Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 25th May 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in NINE races across FOUR venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park – plus, they are also over at the Curragh for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Did you know? 6 of the last 10 Temple Stakes winners came from stalls 6 or lower, while 14 of the last 17 successful horses were aged 5 or younger.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get started!

 

Saturday 25th May 2019


Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.55 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV4

14/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/15 – Won last time out
Spark Plug was second in 2017 and third in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 4 and 5 year-olds have held the best records in this race in recent years – winning 10 of the last 15. Therefore, the only CD winner in the field – Fabricate – has this to overcome as a 7 year-old, as does Thundering Blue, who is 6. Extra Elusive represents the Roger Charlton yard that took this is 2016, while the Charlie Appleby team landed the prize in 2014 and run Vintager. Elarqam has the form to go well too, but the improver in the race might be WILLIE JOHN. This Roger Varian-trained 4 year-old was a bit disappointing as a beaten favourite in fourth last time out, but that came off a 6 month break so can be expected to improve for it, plus it was only his fourth career run. I also feel the drop back in trip will suit after recording an easy 5 length success over this distance last August. I’ll take EXTRA ELUSIVE who sports the first-time blinkers, as the danger.

 

2.30 – Betfair Each Way Edge Handicap (3yo) Cl2 7f ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc)
6/6 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
6/6 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/6 – Winners from stall 2 or 3
5/6 – returned 9/2 to 12/1
4/6 – carried between 8-0 and 8-4
3/6 – Rated between 77-81
3/6 – Won just once before
3/6 – Winners from stall 3
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/6 winning favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (last 2 runnings)
William Haggas, Richard Hannon, Mark Johnston (2), Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Trainer William Haggas has a 29% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is 2 from 32 with his 3 years-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hughes is just 1 from 29 with his 3 year-olds at the track
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The first thing to note here is that we’ve only had six previous runnings of the race, but with ALL six past winners came from stalls 2-6. Therefore, if this is to be repeated the 14 runners are now down to just 5 – Mr Diamond, Dunkerron, Beat Le Bon, Jack’s Point and Flashcard. If we want to take that draw trend a bit further then a staggering 5 of the last 6 winners actually came from stalls 2 or 3! This means MR DIAMOND (e/w) and DUNKERRON (e/w) get a big thumbs-up. The former is running 3lbs out of the handicap but was a good winner last time at Wetherby and off just 8-0 (plus 3lb jockeys claim) gets into this better race with a featherweight. Dunkerron is trained by Alan King and can be expected to be a lot fitter for his recent return run that came off almost 8 months off. The step up to 7f will suit too and he’s 9lb lower if you include the jockeys claim.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)


3.05 – William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Just 1 previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 32% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 3 from 52 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 24 (4%) is this 4+year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: No real trends to go on as such with just one previous running. However, the John Gosden yard won this race 12 months ago and also boast a decent 31% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track so their ENBIHAAR is the call. This filly was a nice winner at Goodwood last time out over 1m4f and looks worth another crack over this 1m6f trip. With just four career runs she looks a much stronger horse this season and even though Adam Kirby is a bit of a strange jockey booking for the yard, there is a lot of racing today so Gosden’s hands are pretty much tied with his regular pilots dotted about at other venues. Of the rest, Maid Up and Pilaster are weighted to go well too so shouldn’t be far away, while the improving BAYSHORE FREEWAY(e/w) might do best of those at bigger prices after winning her last two in gutsy fashion.

 

3.45 – William Hill Leading On Course Bookmaker Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/5 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Winning distance ½ length or less
3/5 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/5 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/5 – Aged 4 years-old
1/5 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 5 from 120 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 8 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 1 from 40 (3%) with his older horses at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Copper Knight won this race 12 months ago and should go well again – he comes here off the back of a good win over this course and distance, but a 5lb rise in the ratings makes life harder. EL ASTRONAUTE is another proven CD winner here and is better than recent runs suggest and gets the nod to bounce back. He’s dropped a pound from last time but connections are also putting on a 5lb claimer this time – that will help. 4 of the last 5 winners were also drawn in stalls 5-9, so draw 8 ticks this stat too! The others with the key draw trend on their side are Acclaim The Nation, Abel Handy, A Momentofmadness and Holmswood.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)


2.15 – Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap Cl2 2m45y ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Winners aged 4 or 5
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
5/5 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/5 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
5/5 – Unplaced favourites
5/5 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
4/5 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
4/5 – Rated between 90-98
No winning favourite yet
Trainers Wiliam Haggas, Mark Johnston, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last five winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then of the 10 runners only four fit the bill – EDEN ROSE, PIRATE KING, LUCKY DEAL and MAGELLAN. With the last 5 winners also having NOT won last time out then this rules out the hat-trick seeking Eden Rose, who is the only recent winner in the field. Pirate King can go well and should improve for a recent third, but the call here is for LUCKY DEAL (e/w) to bounce back. This Mark Johnston runner ran below-par last time out in the Chester Cup but that track doesn’t always suit and the softer ground wouldn’t have helped. The drop back in trip and quicker surface will be a plus and Franny Norton, who knows the horse well, is back in the plate. Course winners Watersmeet and My Reward are others to mention, while the consistent BUSY STREET (e/w) should not be far away after being dropped 4lbs for his last run.


2.50 – Amix Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
13/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/16 – Placed last time out
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 6)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Mark Johnston has won two of the last six runnings so his OASIS PRINCE gets the call here. This 3 year-old has won his last three and is a past CD winner at the track too. A 4lb rise for his last success looks fair and he’s a horse that’s acted well on most ground. He only got up by a head last time but the manner of that success suggests there is more to come with this only being his fifth run. Johnston also runs Reggae Runner, Octave and Victory Command. With 10 of the last 16 winners drawn in stalls 8 or lower and having also finished in the top four last time out, then Munhamek. Loch Ness Monster, Awe and Beatboxer are others with several key trends on their side.


3.25 – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Let’s keep this simple – it will be a huge shock if the unbeaten CALYX isn’t taking this. The John Gosden 3 year-old has been ultra-impressive in winning his three career runs to date and returned better than ever earlier this month to win well at Ascot. He can take this before heading to Royal Ascot and the Commonwealth Cup next month. Hello Youmzain, True Mason and Royal Intervention can fight it out for the places.


4.00 – Armstrong Aggregates Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

16/17 – Trained in the UK
15/17 – Had won over 5f before
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/17 – Placed third or better last time out
10/17 – Favourites that were placed
10/17 – Had won a Group race before
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won their latest race
2/17 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/17 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 3 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 6/1
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some serious speedsters on show here. Last year’s winner – BATTAASH – will be all the rage and is rated 8lbs higher than anything else in the field so it’s hard to look beyond him again. He’s had wind surgery over the winter and having won first time out for the last two seasons suggests his 230-day break isn’t too much of a worry. Jim Crowley rides and if back to his best should win. Mabs Cross supporters will have hope though as she beat the selection in France last season and also comes here fit from a win at HQ. She’s a very consistent mare that will go lose again, but having to give 2lbs away to most of the others makes life harder. The speedy Kachy can take them along, but I’m not sure the open spaces of Haydock will suit – he seems better around a bend, where his pace can nick him a few more lengths. Alpha Delphini has run well in this race in the past and is another to consider but with 8lbs to find with the ‘Batman’ he’ll likely need a career-best to take this.

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.35 Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
14/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
14/17 – Had won over either 7f or 1m before
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top two
13/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won between 1-4 times before
12/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Had run at the Curragh before
11/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/17 – Had won a Group 1 race before
8/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Trained by a UK-based stable
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 5/1
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The powerful Aidan O’Brien yard have won this race a staggering 11 times and five of the 14 runners he’s throwing a lot of ammo at the prize again. Of his bunch, his 2,000 Guineas winner MAGNA GRECIA is the clear form pick as he looks to become the latest O’Brien runner to win both the English and Irish Guineas – he’s managed it four times since 2002. His Invincible Spirit colt won that Newmarket Classic by an easy 2 ½ lengths and with that coming on just his fourth career run should have more improvement to come. He beat one of the main English challengers – Phoenix Of Spain – in the Vertum Futurity Trophy last October but looks to have kicked-on again over the winter and can take this. The Gosden-trained Too Darn Hot will be his biggest threat – and being he’s rated 8lbs higher than the selection is the one to beat. The yard won this race in 2014 with Kingman too and a recent second in the Dante Stakes should have blown away the cobwebs. The drop back to a mile will suit, but I’d just be worried how hard a race he had last time as he got into a bit of a battle with the winner – Telecaster. He’s the one to beat, but will this race come just a bit too soon – we’ll see. Of the rest, Guineas third Skardu can’t be ruled out, while the best of the other Irish runners looks to be Decrypt, who won well at Cork last month to suggest there is more in the locker.

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