Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 29th June 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

We’ve six LIVE races at Newcastle and Newmarket to take in this Saturday with one of the richest handicaps on the flat – the Northumberland Plate – the main event up at Newcastle, plus the ITV Racing team are also showing one race up at York racecourse. It’s also Irish Derby Day at the Curragh so as an added bonus we’ll also have the key trends and our thoughts on this key Group one.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get going!

 

Saturday 29th June 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

2.05 – Randox Health Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

17/17 – Never raced at the track before
15/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
13/17 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/17 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
10/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/17 – Came from stall 4 or lower
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With a 28% record with his 2 year-olds at the track the call here is to side with the Charlie Appleby runner – SUMMER ROMANCE. This juvenile was an eye-catching winner at Yarmouth on debut over this trip and even though that success came on soft ground there is no reason why the quicker surface won’t suit her. Of the rest, Star Alexander won very well last time at Bath and looks a useful prospect, while Ursulina and Rosadora were also both good recent winners last time out. Finally, Frankie rides Companion for the Mark Johnston team, so it would be no shock to see this one supported in the market too.

 

3.15 – Randox Health Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/17 – Won over 7f before
15/17 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
15/17 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/17 – Aged 5 or younger
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/17 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/17 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 8 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Breton Rock won this race in 2016 so can’t be ruled out, but at 9 years-old isn’t getting any younger and is now 11 runs without a win. Suedois is a consistent sort that ran well at this level last time (2nd) – he acts on all ground and shouldn’t be far away. Tabarrak, who is from the Richard Hannon yard that have a good record in the race, and course winner Glorious Journey are others that are sure to be popular in the betting, but the call here is for the Henry Candy-trained LIMATO to bounce back to winning ways. Yes, he’s got to give 5lbs away to the others but is the top-rated in the field and ran well on his return run at York last month (4th). He’ll have come on for that and is also a proven course winner here. The drop back into a Group Three will be a big plus too and this 7f trip looks his best distance these days, with 2 of his last 4 wins coming over it. Of the rest, Frankie teams-up with Mark Johnston again with CARDSHARP (e/w) and of those at bigger prices he can go well. He’s a course winner didn’t get home in the Hunt Cup on softer ground last time at Ascot. The drop back in trip and the quicker ground will help – prior to that Ascot run he won well at York over this 7f trip.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Betfair Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Had won between 1-4 times before
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/17 – Rated 90 or less
9/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ran at York last time out
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
13 of the last 15 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
8 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 10-15

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 4 year-old Air Raid will be popular here after two decent wins. However, he’s up another 8lbs in the ratings and also jumps up two grades. He can go well, but certainly doesn’t look much value in a race of this nature. CD winners Nick Vedder, Katheefa and Deep Intrigue will certainly have their supporters too, but I was taken with the way DALTON quickened well last time to win at Nottingham. He looked to have more than the neck margin in-hand so the 4lb rise looks fair. Okay, that also came on heavy ground and this will be his first try on the AW, but he’s also won on good-to-firm on the turf. He’s in-form and could have more to come. Graham Lee rides. Of the rest, the Tim Easterby-trained STAXTON (e/w) can go well too. This joint top-weight has been running okay in similar races but having been rated in the 100’s recently, his mark of 95 is starting to look attractive. His only run here also resulted in a fourth in this actual race 12 months ago, and he’s rated 5lbs lower this time.

 

2.25 – Betfair Exchange Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Unplaced last time out
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/17 – Yet to win a Group race
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/17 – Aged 5 or older
7/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Won last time out
10 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 1-5
Above The Rest (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: ABOVE THE REST (e/w) took this prize last year and being that he’s a course and distance winner then he commands respect and might be worth having a small interest in. He does need to bounce back from a poor run at York last time but ran in that race last season before coming here to win this. Invincible Army sets the standard and is the clear top-rated in the field – he was last seen running 7th (of 17) in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, but this drop into a Group Three makes life easier. It’s hard to fault his chance, but I just feel there might be better value elsewhere. Mr Lupton is a consistent sort that will be a big player for the Fahey yard, while Laugh A Minute is another with form to suggest he can go well. However, the other pick is the Haggas-trained ISLAND OF LIFE (e/w). The yard boasts an impressive 40% record with their older horses here and he’s another course and distance winner in the field. He’s won three times on the AW (8 runs) and looks equally as good over this 6f trip or over a bit further. He’s a bit to find on the ratings, but will get 8lbs from Invincible Army so that certainly brings the two more closely-matched.

 

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV

Three previous runnings
Cosmeli won the race in 2018
3/3 – Carried 9-7, 9-8 and 9-9 in weight
3/3 – Ran in the last 2 months
3/3 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
2/3 – Won last time out
2/3 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 13/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race for those that didn’t get into the main event, but still some promising stayers on show here. Just the three past runnings to go on, but with all three winners coming from stalls 11-19 this could be a stat to look out for, even though this race is run over 2m. Those that fit the bill here (only 15 runners this year) are Stamford Raffles, Canford Heights, Exceeding Power, Desert Point & Michael’s Mount. It’s interesting that the Ian Williams team won this race a few years ago and run three – Always Resolute, Michael’s Mount and Suegioo. The Charlie Fellowes-trained Carnwennan will attract interest too after two good recent wins. But, for me, he made hard work of it last time at Chelmsford and is up another 4lbs here in a much better race – he’ll need to improve again here. So, the two I like are COUR DE LION and CANFORD HEIGHTS. The latter comes from the William Haggas yard that have a 40% record with their 4+ year-olds here and the horse will have the in-form Tom Marquand riding. A recent 7th at Kempton would have blown away the cobwebs and having won well over this 1m6f trip, is well worth a crack at 2m. Cour De Lion is a proven stayer in these sorts of races and ran well in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f last week. Gets in off the same mark here and also has the promising Thore Hammer Hansen riding to claim 5lbs.

 

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2018 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 – Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
16/17 – Finished fifth or better last time out
15/17 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/17 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/17 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 11 winners)
3/17 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 7
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Roger Varian runner – Gibbs Hill – has been the subject of a huge gamble all week so the bookies will be running scared if he goes in. He’s unexposed with just 7 runs, but does return from a 724 day break. The vibes are clearly positive and he’s gone well fresh in the past. A big player, but unless you were on at the bigger prices then no real value, while this 2m trip will also be the furthest he’s gone (1m4f prior to this was the longest he’d run over). CD winner – Cosmeli – was the winner of the consolation race 12 months ago and can’t be riled out at a big price, while Dubawi Fifty is another proven CD winner to have on your radar. Bartholomeu Dias won well here last time out but that was over 1m4f so the longer trip is a total unknown and he’s also up 4lbs. Of course, we’ve also got last year’s winner – Withhold (now a non-runner) – in the race. He’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Tug Of War in 1977-78. He’s had a wind op since his last run and is 8lbs higher than 12 months ago. Owner Tony Bloom also has the Willie Mullins-trained STRATUM (e/w) in the race and he looks the better value. He heads here after a hurdles win last month and has run well on the AW in the past (Kempton). Unlike a lot of the others, the trip will pose no issues either. Of the rest, with a string of wins next to his name the Mark Johnston runner – King’s Advice – is another that will draw the punter’s eye. He’s up from 1m6f to 2m here, plus raised another 3lbs in the handicap but does look a progressive stayer. The 8 year-old Red Galileo, for Godolphin, won well last time at Newmarket – beating Speedo Boy, who runs here too. But with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger he’s overlooked. Speedo Boy also looks the sort to benefit from stepping back up in trip and with just 8-10 in weight he might be dangerous. Who Dares Wins is another that should be involved but he tends to place more than win these days and a the age of 7 falls down on the main age trend too. The final one to have an interest in is the Ian Williams runner – TIME TO STUDY (e/w). This 5 year-old was third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting last week over 2m4f so staying this 2m trip will be fine. He’s won on the AW (Chelmsford) too and off a mark of 96 looks very well-treated considering he was rated as high as 108 when trained by Mark Johnston last year.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV)

2.45 Summer Music Saturday Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 3 from 112 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 5 from 127 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 20 runners and a very open-looking contest. Soldier’s Minute, Intisaab, Paddy Power, Quick Look, Flying Pursuit, George Bowen and Golden Apollo are all proven CD winners at the track that command respect. Of that bunch, Paddy Power, Quick Look and FLYING PURSUIT (e/w) all come here in good form, but the last-named is of more interest. This 6 year-old indicated that a return to form was close last time with a fine 4th at York and he gets in off a pound lower. That was also over 7f but this drop back in trip is a plus after getting tired in the final stages that day. He is also back to his last winning mark (94) and does seem to save most of his best runs for here at York. The other one I’ll be playing is the consistent GULLIVER (e/w), who rarely runs a bad race. We was a close 4th last time at Windsor and prior to that beaten just a head behind another runner here – Hyperfocus. But, Gulliver is another that is starting to look well-handicapped at the moment – having been rated in the 100’s last season, while in this higher grade he gets in with a lower racing weight to carry that recent runs (9-2).

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

5.20 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 – CAMELOT (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard
13/16 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
14/16 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won a Group race before
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/16 – Failed to win their last race
11/16 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
10/16 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 12 times in all)
7/16 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/16 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Like most years, the Irish Derby seems to be about one trainer – Aidan O’Brien – who has won this race a staggering 12 times. He’s once again mob-handed with 5 of the 8 runners, with his Epsom Derby winner – ANTHONY VAN DYCK and fourth Broome are his clear main players. The Kevin Prendergast runner Madhmoon – who was runner-up in the Derby also re-opposes and is sure to have his supporters too in a bid to spoil the O’Brien party. He also clipped heels during that Epsom race so his backers will cling to that as a reason why he can overturn the form – but I’m not so sure. I feel there is more to come from the Derby winner and he’s already a winner at the track. Ryan Moore, who is yet to ride the winner in this race, would have had the pick of the O’Brien runners so the fact he’s sided with AVD is another good sign he’s progressed since Epsom – he can become the first horse to win both races since Harzand in 2016, and follow in the hoof prints of other O’Brien runners – like High Chaparral, Galileo , Australia and Camelot, who also achieved the Epsom/Irish Derby double.

 

 

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