Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 15th Sept 2018

Free horse racing tips and trends

This Saturday the ITV cameras are at Doncaster for their final day of their St Leger Meeting, where the final Classic of the 2018 turf season – the St Leger – takes centre stage – did you know 14 of the last 16 St Leger winners were placed last time out, while 12 of the last 16 returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting?

We’ve also a decent supporting card at Chester and the ITV cameras will be taking in three contests on the Roodee too.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get cracking!

 

Saturday 15th September 2018

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1.50 – William Hill Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV

15/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/16 – Won over 6f before
13/16 – Had run 5 or more times that season
13/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/16 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
11/16 – Won 4 or more times in their career
11/16 – Run at Doncaster previously
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Unplaced Favourites
8/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 7 of last 10 years)
6/16 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/16 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/16 – Won last time out
Spring Loaded (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 22 runners heading to post here so a tough opener to unravel. However, with 13 of the last 16 winners coming from a double-figure stall then this can hopefully help to knock nine of the runners out – Tis Marvellous (1), The Daley Express (2), Savalas (3), Powerallied (4), Muscika (5), Golden Apollo (6), Roundhay Park (7), Wentworth Falls (8) and Holmeswood (9) are the ones that will be trying to overcome the negative low-draw stat. With 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 8-12 or more this is another key trend to have onside – this would mean we can focus on the top 13 on the card. 13 of the last 16 winners had raced five or times that season, while 12 of the last 16 were rated between 95-101. Taking all those main trends into account then the seven that standout are A MOMENTOFMADNESS, MARNIE JAMES, ORVAR, ENCRYTED, DUKE OF FIRENZE, BLUE DE VEGA and OPEN WIDE. Of those, A MOMENTOFMADNESS was sixth in the race 12 months ago, but is actually 4lbs higher in the ratings this time so might have a bit to prove off this mark. The 3 year-old Marnie James is yet to run here and with 11 of the last 16 winners having tasted the Doncaster track before then this would be a negative – while the last 3 year-old to win this race was back in 2000. It’s actually been the 5 year-olds that have the best recent record – winning 7 of the last 11. Baasedon this age stat Encrypted is another 3 year-old that is overlooked so that leaves us with ORVAR, DUKE OF FIRENZE, BLUE DE VEGA and OPEN WIDE and the four main picks. The 5 year-old Orvar was a good winner here over 5f last time out and despite being 6lbs higher heads here in great order – draw 19 looks fine too. Duke Of Firenze was down the field in this race last year (9th) but is a full 12lbs lower this time. He’s not getting any younger at 9 year-olds but is starting to look well-handicapped and Jim Crowley is a top jockey booking. Blue De Vega has been running well of late and will have the services of Frankie Dettori, who’s won this race twice in the past (2000 & 2003). Finally, Open Wide will come out of draw 13 but this 4 year-old is another that a top jockey – Andrea Atzeni – has been booked to ride and from his last 8 races has only been out of the first three twice.

 

2.25 – Alan Wood Plumbing Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

13/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/15 – Run 3 or more times that season
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Won over 7f before
12/15 – Won a Group race previously
12/15 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/15 – Unplaced in their most recent race
7/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
6/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 9 runnings
Acclaim (3/1) won the race in 2017
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: BRETON ROCK, who is now 8 year-old, won this race in 2016 and can be fancied to go close again. He’s the joint-highest rated in the field and has run some solid races in this grade already this season. With 11 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds in the race – Unfortunately and Raydiance – will have this to overcome. 13 of the last 15 winners had also raced at least three times that season so the other joint top-rated Mustashry, who has only raced twice this term, has this against him. Godolphin have a decent hand too with D’bai and Dutch Connection, however, both are horses that don’t seem to win as much as they should. So, the call here is the Ryan Moore-ridden OH THIS IS US to continue his winning form. This Richard Hannon runner won a fair handicap at Chester last time but was only beaten just over two lengths in the Group Two Celebration Mile the time before over a mile. However, the drop back to 7f looks a plus and he’s also one of just two proven course and distance winners in the field. He’s run here twice and been first and second so clearly likes the place.

 

3.00 – Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
13/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/17 – Finished third or better last time out
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
8/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/17 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Seahenge (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The unbeaten Mark Johnston runner – Dark Vision – has looked a very decent horse and since his easy Vintage Stakes win at Glorious Goodwood has been snapped-up by Godolphin. He’s a big horse that seems to need every yard of this 7f trip and he looks sure to go close. However, it won’t be easy having to give away 3lbs to most of the others – including another unbeaten horse in TOO DARN HOT. This John Gosden-trained juvenile has won his only two starts in easy fashion and went into many a notebook last time with an easy 4 length win in the Group Three Solario Stakes at Sandown. He romped home by an easy 4 lengths that day and it’s no secret that connections think he could go to the very top. Frankie Dettori ride. Of the rest, Phoenix Of Spain is a fast improving sort that can go well too, while the Aidan O’Brien camp will be looking to follow-up their win in the race from last year with Cardini and Van Beethoven entered. Bye Bye Hong Kong makes up the field, but really this looks a fascinating match-up between the unbeaten pair of Dark Vision and Too Darn Hot – I’ll take the later to live up to his name and be the one that remains with his unbeaten record intact.

 

3.35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV

15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
10/16 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/16 – USA-bred winners
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another race that could easily develop into a match-up with Kew Gardens and LAH TI DAR the two horses in question. Yes, the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a fine record in the race (6 wins) and in Loxley and Old Persian they have live chances again. While the Epsom Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee is a consistent and tough sort that has finished in the top three in 9 of his 11 career starts. He was just over 4 lengths behind Kew Gardens at Longchamp in July so will need to find a bit of improvement for the step up in trip. Since then Kew Gardens has run third in the Great Voltigeur over 1m4f so will need to reverse that form with the winner Old Persian, but you feel Kew Gardens is a better horse over this longer trip so would have every chance of doing so – 6 of the last 16 St Leger winners ran in that York race prior to heading here. Having said that, it’s still hard to get away from the Gosden runner – LAH TI DAR – and full marks to connections for running her here instead of other possible targets later in the season. Being a filly, she’ll get a handy 3lbs from Kew Gardens and she’ll also need to step up to this much higher graded race. She was last seen winning by an easy 10 lengths in a Listed race and with 12 of the last 16 St Leger winners having won at Group level she’ll need to overcome this stat. The Gosden yard also have a fine record in the race – winning it four times in total with the most recent being in 2011. This will also be her first try beyond 1m4f but she certainly wasn’t stopping over 1m4f last time and there is every reason to think she’ll be even better over this trip. Frankie rides and he’ll be looking for his sixth success in the race and his second for trainer John Gosden after the two teamed-up in 1996 with Shantou. I’ll take LAH TI DAR to live up to all the hype and hit the right St Leger notes!

 

CHESTER Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

 

2.05 – Read Josephine Gordon Blog At Unibet.co.uk/blog Handicap (Cl3) (4yo+ 0-90) ITV

– Just one previous running
– Trainer Kevin Ryan won last year’s race
– Trainer James Fanshawe has a 50% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
– Trainer Andrew Balding has a 22% (+43) strike-rate with his older horses at the track
– Trainer Ian Williams is only 3 from 47 (6%) with his older horses at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the one previous running of this race so not much to go on from the trends. The Andrew Balding yard do, however, have a decent 22% record at the track though so it might be worth taking a chance on their NIGHT OF GLORY (e/w). This 4 year-old is creeping back down the ratings after some lack-lustre runs of late but has run okay here at Chester in his last two starts to suggest he might be worth sticking with off this lower rating (3lbs lower than last time). Connections are also opting for the first-time blinkers here and the more experienced Martin Dwyer takes over in the saddle. Of the rest, the Ian Williams yard are only 3 from 47 with their older horses at the track so their Baydar makes little appeal. Captain Courageous and the only recent winner in the field – Ravenous – enter calculations, while Dr Marwan Koukash loves having winners at Chester so his quirky Suegioo can’t be discounted if in the mood.

 

2.40 – 32Red.com Stand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f66y ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won at least twice before
11/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/12 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/12 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
8/12 – Won at Listed or Group class before
7/12 – Rated between 102-110
7/12 – Favourites that finished either 1st or 2nd
4/12 – Ran at York last time out
4/12 – Had run at Chester before
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Trained by Pat Chamings
Duretto (11/10 fav) won the race in 2017
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only 8 runners here but half the field are proven course winners here – Blakeney Point, Gabrial, Hochfield and Mountain Bell. All four are respected but this could be another for the Andrew Balding yard, who have a decent 26% record at the track with their 3 year-olds – they run SHAILENE (e/w). This filly gets in with just 8-4 to carry and with that gets 13lbs from the top four on the card. She was a fair third in a Listed race last time out at Hamilton but ran on well that day to suggest this longer trip will suit much better. Prior to that she was an easy 6 length winner at Chelmsford over 1m2f so knows how to win a race, plus with only five career runs should have more to come. Oh, the Balding yard also won this race 12 months ago. Mountain Bell was also the 2016 winner of this race so commands respect but has rather lost it’s way of late so needs to bounce back. 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or younger so this is another plus for the selection but a negative for the likes of Gabrial (9) and Sir Chauvelin (6).

 

 

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