Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 16th Dec 2017

Cheltenham and Doncaster free racing tips

Fingers crossed the weather holds out as we’ve one of the jump season highlights this Saturday with Cheltenham’s final day of their December Meeting. A bumper day at Prestbury Park with the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and the International Hurdle two of the highlights – the ITV cameras will be showing us four LIVE races from Prestbury Park.

The LIVE ITV action doesn’t end at Cheltenham though as they are also at Doncaster to take in three races so we’ll be praying the worst of the weather also bypasses them.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.55 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
11/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners)
10/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (4 won)
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Officially rated 142 or higher
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/15 – French bred
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
4/15 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some familiar faces line-up here, with plenty of clues coming out of last month’s BetVictor Gold Cup. Splash Of Ginge took that race four weeks ago and off just 5lbs higher can be expected to make a bold bid, but only Exotic Dancer (2006) has managed to land both races in the last 15 years. The Pipe-trained Starchitect was only a neck behind that day so will be a big player again too on similar terms and with his Cheltenham record reading 4-5-5-5-2 then he looks sure to be involved. Kings Odyssey won over course and distance on Trials Day here back in January so is another to consider after a decent return run at Carlisle last month, but probably doesn’t win enough for me. 6 and 7 years-olds have the best recent record, while trainer Paul Nicholls is the man to follow with four wins in the last 15 runnings of this race. His Le Prezien fits the key age trend at 6 and has done little wrong this season with a second at the October Meeting and then running third in the BetVictor Gold Cup four weeks ago. He’s a danger, but, for me, is another that doesn’t win enough and could be booked for a place yet again. Nicholls also runs Romain De Senam, who was fifth in the BV Gold Cup, but also has CLAN DES OBEAUX. This 5 year-old falls down on the age trend and it won’t be easy carrying 11-12, but he’s a fast-improving chaser. A 7lb rise looks a tad harsh for a recent Haydock win but he did it very easily that day and deserves to take his chance. Before that he ran the classy Whisper to ½ a length at Kempton and that horse has since franked the form by running a close second in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Hennessy). Track (has run here before), trip and ground are all fine and up-and-coming jockey Harry Cobden continues in the saddle. Of the rest, Long House Hall is a past course winner, but returns from a 500+ day absence so is overlooked, so the danger to the pick can come from BALLYALTON (e/w). This 10 year-old , who don’t forget was a Festival winner here back in March, was a fair fourth in the BV Gold Cup here last month, but with a handy weight pull can be expected to get a lot closer this time at a track his form figures read a decent 1-4-2-6-1-4.

2.30 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/13 – Placed favourites
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/13 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/13 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (2 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
9/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/13 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
8/13 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/13 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
8/13 – Irish bred
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Ben Pauling runner Equua Secretus would certainly be a massive player after easy wins this season at Huntingdon and Southwell. He’s unbeaten and deserves to take his chance with a fairly tall reputation, but this will be a lot tougher. So, the horse that caught the eye last time out was COUNT MERIBEL. This Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained 5 year-old was an easy 8 length winner at Ascot last month and based on that looks like there is more to come. Yes, this looks harder, but he wasn’t stopping that day and the form of his previous win at Carlisle has been more than upheld with the second winning well since. The horse will also be stepping up to 3m for the first time, but the way he powered up the Ascot straight last time was enough to think the extra yardage will be within range. Of the rest, the Fergal O’Brien camp run two of the five runners in Aye Aye Charlie and Global Stage, with the last-named looking their better hope after a nice win at Ayr recently. Kilbricken Storm makes up the numbers, but is certainly no back-number. The Tizzard yard are going well at the moment and this horse has won two of it’s last three – including an easy 27 length win at Wincanton last time out. He rates the danger to the selection.

3.05 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

15/15 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
13/15 – Won over 2m1f (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
12/15 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
12/15 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
11/15 –  Favourites placed
11/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/15 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/15 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/15 – Rated 162 or higher
7/15 – Winning distance:  4+ lengths
6/15 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
4/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won the Betfair Hurdle last time out
2/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
1/15 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
The New One has won the race in 2013, 2014 and 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 7/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only seven runners, but it looks a cracker of a race. Top darts from Willie Mullins to bring Melon over. Last season’s Supreme Novices’ runner-up is a big player too. We know the track suits after that top run at the Festival back in March and he returned last month with an easy win at Down Royal. Soft ground is fine and you can be sure the Mullins camp are not sending him over for a day out. Of the UK challengers, recent Newbury scorer, Old Guard, has run back into form and was a decent third in the Greatwood Hurdle here 4 weeks ago. However, with that last win coming over 2m4f you just feel the drop back in trip might not be 100% ideal for this 6 year-old now and now out of handicap company does have a bit more to find at the weights. The New One, who has won this race three times before, including 12 months ago, was a place behind Old Guard in the Greatwood, but was giving the horse 19lbs that day (not to mention Byrony Frost’s 5lb claim)! He only has to give him 2lbs this time so that highlights the task facing the Paul Nicholls runner here. So, despite being 9 years-old now THE NEW ONE seems to have a lot going for him again, in a race he loves to win and gets the call. He stays this 2m1f trip well and will be running on up the hill a lot stronger than most. He also had My Tent Or Yours 3 ½ lengths behind in second 12 months ago and really it should be more of the same this time. Yes, the Henderson horse has since been runner-up in the Champion Hurdle and also gets 6lbs from the selection, but he’s a horse that finishes second more times than winning and, as I said, that looks the case again here. Ch’Tibello is the only other worth a mention and is certainly no back number getting 6lbs from The New One. But he missed the second half of last season with injury and after a 301 day break fitness would have to be taken on trust.

3.40 – OLBG Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Both winners carried 10-11 in weight
Both winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Harry Fry has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Martin Keighley has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland has only a 3% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien is just 2 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Harry Fry camp boast an impressive 21% strike-rate with their hurdlers here so their Lamanver Odyssey is sure to be popular – especially after a nice win at Wincanton last month. Up 7lbs makes life harder, but goes well with cut underfoot and Noel Fehily is a plus in the saddle. However, jockey Aidan Colemen, who rode Lamanver last time, could have a big say here – he’s now on the Martin Keighley runner Brillare Momento. This improving 6 year-old won well over this course and distance back in October and with that course experience looks a major player. In fact, he’s run here four times (winning twice) so clearly relishes the stiff finish and with a 2 month break it could be more of the same. However, it’s worth pointing out all those good course wins have been on good ground and with his only run on soft resulting in a poor display the underfoot conditions would be a concern. The call for me though is RONS DREAM (e/w). This experienced mare is slipping back to a nice mark and wasn’t disgraced last time at Kempton in a Class 1 contest. Soft ground is fine for this Peter Bowen runner, while son James claims a handy 5lbs from the saddle. Add in he’s a proven course winner then he’ll have no issues surrounding the track either. Momella, Molly Childers and Graceful Legend are others to note, especially the last-named after an easy 7 length win at Ascot. A 10lb rise looks a tad harsh but she did it well that day and if handling the softer ground would be of interest.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.10 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/7 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
6/7 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Priced 9/4 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Placed favourites
5/7 – French (2) or Irish (3) bred
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Won last time out
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 4 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/4

Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the seven past runnings but with three of the last 4 renewals going to trainer Paul Nicholls then the safe call looks to be to stick with him. At this stage he’s got BRAQUEUR D’OR running. This 6 year-old was last seen running fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Hennessy) and despite being 13 lengths back that day it was still a top effort. Back into a Novice Chase here so the company won’t be as hot and really that’s the best bit of recent form on show. Keeper Hill is another that would have benefitted from a recent second at Plumpton behind a fair Gary Moore yardstick and there should be more to come with just two runs over fences from this decent former hurdler. Rocklander also caught the eye when dotting-up over fences (50+ lengths) on his debut run over the bigger obstacles. This will be harder and is up to 3m here, but the Tom George yard have been a bit quiet of late and that would be a small concern. Course winner (NH Flat) Ballycrystal, who is a former winning point-to-point winner over 3m, could go best of the rest after making a pleasing chase debut

2.45 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/7 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 3
6/7 – Had won just once before over hurdles
5/7 – Irish (3) or French (2) bred
5/7 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
4/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
2/7 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls the race 12 months ago
Peace and Co won the race in 2015 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: In 2015 we saw a future Triumph Hurdle winner in Peace And Co land this race before going onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival so you never know. In fact, the same connections have a runner here too with WE HAVE A DREAM, who was a smooth winner on his UK debut at Warwick. This French import won that race by 10 lengths and I think it’s fair to say trainer Nicky Henderson looks to have another potentially useful one on his hands. Eragon De Chanay looks a fair sort but will have more to find from what we’ve seen so far. So, the danger might come from the Nicholls runner – Act Of Valour. This 3 year-old was a good winner on it’s UK debut at Newcastle a few weeks ago and with the yard winning this 12 months ago clearly think he’s up to going well in following up for the yard. He does have to give 3lbs away to the fillies though and that won’t be easy, but he still looks a nice prospect for this powerful yard and shouldn’t be underestimated.

3.20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4

8/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Aged 8 or younger
7/8 – Had won no more than 2 times over fenced
6/8 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
5/8 – Aged 7 years-old
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Ran at Doncaster before
5/8 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
2/8 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
1/8 – Winning favourites
The last three winners were all rated 139
No Duffer (9/1) won the race 12 months ago
Sego Success won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The two I like here are the Emma Lavelle-trained VIBRATO VALTAT (e/w) and the 2015 winner of the race – SEGO SUCCESS (e/w). The first-named hails from the yard that took this prize in 2011 and 2012 so knows what’s needed, while a recent fourth at Newbury was certainly a step back in the right direction. This former Paul Nicholls-trained runner was once rated in the 160’s so his current mark of 145 looks very attractive to say the least. With this also only his third start for his new yard there should be more to come from this horse – who is still only 8 years-old. The step up to 3m is also an interesting move with all his past runs being over much shorter, but he was staying on well over 2m4f last time to suggest it’s worth a crack. Sego Success took this race in 2015 off a mark of 139 so his current rating of 136 gives him a leading chance again. He’s still only 9 years-old, while is a horse that acts on most ground. A 2 month break after a good second at Warwick means he comes here fresher than most and would have clearly had this race as a target so some time. Of the rest, Ballybolley would have an obvious chance for the Twiston-Davies team, while Virgilio should be a lot better after this first run back at Aintree, plus the step back up in trip is a positive. With the last three winners all rated 139 then the consistent Kilcrea Vale, from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard, is another that should make it’s presence felt and it’s interesting that top jockey Nico de Boinville is heading here to Doncaster rather than Cheltenham today.

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