Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 23rd Feb 2019

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends

We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.

The 888Sport Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby – a race that Gracious John took 12 months ago.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – 888Sport Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

12/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/14 – French (8) of Irish (3) bred
11/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10)
9/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 6/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Good Man Pat was a decent winner last time out at Plumpton for the Alan King yard, but this is a step up in grade so even though a good run is expected, more is needed. Castafiore, who heads here on a three-timer, is another to consider and the Longsdon yard also won this in 2016. However, it’s hard to get away from the good record of the Paul Nicholls yard in the race – they’ve won the prize a staggering 10 times in the last 14 runnings, including three of the last four. They clearly mean business again with three midweek entries – Amour De Nuit, Capeland and Secret Investor. However, SECRET INVESTOR, who is also a prove course winner, is the only one that’s made the final line-up, so the hint should be taken. He was a fine second to Ok Corral at Warwick last time out and even though he was beaten 9 lengths by Bags Groove at Wincanton in November, the Nicholls horse does have a 5lb pull in the weights this time. We know Secret Investor also stays further than this 2m4f trip (won here over 3m) so we can expect connections to make full use of that stamina.

 

 

2.25 – 888Sport Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 –  Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
12/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/15– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
9/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – French bred
5/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Trained by Alan King (won the last two runnings)
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here but this is another race that has some very good stable stats attached to it. The Alan King and Paul Nicholls yards are the ones in question – between them, they won six of the last 10 runnings. Both have been heavily represented earlier in the week so their final entries have clearly been well thought of and should be on your radar. Until we know the definitive runners the King camp have Praeceps and Giving Glances, while Nicholls has Deadline Diva, Red Force One and Ecco. You can’t rules out the Henderson runner – Fusil Raffles – who has done little wrong from two races and if running the Tom Symonds runner Song For Someone is respected too. Of the Nicholls runners, Deadline Diva gets in with just 10-5 to carry but with Harry Cobden riding the hurdles debutant ECCO for the yard, then this one gets the nod. A useful flat performer in Germany that contested Group One and Two’s over there. Hurdling has to be taken on trust but we can expect Nicholls to have put him through his paces.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

12/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – French bred
4/13 – Trained by Alan King
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This is another race the Alan King yard have done well in over the years, with wins in 2009, 2012 and 2016, so their runner Scarlet Dragon is a good place to start. This 6 year-old is a 100+ rated flat performer that has made a good transition to hurdles – winning once from three runs. The form of his recent Huntingdon win has since been franked with the runner-up winning in midweek so there could be a lot more to come. Itchy Feet and Rouge Vif are others that have done well this season and represent the same owners. They are both rated 142 so there is nothing between them, but with Itchy Feet a proven course and distance winner then he might just edge it. However, the call here is to stick with the promising ANGELS BREATH, from the Nicky Henderson yard that have won this race three times since 2013. This 5 year-old is lightly-raced (just one run over hurdles) so connections are trying to get more race time into him before Cheltenham. He did, however, hose-up on his sole hurdles run at Ascot back in December and it’s no secret the yard thinks a lot of him. He’s already one of the main runners in the ante-post betting for the Supreme and Ballymore Novices’ Hurdles so a win here will see his support for those engagements hot-up.

 

3.35 – 888Sport Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

14/16 – Rated 139 or higher
14/16 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
12/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/16 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Rated between 139 and 150
8/16 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
5/16 – French bred
4/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Trained by Tom George
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/16 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
2/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Alan King-trained TALKISCHEAP gets a thumbs-up for most of the key trends and this 7 year-old is yet to finish out of the top three from his four chase starts. His recent runner-up effort to the useful On The Blind Side over this course and distance last month reads well, and earlier this season has also put in good performances behind the classy La Bague Au Roi – form that has been bolstered since. He’ll be looking to provide trainer Alan King is first success in the race and looks sure to go close. The other horse that catches the eye is the Tom George-trained DOUBLE SHUFFLE. The stable has a decent record in the race with wins in 2009 and 2012, while don’t forget this 9 year-old was second in the 2017 King George VI Chase here – beaten just a length behind Might Bite. Yes, he’s a horse that doesn’t win that often – just 2 chase wins from 19 – but he’s been placed in the top three on 10 occasions over fences and certainly wasn’t disgraced when running fifth in this season’s King George. He was 31 lengths off the winner – Clan Des Obeaux – that day, but the Nicholls horse has since given that form a huge boost by winning the Denman Chase easily last weekend. Double Shuffle is now back into a handicap and the assessor has given him a squeak off a rating of 154. We know he loves the track too – his form figures here read 1-2-2-5 – plus he was also runner-up in this race in 2017. With 14 of the last 16 winners rated 139, or higher, then this is a negative for the well-fancied Glen Rocco. Yes, this 8 year-old has improved a lot this season and is also a CD winner at the track, but this will be his biggest test to date and he’s certainly no value in the betting. Nicholls can seemingly do no wrong on Saturdays at the moment so his Adrien Du Pont is another punters are sure to latch onto, while Nicholls also has Modus in the race – both tick the main weight and age stats so can’t be ruled out. The same can be said for the sole Henderson runner – Rather Be – but after rising up the ranks last season his progress has halted a bit so needs to bounce back.

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.40 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

15/15 – Had won over at least 3m before
13/15 – Aged 10 or younger
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
12/15 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 – Irish-bred
11/15 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Officially rated between 131-140
9/15 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/15 – Placed favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/15 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several key trends to take notice of here – notably that 13 of the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger, while 9 of the last 15 successful horses were actually aged 8 or 9. 12 of the last 15 also carried 11st or more so despite the gruelling test this race often goes to one of the higher-rated horses in the race. We’ve also only seen two winning favourites in the last 15 years, but the market leaders still run well – 8 of the last 15 have been placed, while 11 of the last 15 winners came from the first four in the betting. Last year’s winner, Baywing, will be hoping to become the first back-to-back winner since the 1960’s and if he is to win again, he’ll need to do so rated 7lbs higher. Trainer Paul Nicholls has never won the race but in VICTENTE (e/w) he looks to hold a fair chance. This former Scottish Grand National winner is back to the mark that saw him land that stamina-sapping Ayr race in 2017. He’ll like the drying ground and a recent third at Taunton will have him spot-on for this. WEST OF THE EDGE (e/w) was runner-up in the race 12 months and despite now an 11 year-old is also 3lbs lower this time – he can go well with just 10st 3lbs to carry and William Kennedy booked to ride. Mysteree won the race in 2017, but has rather lost his way since and is hard to get excited about. Ange Des Malberaux is an improving stayer from the Dan Skelton yard that deserves to take the chance in this better race – with only 10st 5lbs he could be dangerous. The Pipe-trained Daklondike is another to note, but has failed to complete in three of his last four. Finally, JP McManus has two in the race – Kimberlite Candy and Rock On Fruity – both are proven course winners and head here off the back of good runs so are sure to have their supporters too.

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

11/12 – Rated 96+
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/12 – Had raced at Lingfield before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Placed favs
8/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/12 – US bred
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Mare winners
3/12 – Trained by David Barron
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
Gracious John won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Encore D’Or, who is rated 109, and Corinthia Knight (107) set the standard based on the official ratings and are sure to be popular with punters. Both are proven course and distance winners and certainly have the form to go well. Of the pair, Encore D’Or, who was a close second in the race last year, looks the more reliable and heads here having beaten Ornate a neck at Newcastle last time out, but with the runner-up rated 14lbs inferior to Encore D’Or then the form of that win is a tad questionable. Gorgeous Noora is another course winner and being a filly gets a handy 5lbs from the others – that should see here in the mix too. Royal Birth is a past winner of the race (2017) so can’t be dismissed either, but we’ve also got the current champ in the line-up GRACIOUS JOHN (e/w). This 6 year-old was a narrow winner last year and has clearly had this as a target for some time. His record over 5f here at also Lingfield reads well 1-6-1-1-1-2, with four successes from six tries over the minimum distance at the track.

 

3.15 – Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Had run at Lingfield previously
12/16 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
12/16 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/16 – Winning distance – less than a length
10/16 – Placed in their last race
10/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the market
10/16 – Won at Lingfield previously
10/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Won at least 6 times previously
7/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the 16 renewals is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It will be a shock if the John Gosden yard are not winning the Winter Derby for the first time here with their 117-rated WISSAHICKON. This 4 year-old has a fair bit in-hand on the official ratings and has already beaten some of his rivals in recent wins over this course and distance. Frankie continues in the saddle and the pocket Italian also has a decent 40% strike-rate when riding 4+ year-olds at the track. Of the rest, last year’s winner – Master The World – can’t be totally ruled out but is still rated 10lbs lower than the selection – he’ll be looking to become the first ever back-to-back winner of the race. While Big Country has finished runner-up to the Gosden horse the last twice so is another for the each-way hunters and finally it’s worth pointing out that Gosden also has Court House, who is certainly no back-number based on what we’ve seen, so could easily end up with a 1-2 in the race!

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