Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 25th Jan 2020

Cheltenham and Doncaster Free Tips and Trends

Another huge day of horse racing this Saturday as it’s ‘Trials Day’ up at Cheltenham. This is their last meeting before the Festival in March, so plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase.

The ITV cameras are also up at Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard has won twice in the last three seasons and a contest 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or younger.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

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Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV


14/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/16 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/16 – French bred (including last 7 winners)
8/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/16 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
4/16 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/16 – Won by a German bred horse
3/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 7 winners
The last three winners have been owned by JP McManus

2019 Winner: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (J O’Brien) 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 140-rated MONTE CRISTO is sure to be popular with the Henderson yard having won 4 of the last 7 runnings This 4 year-old was last seen winning over in France but makes his British debut here today and we all know the Seven Barrows yard excel with these French imports. He’s got a 3 month break to overcome but with the stable in cracking order is expected to be fully wound up. Rowland Ward is another to consider after winning well at Kempton last time out – he can go well for the Stuart Edmunds yard and looks the main danger to the selection. Gerolamo Cardano and Galahad Quest look best of the rest.


13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV

16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
15/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018)
15/16 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
12/16 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
12/16 – Rated 128 or higher
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/16 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/16 – French bred
3/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/16 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/16 – Winning favourites (none in the last 10 runnings)

2019 Winner: KILDSART (B Pauling) 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Kim Bailey-trained Imperial Aura will be popular here after a solid second to Pym here over 3m back in December. The drop in trip looks a good move after not quite seeing out that trip last time and with that proven track form in the bag should go close. The Ben Pauling yard took this race 12 months ago, so if running their Gowiththeflow has to be respected with some decent recent form, while Simply The Betts and the hat-trick seeking CHAMPAGNE COURT have to be respected. The later was a good winner at Plumpton last time out and a 5lb rise for that success looks fair. More is needed in this better race, but he’s now 2-from-2 over fences and acts well on soft ground – there could be more to come. The Paul Nicholls-trained MERCY MERCY ME is the other one that stands out though after a smooth win at Sandown last time out. Prior to that he was around 4 lengths behind Champagne Court at Plumpton but has clearly progressed since then and being from the Paul Nicholls yard looks the sort to thrive now he’s got the winning habit over the bigger obstacles.

 

1.50 – Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
14/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
14/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/16 – Rated 130 or higher
13/16 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
9/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Won by the Hobbs yard

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (N Williams) 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This race produced a Festival winner 12 months ago in Siruh Du Lac so is certainly worth looking back on in a few months time. Count Meribel is sure to have his supporters, but does have a bit to answer based on recent runs and I’d prefer to see some old sparkle on the track again. Course and distance winner Warthog is another that’s been popular in the betting for this race all week and the Pipe yard have a good record in the race too. He was a gutsy winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here over this CD last month and is only up 4lbs for that. Spiritofthegames was second that day so has to enter the mix, while the likes of My Way and Highway One O One are others that can go well, if running. But we almost landed a nice touch with LALOR at nice odds (20/1) here on New Year’s Day so I’m sticking with him. Yes, he’s not going to be anywhere near that price this time, but the way he jumped and travelled through that last race was a sign that he’s back in love with the game after a baron spell. A 4lb rise makes life harder but with that run coming off a 2-month break then he should have some improvement to come and from his four runs at Cheltenham now has only been out of the frame once. Of the rest, the Hobbs team have won this race twice in the last 9 years for owner Diana Whateley and they team-up again here with the old-timer GARDE LA VICTOIRE (e/w), who is starting to look dangerously well-handicapped on old form and might just run better than his odds suggest.

 

2.25 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

16/16 – Officially rated 151 or higher
15/16 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (9 had won)
15/16 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
13/16 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/16 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, but all placed 8th or better)
11/16 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/16 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/16 – Priced 7/1 or less
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
7/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/16 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/16 – Favourites
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2019 Winner: FRODON (P Nicholls) 9/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another race that produced a Festival winner last year after Frodon landed the prize before going onto Ryanair Chase glory. The first thing to note ahead of this race is that it’s been a shocking one for the favourites in recent years – with no winning market leader winning in the last 16 years. This year, Santini and Bristol De Mai look likely to fight out the favourites berth. Santini was second in the RSA Chase here last March and with only 8 runs under rules still very lightly-raced. He’ll probably be pitched at the Gold Cup if running well here, but, for me, was hardly convincing at 1/3 on his return win at Sandown – winning by a head. Bristol De Mai is very useful on his day too, but as we all know he does seem to save his best for Haydock. He is, however, the top-rated in the field (170) and let’s not forget he was third in the Gold Cup last season here too – but with just 1 win from his last 8, he’s a horse that isn’t easy to catch right and has also been beaten in all three past runs at Cheltenham. De Rasher Counter was a nice winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) back in November but a lot more is needed now into graded company – he’s up 9lbs in the ratings. Top Ville Ben is good on his day too, but fell in the RSA Chase here last season. Course winner Mister Whitaker could run a big race at nice price and should be a lot fitter for a recent fifth here – but will need to prove he’s as good over this longer 3m 1 1/2 f trip. So, I’ll be taking a chance on the Colin Tizzard-trained SLATE HOUSE (e/w) here. He’s got a big to find on the ratings, but has returned this season better than ever with winning three of his four starts and it might have been 4-from-4 had he not fallen when going well in the BetVictor Gold Cup here in November. He’s got winning form at the track and seems to have improved again since being stepped up in trip the last twice (2 wins). Soft ground is also fine, while the Tizzard yard won this race back in 2009 with a horse called Joe Lively.

 

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

14/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
12/14 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
11/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
11/14 – Won their latest race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/14 – Priced 7/2 or less
8/14 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/14 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/14 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty

2019 Winner: BIRCHDALE (N Henderson) 2/1

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race the Nicky Henderson yard have won for the last two seasons so anything they run should be noted – at this stage they’ve only Time Flies By entered, who is a proven course winner. Harry Senior caught the eye when winning well at Chepstow last time out and the Skelton-trained Protektorat stuck his neck out well to get up to win a similar race here on New Year’s Day. Champagne Well is also a proven course winner after winning here in October and has since finished second here the last twice – he should be in the mix. King Roland was super impressive when winning last time out at Exeter and the time before was second to Son Of Camas at Newbury – but the form of that run has since taken a few knocks so we’ll have to see if he’s progressed further to compete in this much better race – there’s every chance he has! However, I’ll go back to the Henderson runner – TIME FLIES BYwho might be worth giving another chance too. The yard has won the last two runnings of this race and this 5 year-old is a proven course winner here. Yes, he ran a bit below-par on hurdles debut at Ascot last time but had excuses as lost a shoe that day. Back here at Cheltenham, where he’s run well twice before, looks a plus, while the step up in trip also looks a good move having looked as if he’s not quite got the pace for 2 miles.

 

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
13/15 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
12/15 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/15 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
8/15 – Won their latest race
7/15 – Favourites that won
6/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable

 

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 10/3

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Yet another race that produced a Festival winner last season after we saw the Emma Lavelle-trained PAISLEY PARK take the prize. He lines up again and will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Lady Rebecca (2000 & 2001). He returned with a hard-fought win at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle in November but will be fitter for it and is expected to take this before trying to defend his Stayers Hurdle title at the Festival in March. Having said that, he’s only rated 3lbs higher than If The Cap Fits, so might know he’s been in a race if this Harry Fry runner lines-up too. This 8 year-old was a nice winner at Ascot in November and showed he can cope with this 3m trip by winning the Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle at Aintree last season – this will, however, be his first ever run here at Cheltenham. L’Ami Serge and the back-to-form Summerville Boy, who won well here on New Year’s Day, can make a race of it too, while the consistent Tobefair rarely runs a bad race and could be the value to hit the frame. But, I’ll take the current Stayers’ champ to continue his winning run and make it 2-from-2 in this race and also win number seven on the bounce.

 

4.10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Soft 2m1f RacingTV


15/15 – Rated 120 or higher
14/15 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
11/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
8/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
10 of the last 11 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

2019 Winner: BENNY’S BRIDGE (F O’Brien) 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The consistent SOFIA’S ROCK gets the nod and looks the more reliable to run his race. This Dan Skelton runner has only been out of the top three once from his six runs over hurdles (2 wins) and should be spot-on for this after two runs this season. The Chris Gordon yard have won two of the last five runnings, so their – Shut The Box – might be worth a second look, while course winner – NORTHERN BEAU was a top winner over fences here last time and is back over hurdles off the same mark. If running, she could be interesting too. The unbeaten, We Run The Night, is another to note for the Ben Pauling yard.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/10 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/10 – Winning favourite
The last 8 winners were all aged 5 or 6 years-old

2019 Winner: NADAITAK (B Pauling) 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Boss Man Fred would be very popular if running after winning all three starts over hurdles – including a CD win here at Doncaster. RAMSES DE TEILEE is interesting back over hurdles too and has plenty of stamina to cope with these conditions. He’s had a few months off to freshen-up and having run well off a break many times before then this looks a good move by the Pipe yard. Of the rest, the Jamie Snowden runner – Thomas Macdonagh – has won it’s last three and is a horse on the up so can’t be dismissed either. I’ve also been impressed with the attitude of the Tim Vaughan-trained EVA’S OSKAR (e/w), who I know the yard like a fair bit. He’s won three of his last four, including last time out at Chepstow. He’s up 7lbs for that and is now 18lbs higher than the start of the season, but acts on the ground and could have more to come.

 

2.40 – Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Had won over this trip before
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Winning favourites

2019 Winner: LADY BUTTONS (P Kirby) Evs fav

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Floressa represents the in-form Nicky Henderson yard that also have a 31% record with their hurdlers at the track. She’s won two of her 3 starts over hurdles and looks to have a big say. Irish Roe is another to note and is a proven CD winner here, plus Miranda, for Paul Nicholls and Litterale Ci enter the mix too. However, it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner of the race – LADY BUTTONS. She has won two of her three starts this season and is equally as good over fences or hurdles. It won’t be easy giving away 4lbs to Floressa as that puts then on the same mark effectively based on the ratings but her proven form in his race just give the edge to this strong-travelling Philip Kirby mare.

 

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

13/14 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/14 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/14 – Aged 9 or younger
11/14 – Officially rated 130 or higher
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 13 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 13 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2019 Winner: GO CONQUER (N Twiston-Davies) 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Having trained two of the last four winners of this race then trainer Alan King is always a yard to follow. He’s got another big-looking hand this year too with Good Man Pat, Azzerti and DINGO DOLLAR in the race and both have been popular in the betting all week. The former was last seen running 5th at Ascot over 3m on heavy ground so the concern, for me, would be his stamina. With that in mind Dingo Dollar looks the more reliable of the pair having run sixth in this race last year but gets in this time rated 2lbs lower. He’s still only 8 years-old and has returned this season with a decent 5th in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy). He’s been kept fresh for this, with no runs since and with another year to strengthen-up I think he can run a solid race – Tom Cannon rides. Trainer Sue Smith won this in 2018 and tries again – this time with Ravenhill Road, who is another course winner in the field and heads here off the back of a good win at Haydock last time out. Joint top-weight Ok Corral will have its supporters for the Nicky Henderson yard, but he’s been very poor so far this season so would need to recapture his old form to figure. Henderson also has Burbank in the race and having won well at Newbury last time can go well – but is 11lbs higher this time! The consistent Fingerontheswitch has been running well this season too, but with 12 of the last 14 winners aged 9 or younger, then this 10 year-old is overlooked. Chidswell (11), Ok Corral(10), Calipto (10) and Monbeg River (11) are the other old-timers the race. Cobra De Mai, Solomon Grey and Quarenta are others that cases can be made for, but the other Alan King runner – GOOD MAN PAT (e/w) – could represent some value. This 7 year-old has the useful Alex Thorne riding and claiming 7lbs and looks the sort to do better now upped in trip again. He ran well over this trip in November but is 3lbs lower this time and also have the jockey claiming 7lbs so is 10lbs better off. Soft ground is fine too and with just 7 runs over fences and age on his side might have more to offer.

 

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