Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 18th Jan 2020

Free horse racing tips and trends

We’ve seven more LIVE races this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at both Ascot and Haydock. The Grade One Clarence House Chase is the main event at Ascot as the Willie Mullins-trained In De Sceaux bids to win the race for a fourth year in a row. Did you know 15 of the last 17 Clarence House Chase winners came from the top three in the market?

Over at Haydock we’ve three more LIVE races to take in that include the Peter Marsh Chase – a race that 15 of the last 16 winners have won carrying 11-3 or less in weight. We’ve also got the Champion Hurdle Trial, as race named in honour of The New One, who won this prize many times in the past.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!

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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

10/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/10 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
9/10 – From the top 4 in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/10 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
7/10 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (3) in their last race
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Won their last race
6/10 – Winning Favourites
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/10 – Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/10 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Magic Light (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Oliver Sherwood-trained Papagana will be popular here having won well on her first run of the season at Kempton and then wasn’t disgraced in finishing third to the useful The Worlds End in a Grade One at Ascot last month. However, I’m preferring to stick with last year’s winner of this race – MAGIC OF LIGHT. This Irish raider will be well known for also finishing second in the Grand National last season and has returned this term better than ever with an easy win at Newbury. Stamina is assured and she loves the soft/heavy ground. We know the track also suits and despite having to give 2lbs away to the Sherwood horse is officially rated 3lbs higher anyway so does have a tiny bit in-hand. Of the rest, course winner – Sensulano – is respected, while if running Culture De Sivola and Western Victory are others with form that would see then go well.


2.25 –
Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/12 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – French bred
6/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/12 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
5/12 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/12 – Trained by David Pipe
3/12 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/12 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/12 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/12 – Favourites (1 co)
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some familiar faces in here, including last year’s winner – Ballymoy – who should go well again off only a 2lbs higher mark. However, the Twiston-Davies runner hasn’t won since (5 runs) and has got a habit of finding one too good this season with three seconds on the spin. The Henderson team were mob-handed with William Henry, SOUL EMOTION and Colonial Dreams all entered earlier in the week, but have just the one runner now – Soul Emotion. He was a fine third at Newbury last time out and with that only being his second run of the season looks to be getting better with each race this term. The slightly shorter trip will help and he ran well behind Paisley Park at the track back in December 18. The Harry Fry yard have a cracking 31% record with their hurdlers here, so if their old-timer past course winner – Jolly’s Cracked It – could be dangerous, especially off a low weight. Bold Plan and Thomas Darby are others to consider, but having won this in 2014 then trainer Paul Nicholls’ PIC D’ORHY is the other pick. This 5 year-old ran 10th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and was running well in France last time when falling at the seventh hurdle. Soft ground is fine based on his French form and at just 5 years-old looks a horse with a lot more to come and could be well-treated off a mark of 146.

 

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

13/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Either French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/13 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Aged 8 or younger
6/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winning distance  – 6 lengths or further
5/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It was hard to not be taken by the ease of ESPOIR DE GUYE’s win here last month. Yes, that came over 2 furlongs shorter and he’s also been hiked up a massive 14lbs in the ratings but this Venetia Williams runner looks a fast-improving chaser. He relished the soft/heavy ground last time and the extra yardage looks within range. The manner of that win suggests the 14lb rise – albeit a lot – could be taken in his stride and certainly deserves his place in the field. The consistent Happy Diva is sure to run it’s race too and should be involved, while Highway One O One has been running well this season in similar races to suggest a solid run is on the cards for him too. Course and distance winner – Kidisart – is another to keep an eye on in the betting, while with low weights Springtown Lake and Sam’s Adventure would be interesting if running.

 

3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
10/17 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets, 2019 Altior)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (29 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
Un De Sceaux has won the race in 2016, 2017 and 2018

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 10/3

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A fascinating match-up here that really should revolve around the three-time winner of this race – UN DE SCEAUX and the rapidly improving Defi Du Seuil. The pair were separated by just a neck in the Tingle Creek at Sandown last month so based on that run we look set for another cracker. Defi looks set to go off favourite and another good run here will determine if connections opt for the Champion Chase or the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – although they’ve already said they are likely to live him in both right up till the last minute. It will take a good performance to beat Defi, but I just feel that with only a neck between them the value sits with UN DE SCEAUX. He’s a proven winner of this race – well three-time winner actually, while Defi has only run at Ascot once (hurdles) and was a well-beaten 10/11 fav that day. Therefore, he’s a bit to answer re the track, but, in contrast, the Mullins horse seems to love it here – his form reads 2-from-2 as the 2017 renewal of this race that he won was staged at Cheltenham. Soft/heavy ground is a plus and despite his advancing years (is 12 now) the reports from the Mullins yard is that he’s still showing his sparkle and that was backed up with a second in the Tingle Creek – a race that also came off a 221 day break so can also be expected to have improved for it. Of the rest, Janika looks best of the rest and can pick up the pieces if the main two both have an off day.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

13/13 – Aged 7 or younger
13/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Aged 5 years-old
7/13 – Winning Favourites
6/13 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/13 –  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/13 – French bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/13 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Three promising novices on show here. Thebannerkingrebel is one of those and has now won three of his four starts over hurdles and it probably would have been 4-from-4 had he not fallen late on two runs ago at Wetherby. He’ll require another step forward here, but I know the Jamie Snowden yard think a lot of him and being a proven CD winner at the track then this is a big plus. But this will be his biggest test to date, and it won’t be easy having to give 5lbs away to the Alan King runner – EDWARDSTONE – who has gone into many a notebook after wins at Wincanton and Aintree. The form of his beating of Harry Senior last time at Aintree has been boosted since and looks the sort to have more to come. The heavy ground is a slight unknown, but you feel connections wouldn’t be risking him on it if they didn’t think it would suit. Stolen Silver looks best of the other two, with Snookered seemingly having a bit to find based on what we saw from him last time.

 

2.40 – Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

16/16 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
15/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/16 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
11/16 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Won at Haydock previously
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/16 – Favourites unplaced
9/16 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/16 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/16 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/16 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/16 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/16 – Trained by Sue Smith
3/16 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/16 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/16 – Won their last race
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Stamina will be the order of the day here in these conditions and over this 3m1f trip. Jockey Sean Bowen has a 45% record when riding over fences here so his mount – Acting Lass – is a good place to start. This Harry Fry runner was a gallant second to Regal Encore at Ascot last time out, but – for me – looked to have a hard race that day in what was a gruelling battle up the home straight, so it remains to be seen if that’s taken it’s toll. Prime Venture looks interesting off a low weight and with a 7lb claimer on too – that will help in the ground. The 11 year-old Definitly Red brings a bit of class to the race and is certainly well-handicapped on old form. But he’s not getting any younger and hasn’t sparkled in two runs so far this season. Champers On Ice has bounced back to form this season and has to enter the mix but I’d just worry that he’s run here twice now and been well beaten both times. Claud And Goldie and Geronimo were both good winners last time out and have a squeak, but would need a bit more – so the two I like here are VINTAGE CLOUDS and MIDNIGHT TUNE. The former hails from the Sue Smith yard that have won this race 4 times in the last 16 runnings. He’s a prove CD winner and looks to be coming to the boil after a fine third here last time to the improving Lord Du Mesnil. He’s 2lbs lower but more importantly will have a lot less weight to carry here – 15lbs less – with Definitly Red bringing the weights down for a lot of these. Then Midnight Tune heads here having won her last two in good fashion and a 5lb rise looks fair. He loves the heavy ground and is proven over trips ranging from 2m to 3m. With only 5 runs over fences also has scope for improvement, while is another that gets in with a light weight (10st 4lbs).

 

3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
14/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
12/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/14 –  From the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/14 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
11/14 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/14 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
10/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time out
8/14 – Aged 7 or younger
8/14 – Winning Favourites
4/14 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/14 – Won their last race
1/14 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With the race named after the four-time winner of this prize – The New One – then his trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, would love to collect again – he runs BALLYANDY. This consistent 9 year-old showed he’s better than ever by running leading Champion Hurdle hope – Epatante – to 8 lengths at Kempton on Boxing Day and prior to that was only a neck behind Call Me Lord at Cheltenham. That was off level weights, but Ballyandy gets a handy 6lbs off the Henderson horse this time and that should hopefully swing things in his favour if both line-up. Cornerstone Lad caused one of the shocks of the season when beating Buveur D’Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle last time out, so we’ll have to see if he can back that up. He likes to front run so that is likely to be the case again here and is also a proven CD winner at the track. Heavy ground is fine too and at the age of just 6 years-old there is every chance that he’s still improving at that last run was his true showing. You feel that if he was trained by Henderson, Mullins or Nicholls then he’d be taken a lot more seriously – hopefully the Micky Hammond yard can make a name for themselves in this division and have a live Champion Hurdle prospect come March – we’ll see. However, the one horse that they all might have to beat is last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner – Pentland Hills. This 5 year-old however, is on a recovery mission after flopping on his return at Cheltenham last month – with Ballyandy and Call Me Lord both finishing ahead of him. You feel that run would have brought him on a lot, but I’d still like to see it on the track again first and at the likely short odds he certainly doesn’t look great value. The final runner is the Joseph O’Brien-trained Darasso, who is certainly no back number either. This 7 year-old has won it’s last two in good fashion – the last being a Grade Two chase at Navan. He’s clearly had a few issues since – hence the 306 day break – but you’d like to think the yard won’t be sending him over unless they are happy with him and based on that certainly can’t be ruled out.

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