Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 16th June 2018

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends

We Head to Chester, York and Sandown this Saturday……….

Okay, it’s probably not a Saturday most horse racing fans circle as a ‘must-see’ weekend but that’s often the case when there is a huge meeting just around the corner. Yes, Royal Ascot gets going next Tuesday so we’ve plenty to look forward to there, however, before that we’ve still got seven LIVE ITV races to take in this weekend across three venues.

Chester, York and Sandown are the tracks hosting the ITV cameras and with a couple of Listed races, plus several competitive handicaps there’s still plenty to get stuck into.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get going!

 

Saturday 16th June 2018

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.05 – Randox Health Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

13/13 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
11/13 – Had won over 5f before
11/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
8/13 – Had won at least 3 times before
8/13 – Came from stall 7 or higher
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/13 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/13 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/13 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2
Trainer Stuart Kittow has 40% strike-rate (2 from 5) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon has just 2 from 29 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Adam Kirby is just 3 from 47 riding 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The classy Battaash burst onto the scene to land this race 12 months ago but looking at this year’s runners I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything that goes onto be as good as him, or troubling him in the coming months. Still a tight little Listed contest though and based on the ratings this should be fought out between Haddaf, Koditime, Mokaatil and Sound And Silence. The last-named is the highest rated in the field at 105 but as a result of being a Group Three winner has to give 5lbs away to his main rivals. He’s certainly a big player with William Buick riding this Godolphin runner but his two runs this season have been well below-par so does seem to have a bit to prove at present. The boys in blue also run Koditime, who has done little wrong this season in winning well at York and then beaten just a head last time at Windsor. This, however, is a step up in grade, with both those efforts being in handicaps. We can expect Mokaatil to have come on a lot for his return run at York last time and having run a close third in the Group Three Cornwallis Stakes at HQ last season has shown he can go well at this sort of level. He’s only had 6 career runs so will have more to come but, for me, he did carry his head a bit awkwardly last time and that would be a concern. Haddaf is a proven course and distance winner but every time he’s stepped up to this level he’s been coming up a bit short. But it’s the other course and distance winner in the field – SPOOF – that gets the call. This 3 year-old represents last year’s winning trainer – Charles Hills – and after a good win at Chester last time heads here in rude form. Yes, this step up from handicap company to Listed grade requires more but we know the track suits and is slightly better off with Hadaff, who finished two places in front of him here back in April. Of the rest, the Stuart Kittow-trained YOUKAN might do best of those at bigger prices. The yard boasts a decent 2-from-5 record here with their 3 year-olds and with only two career runs (1 win) then their runner should have more to give.

 

3.15 – Randox Health Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

6 previous runnings
5/6 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had won between 2-4 times before
5/6 – Had won over 1m before
5/6 – Rated between 90-94
5/6 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
4/6 – Aged 4 years-old
4/6 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
4/6 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/6 – Had run at the course before
4/6 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
3/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the six previous races to go on here but some fair trends starting to build up. It’s been a decent race for the market leaders with 50% of the last 6 favourites winning, while 5 of the last 6 winners returned 8/1 or shorter. It’s interesting that jockey James Doyle isn’t riding the Goldolphin runner here – SILVER LANE – but with 10-0 to carry then trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has opted for jockey Lewis Edmunds to take off a handy 3lbs. The yard boasts an excellent 50% (5 from 10) record with their older horses here and now dropped into a handicap this 4 year-old should find things a lot easier than the Listed and Group races he was contesting last season. The stable are also going well at the moment so it’s hard to ignore his chance. The already-mentioned James Doyle has been snapped-up to ride the Charlie Fellowes-trained Chiefofchiefs and after a gutsy win here last time out will certainly have his supporters. The first two pulled clear of the others that day but despite only getting home by a head you feel this 5 year-old was always holding the runner-up. He’s a horse I know the yard likes but I do also feel he needs to show a bit more consistency on the track. He’s also up 4lbs from that last run. The consistent Salt Whistle Bay will be popular with punters as they see a string of 1’s, 2’s and 3’s next to his name but as a result continues to rise up the ratings and is another 3lbs higher from his last run here. Via Serendipity ran well last time but that was just three days ago so we’ll have to see how much that took out of him, while the Gary Moore-trained Gossiping is better than his last run, but the yard are not in the best of form at present. Almoreb and Manson are other proven course and distance winners in the field that command respect but ZWAYYAN is the other one we like here. The Andrew Balding yard are in decent order at the moment and this 5 year-old wasn’t disgraced when running second to Repercussion, who is also trained by Charlie Fellowes, last time at Nottingham. Yes, the Fellowes camp will know where they stand with this horse based on that, but with this only being Zwayyan’s third run of the season we can expect more to come. He gets in on the same mark and seems to act on all going so even if there is some rain that will be fine – I expect he’s got more to come.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

 

1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Carried 9-11 or more
13/15 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
12/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
12/15 – Aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/15 – Rated between 80-89
11/15 – Won from a single-figure stall
10/15 – Favourites placed in the top four
10/15 – Had run at York before
9/15 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
8/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/15 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/15 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Luca Cumani
2/15 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
1/15 – Placed horses from stall 2
Tapis Libre (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A chance for the amateur riders to shine here. The veteran, but talented Serena Brotherton has been booked to ride Pacify so that horse is sure to attract support, but it won’t be easy with 11-0 to carry. Vent De Force and Desert Ruler are proven course winners here, plus we also have last year’s winner in the race – TAPIS LIBRE. This 10 year-old turned back the clock to win this by 1 ¼ lengths last year and gets in off the same mark. He’s actually carrying 2lbs less in weight this time and has returned to the track this season in decent order with close third and fifths. This race would have been a firm target all season so can be expected to go close – last year’s winning rider – Jo Mason – gets the leg-up again so this is certainly one for the shortlist. We’ve also got last year’s runner-up in the race – Mukhayyam – and a good case can be made for this 6 year-old too. The Tim Easterby yard have a decent record in the race – winning 4 of the last 15 – and he’s another that comes here off the back of a good recent run (2nd Chester) with this race in mind. Yes, he’s rated 5lbs higher this year but I wouldn’t be too bothered in a race like this about that as has won off a higher mark last season anyway. Emily Easterby rode last year and remains in the saddle so everything points to another bold show here. Of the rest, the Jedd O’Keeffe yard have a decent 21% record with their older horses here so their DESERT RULER, with the useful Becky Smith riding, is also worth a small interest. As mentioned, a proven course winner here and should be a lot fitter for his return second at Chester last month. He stays this trip well and having hit the first three from his 16 runs on the turf then that’s a decent place return for this 5 year-old. The Mark Johnston-trained Star Of The East will catch the eye of punters, but the yard are just 2 from 48 (4%) with their older horses here, while the same can be said for Kevin Ryan (3 from 96, 3%) – they run Armandihan.

 

2.25 – JCB Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 4 years-old
3/3 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
3/3 – Rated between 90-99
3/3 – Unplaced favourites
3/3 – Had raced at York before
3/3 – Came from a single-figure stall
2/3 – Won over 7f before
2/3 – Came from stall 9
0/3 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 11/1
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Charles Hills has a 22% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Jedd O’Keeffe has a 21% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 3 from 96 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 2 from 48 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 12 from 243 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 9 from 176 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 4 from 138 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Georgina Cox is 3 from 4 riding older horses at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just three past runnings and so far we’ve not seen a winning favourite. It’s more interesting that two of the last three winners came from stall 9, so it’s that’s to be repeated then the Tim Easterby-trained GOLDEN APOLLO is worthy of a decent shout. This 4 year-old looks to be ready to hit top gear after a close fourth last time out here over this course and distance, plus is dropped a pound too. He stayed on well that day and is now just a pound higher than his last win. All of the last three winners came from a single-figure draw so if that’s to be repeated then The Feathered Nest, Above The Rest, Roller and Salateen have this trend to overcome – but I’d like to stress it’s only from three previous renewals. Gallipoli should not be far away with the promising Seb Woods taking off a handy 5lbs, while Get Knotted was 9th in this race 12 months ago but is only 3lbs lower this time. However, the William Haggas-trained SQUATS continued to drop to what looks a handy mark and certainly catches the eye. He was a much-better fourth last time at Chelmsford and if building on that can have say too. He’s also now down to a mark of 95 and that’s when his last victory came, plus the Haggas camp boasts an impressive 20%+ strike-rate with their older horses here. Of the others, with Ryan Moore booked to ride Spanish City then this Roger Varian runner is sure to be popular too. He’s won two of his last three and should have a lot more to come. However, the Moore factor will mean he probably won’t be much value so I’m happy to take him on with Squats and Golden Apollo.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

9/10 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/10 – Had raced in the last 2 months
9/10 – Officially rated 103 or higher
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 1-7 (inc)
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Won at least 4 times before (flat)
7/10 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at the track before
2/10 – Trained by Peter Niven
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
Clever Cookie won the race in 2014 & 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Clever Cookie has won this race a few times in the past but at 10 years-old is getting a bit long in the tooth these days. On a plus the Peter Niven yard have a decent 29% record with their older horses here. The Ralph Beckett runner – Melodic Motion – gets a handy 5lbs fillies allowance from the others and is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. With that in mind the 226 day absence isn’t a worry and she’s yet to finish out of the first three from 7 runs on the turf. She’s got decent form at Group 2 and 3 level so if tuned-up for this return run then can go well. The 114-rated paid of Marmelo and WEEKENDER set the standard though. The first-named will be popular with Ryan Moore riding and was an excellent second over in France in a better race than this last time out. He’s proven Group Two winner but my only niggle is that the Hughie Morrison yard are just 2 from 32 with their runners here at the track. Another yard with a below-average return with their older horses here is Mark Johnston (2 from 48) – they run Time To Study, who is often a force in these staying races but doesn’t quite win enough for me anyway. Therefore, WEEKENDER gets the call with Frankie riding. Yes, he flopped last time out at Sandown in the Group 2 Henry II Stakes but the 2m trip was probably stretching his stamina that day and this Frankel colt should be much more at home over 1m6f. He won well over this trip the time before at Chelmsford and also had Time To Study in behind the last day too. The final icing on the cake is the Gosden horses could not be in much better shape with at the time of writing having had 8 winners from their last 29 and also boast a decent 23% strike-rate with their runners here at York.

 

3.35 –Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

11/13 – Rated between 87-97
11/13 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
10/13 – Unplaced favourites
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Won by Tim Easterby (inc 3 of the last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/13 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1
7 of the last 10 winners came from a single-figure draw
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 4 from 12 (33%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is 2 from 9 (22%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Andrea Atzeni is 7 from 33 (21%) riding 3 year-olds at the track
Paul Hanagan is only 1 from 46 riding 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A very tricky handicap to unravel here but it’s a race that trainer Tim Easterby has made his own in recent years so the safe call here could be to just stick with him. The yard has won three of the last 5 runnings, including 12 months ago, and so their 4 year-old STAXTON gets the vote to continue their excellent record in the race. This 3 year-old ran well on his return run at Newmarket back in April and despite not been out since I suspect it’s because this race was a firm target. He’s down a few pounds for that last run and with 7 of the last 10 winners also coming from a single-figure stall then draw 3 looks ideal. Both career wins have also been over this 6f trip so the drop back in distance is fine, while he’s got decent track form here at York after going close in the Rockingham (Listed) and Gimcrack (Group Two) here last season – he’ll find this drop in grade much more to his liking. Richard Fahey (4%), Andrew Balding (0%) and Mick Channon (4%) don’t have great records with their 3 year-olds here so their runners are overlooked. Fahey runs four – Great Prospector, Gabrial The Saint, Zap and Bengali Boys, while Channon has Neola and Balding runs Foxtrot Lady. In contrast, the Clive Cox team have a decent 27% record here so their Snazzy Jazzy, with Ryan Moore booked, stands out. This 3 year-old was hampered last time out at Newmarket so a line can be put through that, but prior to that has won his three previous starts and should have more to come. However, the other selection is JAWWAAL. This John Gosden runner heads here on a three-timer after wins at Lingfield and Kempton, while it’s interesting he’s dropped back from 7f to 6f. The yard have a decent 28% record with their 3 year-olds at the track and despite this being a step up in grade connections clearly feel he’s up to the task and with only five career runs should have more in the locker.

 

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.40 – City of London Handicap (Cl2) (3yo 0-100) 1m4f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Kevin Ryan and Michael Bell horses are not in the best of form at the moment so their runners Morning Wonder and Neverbeen To Paris are given a wide berth, although it’s worth noting the Ryan team do okay here with their 3 year-olds (24%). Austrian School was a beaten favourite last time out at Doncaster, but that came over 1m6f on soft ground so the return to a sounder surface and the drop in trip are pluses. He was also a good winner here over CD two runs ago at the Chester May Meeting so we know the track suits, but he is 8lbs higher now. Ian Willliams runs two – Shuhood and Heart Of Soul and with the last-named owned by Marwan Koukash, who loves to have winners here, then he gets the nod of the Williams par. Andrew Balding does ok at the track too (23% 3 year-old) so his Berkshire Royal can’t be overlooked. This 3 year-old was close-up behind Austrian School here in May and is weighted to be closely-matched with the Johnston horse again. However, the call here is ISTANBUL SULTAN. From the William Haggas yard that have a 27% record with their 3 year-olds here but the key here is the step up in trip. Their horse has looked a tad one-paced over 1m2f in his two races this season and I think he’ll benefit a lot from more of a stamina test. Breeding suggests it’s worth a crack and it’s interesting the yard have given the horse 42 days to get over that last run which looked a bit of a battle at Wetherby (2nd).

 

 

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