Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 20th July 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

Another decent Saturday for horse racing fans to look forward to this weekend (20th July 19) with seven more LIVE contests spread over three tracks. We’ve something for everyone too with summer jumping from Market Rasen – the Summer Hurdle and Summer Plate are their feature contests, while Newmarket and Newbury are the other flagship venues this weekend.

Plenty to look forward to and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats for all the LIVE races – use these to help whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy! 


Saturday 20th July 2019

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Ric And Mary Hambro Aphrodite Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV3

14/15 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Winning favourite
5/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
Worth Waiting (4/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the John Gosden yard in the past and with two in the race the safe call looks to stich with him again. He runs the unbeaten KESIA, who won well on debut at Ascot. Yes, this is a step-up but she would have learned a lot from that run and with that outing also coming 2 ½ months ago there is every chance she’s progressed physically too. The other Gosden runner is Sparkle Roll and being rated 106 already has some top form to her name. She was third in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last time so the group in class here makes her very dangerous too and certainly can’t be ruled out. However, with Kesia having already won over this 1m4f trip and Sparkle Roll not having tasted success over the distance, I’m happy to take a chance on the lighter-raced of the Gosden runners. Of the rest, Love So Deep, Magnolia Springs, Dance Legend and Four White Socks are others to note.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered as The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV3

10/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
8/14 – Had run at the track before
9/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Had won a Group race before
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 9 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Fox Chairman is the top-rated in the field and being a 3 year-old also gets a handy 9lbs off the older horses. He’s a course winner that was a fine second in the Hampton Court Stakes last time out and on that form is the one to beat. Pondus was down the field (6th) in the King Edward VII Stakes last time, but clearly didn’t stay the 1m4f trip that day so the drop back to 1m2f is a plus. Set Piece and Dolphin Vista are others to consider, but I’m happy to side with Godolphin’s FIRST NATION here. The boys in blue have a top record in this race and even though it won’t be easy giving 9lbs to Fox Chairman, he comes here in form after a solid third at Sandown last time. That was a sign that he’s returning to form and unlike the favourite is a proven winner over this trip.

2.25 – Marsh Cup Cl2 (3yo+) 2m ½f ITV3

Just one previous  running
Sir Michael Stoute has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Mick Channon is just 1 from 31 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Stratum (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the one past running. Last year’s winning owner – Tony Bloom – tries again, this time with the 6 year-old Withhold, who is returning from a wind op. He’s gone well fresh in the past too and looks to have this race as a firm target for a while – he’s hard to ignore. This is the sort of race the Mark Johnston yard love to target too so it’s no surprise to see them with two runners – Lucky Deal and Making Miracles – both look to have decent each-way chances too. Of the pair MAKING MIRACLES (e/w) might be worth an interest though. He wasn’t beaten far in the Northumberland Plate last time and is a pound lower. SDS takes over in the saddle and the return to grass is a plus for this season’s Chester Cup hero. The Grand Visir was a good winner at Ascot last time over 2m4f so his proven stamina is a plus, while Northumberland Plate winner – Who Dares Wins – should not be far away. The consistent Coeur De Lion and Proschema are others that can go well, but it’s hard to not be taken by the progress made this season by the Charlie Fellowes CARNWENNAN. This 4 year-old took another step forward last time at Newcastle to win the Vase consolation race and a 7lb hike in the ratings looks fair. The return to the turf is fine and he’ll love the long Newbury straight – there should be more to come from this improving stayer.

3.00 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y ITV3

14/15 – Won over 6f before
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/15 – Had won a Group race before
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winners from stall 8
2/15 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 4)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The classy sprinter – The Tin Man – won this prize back in 2016 and I think he can do so again. He’s the clear top-rated in the field and should find this big ease in grade more to his liking than the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time out. He was still only beaten 4 ½ lengths that day and with this only his third run of the season will be starting to hit peak form. Expect a late burst, but with several other quick rivals in the field then the race should be set up perfectly for him – Oisin Murphy rides. Snazzy Jazzy, who won at Salisbury last time, can go well too, while the only other CD winner in the field – Khaadem – is another to respect. Of those at bigger prices. Donjuan Triumphant and the unexposed Oxted, should be noted in the betting, plus Andrea Atzeni catches the eye being booked for the German raider WALDPFAD (e/w), so a small each-way interest on this in-form spriner might not be the worst shout in the world either.


3.40 – Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y ITV3

14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
10/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/15 – Won by a Feb or March foal
8/15 – Irish bred winners
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Won by a filly
6/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/15 – Winners from stall 1
4/15 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A big pot up for grabs for these 2 year-olds. Always a tricky race to get involved in, but this year might have an easier feel to it – despite 20+ runners. Why? Well, the 107-rated Richard Fahey runner – VENTURA REBEL – hails from a yard that love to target this race and also sets a fair standard already. He was a close second in the Group Two Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and prior to that won his opening two races. Any rain is fine and if the ratings are anything to go by looks to have a fair bit in-hand. Never In Paris and Emten, who was fifth in the Norfolk Stakes, are others to consider, plus Richard Fahey also runs Show Me Show Me, Baileys In Bloom & Mighty Spirit. However, the other yard that love having winners in this race is the Hannon camp. They’ve another army heading to post and despite them all having a bit to find with the selection it would be foolish to rule them out as these 2 year-olds can improve a lot at this early stage of their careers – Hannon runs – Bacchalot, Ocasio Cortez, Audio and SEPARATE (e/w). Of that bunch, the last-named might be worth a small saver with Atzeni catching the eye in the saddle.

 

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.10 – Betway Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV3

14/17 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
13/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/17 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/17 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 12 winners carried 11-5 or less
8 of the last 13 winners carried 11-0 or less
8 of the last 13 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
L’Inganno Felice (8/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: I know he’s the likely favourite, but I’ve been really impressed with the way the Dan Skelton-trained LONGHOUSE SALE has been winning of late so I’m sticking with him. This 5 year-old is 3-from-3 over hurdles and looks a horse with a big future. Add in he’s a course winner too, then we know the track suits and the yard won this prize in 2016 too. I’ll take him to continue his upward curve, albeit in this better race. St Gallen looks his biggest danger with Richard Johnson riding. This 6 year-old has done nothing wrong in winning his last two race as well and is a proven CD winner. Chef De Troupe represents the Dr Richard Newland yard that won this in 2015, but of those at bigger prices DINO VELVET (e/w) and JOHN CONSTABLE (e/w) can go well too. Both are proven CD winners here too and despite needing to bounce back from average recent runs, certainly have the form to go well if they bring their a-game to the table.

 

3.20 – Betway Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y ITV3

17/17 – Had run within the last 3 months
15/17 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
15/17 – Aged 7 or older
13/17 – Had won 2 or more chases before
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Had run at Market Rasen before
10/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/17 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/17 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 8)
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
More Buck’s won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Skelton camp also have a good chance in the tracks other feature race with Gortroe Joe, but it’s hard to falter the record of trainer Peter Bowen in this race. He’s won it 5 times in the last 17 years. At this stage he’s got Henryville, Lord Byran, Beggar’s Wishes and MORE BUCK’S (e/w) entered and if running all should be respected. However, with More Buck’s winning the race last year, he’s a horse that knows what’s needed and should be spot-on after a pipe-opener at the track a few weeks ago. He’s only 6lbs higher than last year’s win, but has since won off this mark too. It’s also good to see the Henderson yard supporting the race – they’ve some live chances too, with Pacific De Baune and Casablanca Minx – both were good winners last time out and coming from this powerful yard are sure to be well-supported. Ronava is in great form – winning 3 of it’s last 4 – too and despite his age (11) is another to consider, but the other of interest is SOLAR IMPULSE (e/w). This 9 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and heads here in top order after a string of firsts and seconds (last 5 runs). Off a mark of 129, he’s still very well handicapped – having been rated in the late 140’s when with Paul Nicholls. He’s a former winner of the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that has finished in the top three in 17 of his 32 runs over fences. The Ian Williams team have clearly got his appetite for racing back and with a light weight he could be dangerous.

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