More LIVE ITV Racing to take in this Saturday as the cameras are at Sandown, Wetherby and Musselburgh to show seven races across the three meetings. At Sandown the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase is their feature – a contest the classy that jockey Daryl Jacob has won 4 times in the last 5 runnings, plus a contest that we’ve seen 10 of the last 16 favourites win.
Up at Wetherby we’ve the Towton Novices’ Chase to enjoy – a race that 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old, while up in Scotland it’s Scottish County Hurdle day at Musselburgh – 6 year-olds have won 9 of the last 12 renewals.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Betway Casino Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y RTV
13/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
13/13 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or younger
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/13 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
6/13 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
5/13 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/13 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/13 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/13 – Aged 7 years-old
5/13 – French bred
4/13 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/13 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
JUICESTORM VERDICT: We’ve got last year’s winner of the race – Dolos – going again, but after a poor showing here last time out (7th of 8) needs to bounce back and with 12 of the last 13 winners having finished in the top three last time out also falls down on this trend. With that in mind, one that ticks a lot of the main trends is DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL. This 7 year-old was a close second last time out here to The Locker Room, but with the more experienced Daryl Jacob taking over in the saddle he’s expected to be in the thick of things again and a track his form reads 1-2. Caid du Lin, First Flow and Joke Dancer are other possibles to note, while the 11 year-old Diakali is coming back from a 401-day break.
1.50 – Betway Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/9 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – French bred
6/9 – Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Rated 161 or higher
6/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls yard last won this in 2016 so will be trying again – this time with Quel Destin. However, this 5 year-old is rated 10lbs inferior to the Henderson runner – CALL ME LORD – and is only getting 3lbs from that horse. With Henderson having a top record in this race too – has won it 6 times in the last 9 years – then it’s hard to see past his entry here. Call Me Lord is a proven CD winner and although he’s not quite gone onto the heights many though he would, he’s still a top class hurdler at this level. He backed that up with another nice win last time out over Ballyandy at Cheltenham and that form has since been given a shot in the arm too with the runner-up winning since. If running,Eldorado Allen can do best of the rest.
2.25 – Betway Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV
16/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/16 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – French bred
6/16 – Aged 7 years-old
6/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 5 winners)
4/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been another good race for the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards – they’ve won 9 of the last 16 runnings between them. At this stage Nicholls has Grand Sancy entered, while Henderson has Champagne Platinum. The Willie Mullins-trained Laurina could also line-up and if she does make the trip over from Ireland will be a big player getting the mares’ allowance from the others. However, she was pulled-up last time out at Leopardstown after jumping badly and breaking a blood vessel in the process, so there is a certain amount of risk attached to backing her – albeit on her day she’s a class act and has also won over hurdles here at Sandown. Midnight Shadow was a useful hurdler that has made a good transition to fences so has to enter the mix. While Good Boy Bobby was a close second to Mister Fisher last time out and with that horse winning again since suggest the form is solid – he looks sure to have a say too. But the call is ITCHY FEET (e/w) to remain unbeaten over fences. Last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle third was an easy winner on his chase debut at Leicester last month and that experience would have taught him a lot. He was a useful hurdler that could turn into a better chaser.
3.00 – Betway Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV
14/14 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/14 – Officially rated 135 or lower
11/14 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
10/14 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/14 – Priced 13/2 or less
9/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
9/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Favourites placed
5/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/14 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/14 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Topweight –AGRAPART (e/w) – will love the heavy ground but it won’t be easy carrying 11-12 in it. On a plus, Chester Williams takes off 5lbs from his back and he should find this drop back into handicap company a lot easier than the graded races he’s been running in of late – he looks interesting, despite his big weight. Bold Plan needs to bounce back from an early fall at Ascot last time out, but was sent off favourite that day in a decent handicap hurdle so has to be respected. Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 14 runnings so his Dan McGrue is another to consider, but with wins in 2011 and 2016 the Philip Hobs team are another that like to target this race – they run BIG SHARK (e/w). This 6 year-old gets in here with only 10-13 in weight and wasn’t disgraced on handicap debut at Haydock (2nd) last time out. He acts with give underfoot and should have a lot more to come with just three career runs. Ask Dillon and Ask Ben are others that can make their presence felt, while Golan Fortune was a nice winner last time out at Cheltenham and was second in this race in 2018 – he can go well too.
3.35 – Betway Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less
14/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
11/16 – Rated 136 or lower
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Irish-bred
8/16 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
7/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – French-bred
3/16 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/16 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 6)
JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners aged 9 or younger, plus 11 of the last 16 rated 136 or lower, then these are two good stats to apply. With that taken into account the Philip Hobbs runner – DEISE ABA (e/w) – looks interesting. This 7 year-old was an easy 17 length winner at Catterick last time out at odds-on and despite this being harder is rated just 135 here and looks set to get in with a nice weight. That was only his third run over fences too so should have more to offer and acted well in soft ground before. There are plenty others to consider – like Le Rocher and Cloudy Glen, who represents the Venetia Williams yard that have a good record in the race. But the other of interest is last year’s winner – CLASSIC BEN. This 7 year-old still has a lot of time on his side to get better and warmed-up nicely for this with a solid third at Haydock last time out in The Last Fling Chase. He’s a pound lower for that run and the drop back from 3m4f to 3m here will be a plus after running out of petrol over that marathon trip last time.
Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.45 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
11/14 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Newtide looks to have a future over fences after a smooth debut win at Ffos Las back in November and with the Kim Bailey yard having a 43% record with their chasers at the track that’s a useful return. Chapel Stile showed a lot of guts to win well at Carlisle last time out and is another to consider. But I’ve been quite impressed with the way BOLDMERE has been progressing over fences and the way he’s won his last two at Leicester and Doncaster. He beat a fair sort in Bob Mahler by 10 lengths last time out at his first try over 3m and despite a few sketchy jumping errors looks the sort to have more to some. James Bowen, who has won on him before, returns to the saddle and can hopefully guide him home again. Of the rest, the improving Dominateur will also be popular having won four of his last five starts but is up another 8lbs here from last time and this is also a step up in grade – can go well, but more needed.
Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 – bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4
11/12 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
9/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Former flat horses
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/12 – Rated between 120-130
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The way Sir Chauvelin kept on that day was eye-catching and he’s also got history in this race after running fourth in this contest in 2018 – another bold bid looks on the cards. Of the rest, with just 10-5 in weight Ashington is sure to have its supporters too being that he’s a proven CD winner too – but does have 3 ¾ lengths to make up on Sir Chauvelin based on their run here on New Year’s Day. Miranda represents the Paul Nicholls yard so will attract interest and heads here having won last time out. Sebastopol is another that can go well, while of those at bigger prices the consistent Seaborough can’t be ruled out with a light weight.
3.15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4
Only two previous runnings
2/2 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/2 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
0/2 – Winning favourites
Trainer Sandy Thompson won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 60% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thompson has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Full Jack won the race in 2018
Dancing Shadow (6/1) won the race in 2017
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course winner, Wonderful Charm, is a good place to start and being from the Paul Nicholls yard then he’ll have his backers. CHIC NAME (e/w) has been running well over the Cross-Country course at Cheltenham recently and could be on a nice mark. He’s won over 3m6f in the past so this 4m trip should be within range and has been freshened up with almost 2 months off. Of the rest, Brian Boranha will have Brian Hughes riding and was in the process of running well when falling at the last at Catterick last time out. The horse that won that race – Little Bruce – is also going here and looks a useful stayer in the making. He had Sumkindofking 3 lengths back that day but has been raised 6lbs for that run so will need to take another step forward. BOB MAHLER and Some Chaos are others to respect if making the final line-up – especially the first-named if Boldmere runs well at Wetherby in the 2.45 today – was a fair second to that horse last time out at Donny.
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