he was well-beaten (24 lengths) in this race last year so needs to improve on that – on a plus, he’s got a decent record fresh and has won first time out for the last two seasons. Waiting Patiently also makes his return, with his trainer testing the water in this division with potentially no Altior. They are looking to see if he’s got the pace to cope with the drop in trip but having run poorly the last twice I’d rather be a watcher than a backer. Janika will give the Henderson yard an idea on where they stand should they pitch Altior back in trip – but he’s got a fair chance in his own right too. He beat Dolos last time at Exeter in the Haldon Gold Cup and with 8 top two finishes (4 wins) from his 9 runs over fences then he’s a fast-improving chaser. But the call here is for the 2016 winner – UN DE SCEAUX – to regain his Tingle Creek title. Yes, at 11 years-old he’s not getting any younger but showed back in April that he’s still a force to be reckoned with when beating Min by 4 lengths at Punchestown. Let’s not forget he’s still the clear top-rated in the field (171) and that’s 8lbs higher than Defi. He’s gone well off a break in the past and was also a fair runner-up 12 months ago here – but has no Altior this time. Mullins must be happy with him to send him over and with 18 top two finishes (13 wins) from 21 starts over fences then his record is second-to-none.

 

3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Aged 7 or older
14/15 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
14/15 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated 126 or higher
12/15 – Aged 8 or older
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
8/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/15 – Trained by Tom George
1/15 – Winning favourites
Morney Wing (12/1) won this race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Charlie Mann-trained Morney Wing won this race 12 months ago but is rated 6lbs higher this time, so more is needed and has not won since. The race has been won by horse aged 8 or older in 12 of the last 15 years so that’s a negative for the likes of Classic Ben and Captain Cattistock, who are both well-fancied, plus Dragon D’Estruval. Vinnie Lewis, Royal Vacation and Sharp Response have the form to go well, but the two I like here are STEP BACK and SHANTOE SANTOS (e/w). The former was last seen running third in the Bet365 Gold Cup here in April and is a pound lower. He’s a past winner at the track and is actually yet to finish out of the first three from three runs here. He’s gone okay fresh in the past too and unlike some of the others in the race is a horse we know stays this 3m5f trip very well. Shantoe Santos was actually fourth in this race last year but was almost third and sent off favourite that day too. He’s 5lbs lower this time and a recent run (4th) at Fontwell was a solid return run after wind surgery. He’s also likely to get in here with a much lower racing weight and the booking of Brian Hughes is the further icing on the cake.

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 – Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

14/17 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
13/17 – Carried 10-12 or less
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/17 – Had no more than 1 start that season
12/17 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/17 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
11/17 – Irish-bred winners
11/17 – Aged 9 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Aintree before
10/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
7/17 – Placed favourites
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Irish-trained winners
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/17 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Walk In The Mill won the race in 2018
Blaklion won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: WALK IN THE MILL won this race in 2018 and has since finished fourth in the Grand National, so we know these fences are to his liking. He’s only 4lbs higher than when beating another runner here – Vieux Lion Rouge by 4 ½ lengths and should be a lot fitter for his recent run in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton last month. The Paul Nicholls yard have done well in the race, so their As De Mee, who is a past winner over the fences (2016 Sefton Chase) must be on the shortlist with Bryony Frost riding. Richard Johnston will catch the eye riding Alpha Des Obeaux for Gordon Elliott and Definitlty Red, plus the 2017 Grand National winner – One For Arthur – are other big names that are sure to have their supporters. Mulcahys Hill has reportedly schooled well over the fences in the week and ran a blinder to beat Wholestone at Cheltenham last time out, but with just 5 runs over fences that would be a worry. Kimberlite Candy has been well-touted in the week, but has a bit to prove for me, while Vintage Clouds will be fitter for his return run at Kelso. However, it’s hard to ignore the good record of the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard in the race – 6 wins in total – so their BALLYOPTIC (e/w) is the other to have on side. This 9 year-old was outclassed in the Betfair Chase last time, but is still a Grade Two winner this season after taking the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. The softer ground and any more rain will help him and even though he’s fallen the last twice he’s run over these fences, he went well for much of the way in the National last April. That experience of the fences will help and will have Sam Twiston-Davies riding him for the first time over these obstacles – he’s ridden the horse 8 times and only been out of the top 4 on him once (4 wins).

2.05 – Download The App At Virgin Bet Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (3Yyo) 2m1f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/7 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
6/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/7 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Winning distance 8 or more lengths
6/7 – Carried 10-12 in weight
4/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Irish-trained winners
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Trained by Alan King
2/7 – Trained by Gavin Cromwell

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here but the Alan King yard won this race in 2012 and 2014 – they look to have another leading chance this year with MIDNIGHT’S GIFT. This 3 year-old won on his hurdling debut at Fakenham back in October – beating Break The Rules, who also line-up here, but this more galloping track will suit and with that experience I expect him to uphold that form. The former useful Irish flat performer – Operatic Export – looks an interesting recruit to hurdles and if her jumping holds up could be dangerous.

2.40 – Virgin Bet Price Boasts Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Aged 8 or younger
5/8 – Winning favourites
Definitly Red won the race in 2017 and 2018
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent renewal of this Grade Two, with some familiar names on show. Former Gold Cup winner – NATIVE RIVER sets the standard and is also a past CD winner at the track. He also gets a bit of weight from the likes of Black Corton and Aso, Kildsart and Top Notch (if they run) and that looks significant. His regular pilot – Richard Johnson – remains in the saddle and let’s not forget he’s still only finished out of the top three once from 16 runs over fences (8 wins). Of the rest, Might Bite will have his supporters too but he’s got a lot to prove on my book. Yes, he’s certainly got the class to take this but is now on a run of three very average runs so I’d rather taking a watching brief. In his favour, he has run very well here in the past, being 2-from-2 at the track so a return to this venue might spark him back to life.

3.15 – Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

13/14 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
12/14 – Aged 8 or older
12/14 – Rated 124 or more
11/14 – Had run at Aintree before (4 over the GN style fences)
more
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th & 7th)
1/14 – Won last time out
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another run over the National fences here and the one I like is the course specialist – ULTRAGOLD (e/w). This 11 year-old simply loves it here at Aintree and was an excellent third in the Becher Chase at this meeting last term – his form over these National fences reads 1-2-1-3-14 – with the last of those a respectable 14th in the Grand National last April. The drop back in trip is a big plus and he’s also 6lbs lower than 12 months ago. Other big players in the race look to be Casablanca Mix, Gold Present and Flying Angel but the other main pick is TOUCH KICK. This 8 year-old was a good winner at Fakenham last time out and looks the sort to do well over these fences. He ticks most of the main trends and can give Bryony Frost a nice run round.

 

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