Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 27th April 2019

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends

Yes, a huge day ahead this Saturday as we end the jumps season with a cracking card at Sandown – four LIVE races on ITV, including the Bet365 Gold Cup, but as an added extra this week we’ve got EVERY race from the Esher track covered – while there is also LIVE action at Haydock and Leicester – with their races are covered too.

Put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

One previous running
Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is 0 from 35 with his hurdlers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race. The Nicky Henderson yard have a good record with their hurdles at the track though, so anything they run should be noted – at this stage they’ve got Dream Du Grand Val and Heatstroke entered. Fergal O’Brien (Benny’s Bridge) and Alan King (Scarlett Dragon & Harambe) are other stables to note here with their hurdlers, while the Dan Skelton camp don’t do as well with no winners from their last 35 over hurdles here. The Powerful Paul Nicholls yard have Getaway Trump, who was an easy winner at Ayr last time out but is also up a further 4lbs. However, he’s got his fair share of weight, so the call here goes to the already-mentioned HARAMBE (e/w) and LORD YEATS (e/w). The former comes here on a three-timer after wins at Kempton and Market Rasen, while a 5lb rise for the last of those wins doesn’t look too harsh. He stays further than this too and has won on softer ground should the rain come. Lord Yeats was a decent fourth (of 19) at Aintree last time out, but if the track does get some rain then this will help his chance. He was a useful stayer on the flat and from just five runs over hurdles has hit the top two four times (2 wins). He gets in off just a pound higher than last time and jockey Tommy Dowson remains in the saddle to take off 3lbs.

 

2.25 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV

Just 5 previous running
Menorah (Owned by Diana Whateley) won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
5/5 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
4/5 – Irish bred
4/5 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
4/5 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/5 – Ran at Aintree last time out
Top Notch (4/5 fav) won the race in 2018
The average SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/4
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Plenty of old faces on show here. The Henderson and Nicholls yards are both well-represented during the entry stages of this race so whichever ones they run should be respected. Henderson has Gold Present & Josses Hill in the race, but both need to bounce back after unseats and a fall last time out. Cobra De Mai is the only last-time out winner in the field so commands respect based on that, while Definitly Red, who we last saw being brought down in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but was a good winner of the Charlie Hall back in November and certainly has the form to go well here. Charbel was pulled-up in the Ryanair Chase last time, but was a good winner of the Peterborough Chase in December and if returning at that level would be a big player. However, the safer call here is to side with the Paul Nicholls-trained BLACK CORTON. This 8 year-old bypassed both Cheltenham and Aintree so will be a lot fresher than most. He’s a consistent chaser that stays further than this 2m6f trip so I expect connections to make full use of that and if allowed to get into a nice rhythm over these fences might prove hard to peg back – Bryony Frost also returns from injury to ride.

 

3.00 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
12/16 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
11/16 – Rated 160 or higher
9/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourite
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/16 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017 & 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
Jockey Daryl Jacob has a 31% record riding over fences at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Sceau Royal served it up to Altior in the Champion Chase at the Festival, but couldn’t sustain the run up the hill to eventually finish third behind the champ. And really, it’s likely to be more of the same here. Yes, Sceau Royal is a strong-travelling sort that is also a CD winner at Sandown, but he was also 24 lengths behind Altior in the Tingle Creek here back in December and is rated 11lbs inferior too – it’ll be a shock if he can turn the tables, you feel that last run was his chance. So, it should be win number 14 for the Henderson-trained ALTIOR here. The quicker ground – if the rain doesn’t come – is fine as he’s a horse that’s won on a variety of different conditions and will be looking for win number five at the Esher track. Gods Own, Diego Du Charmil and Vosne Romanee, along with Sceau Royal, can all have their own private battle for the places.

 

3.35 – bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

16/16 – Had raced in the last 56 days
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
13/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
13/16 – Had won over 3m or further before
12/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had raced in the last 25 days
9/16 – Officially rated 140 or higher
9/16 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
8/16 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/16 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/16 – Winning favourites
Step Back (7/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 15 runnings (40%)
12 of the last 16 (75%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Bet365 Gold Cup has been a graveyard race for favourite backers in recent years, with the last winning market leader coming in 2000. It’s also been a bad race for horses coming off a break as ALL of the last 16 winners took this having raced within the last 56 days – not good news for two of the popular ones in the betting – Talkischeap, who last raced 63 days ago, and Present Man, who was in action 98 days ago. Horses aged 9 or younger have done best too – winning 12 of the last 16 so that might be deemed a negative for the 10 year-olds – Joe Farrell, Vyta Du Roc, The Young Master, who won this race in 2016 – while we’ve also two 11 year-olds in Rathlin Rose and Le Reve. With 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 11-5 or less his means the top-weight Beware The Bear and Yala Enki have this stat to overcome, while 23 of the last 28 winners actually carried less than 11st – this further rules out Rock The Kasbah, who was runner-up in the race 12 months ago and sixth in 2017. Last year’s winner – STEP BACK (e/w) – does, however, tick all the mentioned trends and can go well again. This 9 year-old gets in with 10st 11lbs and despite being rated 10lbs higher than last year does seem to run well at Sandown (1st and 3rd). Yes, he was pulled up in the National, but this shorter trip will help and should be much better for the run as it came after 3 months out. Nico De Boinville gets on well with him too and I think he’s got a good chance of becoming the first horse since Topsham Bay (1992-93) to win this race in back-to-back seasons. The only slight niggle is that he’s hovering around the favourites berth and this race hasn’t been the kindest to market leaders recently. Of the rest, 8 year-olds have done well in the race of late, so ROLLING DYLAN (e/w), PRIME VENTURE (e/w) and CAPTAIN CHAOS (e/w) are others to consider at the bigger prices. Of that trio, Rolling Dylan has run well over this sort of trip in the past and with just 10-9 will be racing with his lightest weight since going chasing. While the Nicholls-trained Give Me A Copper is sure to be popular with just 10-9 in weight. He’s lightly-raced with just 4 runs over fences and I’ve already mentioned the good record of the yard in this race. It wouldn’t surprise me in the money came for him in the build-up, but after falling last time out he’s got to bounce back and weakened over 3m here at Sandown back in February over 3m – yes, he’s got 16lbs less in weight to carry but he’s also got another 5 furlongs to go this time. Just A Sting will have Sean Bowen riding and he’s actually won two of the last three runnings of this race, while course winner Ballydine also gets in with very light weights and if putting recent poor runs behind them can’t be dismissed.


HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Old Boston Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 5 or younger
5/6 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/6 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/6 – Won over 7f in the past
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
4/6 – Irish bred
3/6 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/6 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/6 – Winning favourites
Safe Voyage (14/1) win the race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Trainer Richard Hannon won the race in 2015
Trainer Roger Fell has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the six past runnings but there are a few patterns building up. ALL of the last six runners were aged 5 or younger, so of the 14 runners that leaves us with 8 – Ptarmigan Ridge, Great Prospector, Cold Stare, Lord Oberon, Masham Star, Wahash, Golden Apollo & Rufus King. 5 of the last 6 winners carried between 8-7 and 9-5 but all the mentioned 8 fit into this category. 83% of the last 6 winners did come from stalls 1-5 though, so this helps whittle down the runners a bit more – GREAT PROSPECTOR (4), MASHAM STAR (3) & Wahash (1) look the three to focus on. The Hannon yard won this in 2015 too so their Wahash will be trying to add to that success for the stable. He was a fair third last time out at Bath, but with no wins from 18 runs on the turf that’s got to be a worry. Great Prospector represents the Hanagan/Fahey combination and despite running down the field last time will be a lot fitter for it as it came off a 6 month break. Once rated 106, his current mark of 94 looks attractive too so he looks interesting at a nice price. Masham Star is from the Mark Johnston yard and is another that’s dropping down the ratings after some below-par runs. After running over a mile recently the drop back to 7f is a plus as he’s been up with the pace but just fading in the closing stages. He’s 7lbs lower than starting out this season and now just starting to look on a dangerous mark again. Of the rest, I have to also mention last year’s winner – Safe Voyage – he’s sure to have this race as a target and has gone well fresh in the past – he is a massive 15lbs higher than last year though.

 

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)

2.45 – EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV

10/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Won at least twice in the past
8/10 – Had won over 7f in the past
8/10 – Irish bred winners
7/10 – Last ran 2+ months ago
7/10 – Officially rated 107 or higher
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/10 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
Emmaus (9/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 3/1
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 80% of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5 then the 6 year-old Donjuan Triumphant is overlooked, despite being weighted to go well here and with jockey Silvestre De Sousa riding, who has a 31% record on older horses at the track. The Stoute-trained Eqtidaar looks set to go off favourite – let’s not forget he landed the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last season so this drop into Listed company will be easier too. However, he’s not really built in that success since and been well beaten since – albeit in Group Ones too. He’ll find this company more to his liking but with just 1 win from 6 on the turf maybe isn’t the most reliable. Cardsharp and Larchmont Lad are generally consistent sorts and they can run better than their odds suggest, while Frankie catches the eye riding the James Tate-trained – HEY GAMAN. The drop back to 7f looks a good move after not really seeing out a mile last season. Draw 2 looks fine and this 4 year-old is rated 113, which is actually the highest in the field, and he’s gone well off a break in the past. Laugh A Minute is the other one to mention and represents last year’s winning connections of Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni. However, he’s not been out since last November and the last few seasons has tended to need a run or two before getting going. He’s certainly got the potential to improve this term, but is also rated 107, which is actually the lowest in the field.

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