Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 26th May 2018

Free horse racing tips and trends

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in eight races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.

Did you know? 6 of the last 9 Temple Stakes winners came from stalls 6 or lower, while 13 of the last 16 successful horses were aged 5 or younger.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get started!

 

Saturday 26th May 2018

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.55 – Netbet Mobile Bet10Get10 Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV4

13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/14 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/14 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/14 – Won last time out
First Sitting won the race in 2017
Spark Plug was second in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With First Sitting and Spark Plug filling the first two places in this race 12 months ago, then with both lining-up again they must have decent chances once more. Both returned to action this season by finishing sixth recently and so we can expect those outings to have blown away the cobwebs with this race in mind. Of the two though I’d probably rather be with the current champ FIRST SITTING. This 7 year-old was a fair sixth at Sandown last time in the Group Three Gordon Richards Stakes but that was not only a hot race but, as pointed out, his return run. He’ll, therefore, strip a lot fitter for that and this also represents a slight drop in grade. Connections would have has this prize as a target and he’s taken to go well again. What About Carlo likes the track and would be interesting if a significant amount of rain turned up, but I’m not sure that’s likely and might just get tapped for toe in faster conditions, while his yard (Eve Johnson Houghton) are just 1 from 26 with their older horses at the track. With 10 of the last 14 winners aged 4 or 5 then Autocratic, Algometer and Billesdon Bess are the only three that fit the bill on that age trend, while 13 of the last 14 winners had raced in the last 5 weeks. The 5 year-old ALGOMETER is the highest-rated in the field and is another course winner, while despite returning from a 301 day break is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. This David Simcock-trained runner might have a small bit to prove over this trip with his better runs coming over shorter but ground conditions look ideal and jockey Andrea Atzeni catches the eye in the saddle – he’s got a 17% record (+52) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track. Of the rest, course and distance winner Billesdon Bess might do best of those at bigger prices. She gets weight all-round and will be fitter for her return run but the yard would need to improve on their 3-from-60 strike-rate with their 4+ year-olds here at Goodwood.

 

2.30 – Netbet Sport Handicap (3yo) Cl2 7f ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – returned 9/2 to 12/1
5/5 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc)
5/5 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
5/5 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/5 – carried between 8-0 and 8-4
3/5 – Rated between 77-81
3/5 – Won just once before
3/5 – Winners from stall 3
2/5 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/5 winning favourites
Richard Hannon, Mark Johnston (2), Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Trainer William Haggas has a 25% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 20% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer George Scott is 2 from 6 with his 3 years-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is just 2 from 26 with his 3 year-olds at the track
The average SP in the last 5 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five previous running of this handicap to go on but with trainer Mark Johnston having won two of those then his Aquarium and Vale Of Kent can’t be overlooked. Both had been consistent sorts up until their last runs so would need to bounce back but the yard is going well at the moment so it’s totally possible they can. Another stable going great guns at present is the John Gosden camp – at the time of writing they are boasting a 32% strike-rate – and are also 10 from 50 (20%) with their 3 year-olds at the track – they run the top-weight Emaraaty and Fennaan, who both look to have similar chances. With 3 of the last 5 winners coming from stall 3 then this is a plus for the Clive Cox-trained Grand Koonta. 4 of the last 5 winners also carried between 8-0 and 8-4 so this is a plus for the bottom 10 (of the 16) on the card – including the Richard Fahey-trained MAYBRIDE. This 3 year-old won well at Newmarket on her return run last month and a 6lb rise for that looks fair. Connections have also booked the experienced Martin Dwyer, who has a 26% record when riding 3 year-olds here, to do the steering. Yes, this will be her first time up to 7f but she certainly wasn’t stopping over 6f last time so there could be more to come over this longer trip and she’s certainly one I’d rather have on my side. Neola is the only proven course winner in the field but she hails from the Mick Channon yard that are just 4 from 61 with their 3 year-olds at the course – those stats would be a worry. Another Batt, Maverick Officer and Richenza are others to note but with a 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the track it’s hard to get away from the William Haggas-trained SOCIETY POWER. This horse also looks to have a nice draw in 2 – all of the last 5 winners came from stalls 2-6 – while this improving colt heads here at the top of his game after four straight wins. Yes, more is needed being up in the ratings again but there looked to be a bit more in the locker than the ½ winning margin from last time at Ascot and he also had one of the Gosden runners – Fennaan – back in fourth that day. He can continue his rise up the ranks with Andrea Atzeni riding.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

3.05 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 23% (+28) record with his 4 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 18% record (+17) with his 4 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: No previous runnings of this race but with the William Haggas (23%) and Ralph Beckett (18%) yards having decent strike-rates with their 4 year-olds then their runners – Mam ‘Selle (Haggas) and Isabel De Urbina (Beckett) – are sure to be popular. Of the pair the Beckett-trained ISABEL DE URBINA caught the eye when winning on her return to the track at Goodwood earlier this month and they way she stayed on over that 1m4f trip suggests there will be more to offer over this 1m6f distance. Harry Bentley rides and she gets the call. The Haggas team reach for the first-time hood for their Mam’Selle but she was 2 ¾ lengths adrift of Isabel last time so does seem to have a bit of ground to make up with the Beckett runner. The French raider – Do Re Mi Fa Sol – could easily be hitting the right notes too (sorry for the pun) as we’ve seen the French runners raid these shores with a lot of success over the last few months or so. Her form is hard to translate but have won on good ground and also tried this 1m6f trip when a fair third over is in a Listed race at Longchamp three weeks ago. Cribbs Causeway and Jet Streaming look set to be the outsiders but could run better than their odds suggest – however, the main danger to the pick can come from the John Gosden runner – Precious Ramotswe. This 4 year-old has won three of her four starts and it’s interesting connections are upping her from 1m2f right up to 1m6f. Yes, that is a bit of an unknown and her only flop cam over 1m4f (the furthest she’s gone) but that also came on very soft ground. Connections clearly feel she’ll come with the trip and was going away – albeit over 1m2f – last time at Brighton. This is a big step up in grade but the yard is boasting a very decent 32% strike-rate at present, which is a further plus. I’ll take her to follow home Isabel De Urbina, who has a bit more proven form at this sort of level.

 

3.40 – Unibet Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/4 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
3/4 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/4 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
3/4 – Didn’t win last time out
3/4 – Winning distance ½ length or less
2/4 – Aged 4 years-old
1/4 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight win the race 12 months ago
Trainer Dave Griffiths has a 20% strike-rate with this older horses at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 3 from 134 (2%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 11 from 236 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 3 from 94 (3%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 2 from 48 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 9 from 171 (5%) with his older horses at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We can expect the very quick El Astronaute to blast out of the stalls again here and make a bold bid – just like he did over course and distance last week. He won well here 9 days ago and a 3lb rise for that victory looks fair enough. He was drawn 2 last week though, so draw 17 will make things a lot different this time. Major Jumbo and Carlton Frankie, who were third and fourth that day, can be expected to go close too as they were only just in behind. Of the pair CARLTON FRANKIE might just have more to come as this is only her second run back after wind surgery and that was also her first run for 7 months. She came out of stall 12 that day but draw 3 looks slightly better this time– she can go well with just 8-6 on her back – she’s the first one for the shortlist. The horse that does have a lot more to carry is DUKE OF FIRENZE, who has top-weight of 10-0 to lump round. However, that is because this 9 year-old is the top-rated in the field on 107 and based on that the one to beat. The Dave Griffiths camp do very well with their older sprinters and this York track, where he’s won before, will suit his old legs a lot better than the tight turns of Chester last time. He still ran well last time to be fourth to the classy Kachy and last May he took a few runs to get going before winning here. Mr Lupton, Dakota Gold, Evergate and Edward Lewis are others to respect but with ALL of the last four winners coming from stalls 5-9 (inc) then the ones that fit the bill here are Fendale (5), Duke Of Firenze (6), Evergate (7), Boundsy (8) and Quick Look (9).

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.15 – Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap Cl2 2m45y ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Winners aged 4 or 5
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
4/4 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/4 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
4/4 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
4/4 – Unplaced favourites
4/4 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
3/4 – Rated between 91-98
No winning favourite yet
Trainers Mark Johnston, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The consistent Bryon Flyer can be expected to make a bold bid here and will be a lot fitter for a recent run at Chester. We know he stays further than this 2m trip so that will be a big plus and jockey Silvestre De Sousa is an eye-catching jockey booking. The William Haggas (25%) and Mark Johnston (23%) yards are going well at the moment so their The Grand Visir and Dominating command respect, while it might be worth noting the Johnston camp also won this race 12 months ago. Sunblazer is a rare flat runner for trainer Kim Bailey but has a decent level of form over hurdles and we know stays this trip, while Good Run and Euchen Glen are others that certainly have the form to make their presence felt if on-song. However, the call here is for MANCINI to continue it’s winning run. I was taken by this 4 year-olds recent win at Lingfield over a slightly longer trip and there looks as if there is more to come. He powered away to win by 6 lengths that day and despite being 8lbs higher in the ratings here is actually carrying 9lbs less being this is a higher grade. He ticks most of the main trends and as opposed to a lot of the others, with only seven career runs there should be much more improvement to come from this Jonathan Portman-trained runner.

 

2.50 – Amix Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

15/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/15 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/15 – Placed last time out
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
5/15 – Won last time out¬
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainers Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston have dominated this race in recent years – winning 5 of the last 15 – including the last two runnings between them. With that in mind it, could pay to keep things simple here and side with their runners. Johnston runs two – Book of Dreams and VENTURA KNIGHT – but with the last-named coming here in better form after a nice win at Doncaster then he looks their better hope. A 3lb rise for that looks fair and he’s a horse that clearly enjoys the quicker surfaces and is also just a few pounds higher than when winning at Doncaster last October. CROWNTHORPE was last seen running well to be fourth at Newmarket but might not have been totally suited by the track that day and is also a pound lower here. He won well the time before at Ripon and is only 4lbs higher this time. Yes, that win also came on soft ground but he’s won on a good surface too and has been freshened up with three weeks off. Recent winners Crack On Crack On, Qaysar and Completion will all be popular in the betting but might not represent much value, while trainer Tom Dascombe has two live chances as well with course winner Finniston Farm and Dragon’s Tail, who ran a blinder to be a close second at Chester last time out.

 

3.25 – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – From stall 5 or higher
8/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/14 – Raced at York last time
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Clive Cox camp took this race 12 months ago with the classy Harry Angel and they look to have another cracking chance – this time with HEARTACHE. This 3 year-old filly was an easy winner of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last season and to date has won three of her four starts. She rounded off the season last term with another Group Two success in the Flying Childers at Doncaster and with another winter on her back looks set for another big campaign. This step up to 6f is a slight concern with all her runs coming over shorter but will be a stronger filly this season and getting the 3lb fillies allowance, plus this quick ground will also help. It’s a tight race though and there are plenty more options away from the Cox runner. James Garfield landed the Group Three Greenham in good fashion this season and wasn’t disgraced when 7th (of 14) in the 2,000 Guineas. He was only beaten 4 ½ lengths behind Saxon Warrior that day so that form probably sets the standard based on form this season. Sands Of Mali is the joint highest-rated in the field and on his 2 ¾ length Gimcrack win at York last August has already won at this level too. He also returned with a win over in France last month so will head here in tip-top order and looks another big player. Unfortunately is the other top-rated in the line-up and would certainly be a player on his Group One Prix Morny win last season but he does return from a 238 day break so might just need this. Invincible Army won well on his return too, when landing a Group Three at Ascot – he’s closely matched with the likes of James Garfield and Sands Of Mali. However, the one that might be a bit more value in the field is the Brian Meehan runner – BARRAQUERO. This 3 year-old was last seen landing the Group Two Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood back in August and despite not been seen since he’s a horse that connections are clearly taking their time with. Trip and ground are fine and with only three career runs should have more in the locker – he could be the value play against the main four in the betting.

 

4.00 – Armstrong Aggregates Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/16 – Trained in the UK
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Raced within the last 2 months
10/16 – Placed third or better last time out
9/16 – Favourites that were placed
9/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won their latest race
2/16 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Clive Cox (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 13/2
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Kachy was super impressive when winning at Chester earlier this month but the tight turns really suited this 5 yer-old, who we know likes to blast out and win his races in the first few furlongs – things will be a bit different here up the more testing Haydock straight. He’s still a big player though as it was a cracking effort to win by 9 lengths that day but I just think he’s vulnerable on this track. He was only fifth in this race 12 months ago, while his last four runs at this course doesn’t read well 6-10-5-2. Take Cover is another speedball that likes to get on with things. This Dave Griffiths-trained runner is still going strong at 11 years-old and should have more races in him this term – but maybe at Group Three, or Listed level. Havana Grey and Muthmir are consistent sorts at this level and should be thereabouts, but, really, it’s hard to look beyond the classy BATTAASH here. This 123-rated sprinter sets the clear standard on his easy 4 length Abbaye win in France last October and last season his only blot from five runs came at York in the Nunthorpe. He won well first time out last season so the 237 day break isn’t a worry and despite having to give 5lbs away to most of the others he is still rated 10lbs higher than the next best runners – Kachy and Muthmir – so should still have a fair bit in-hand. Those against him might look to him being beaten on his only run here at Haydock (3rd 2016), but he’s a much better horse now and the vibes coming out of the Charlies Hills camp are that he could be even better this season. He’s expected to take this before heading to the other big sprinting targets through the season. Dane O’Neill, who won on the horse twice last season, replaces Jim Crowley, who heads over to Ireland to partner Elarqam in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

 

 

 

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