Plenty to look forward to this weekend as we’ve one of the jump season highlights this Saturday with Cheltenham’s final day of their December Meeting. A bumper day at Prestbury Park with the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and the International Hurdle two of the highlights – the ITV cameras will be showing us four LIVE races from Prestbury Park.
The LIVE ITV action doesn’t end at Cheltenham though as they are also at Doncaster to take in three races so we’ll be praying the worst of the weather also bypasses them.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)
1.55 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
12/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners)
11/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (4 won)
11/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Officially rated 142 or higher
10/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – French bred
7/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
6/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
4/16 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Plenty of key trends to take into the race and with most in his favour it’s hard to get away from the chance of BARON ALCO (e/w). The Gary Moore team are in great form at the moment and this 7 year-old was a top winner here last month. A 6lb rise makes life harder but he beat Frodon by 2 lengths that day and looked to have a bit more up his sleeve. Prior to that he was a close second to the classy Charbel at Chepstow and that form has been given a boost after that horse landed the Peterborough Chase easily last Sunday. Baron Alco loves the track too – his form over fences here reads 3-2-2-1! Rather Be will be also be popular and was in the process of running a big race behind Baron Alco last time until being brought down. He ticks a lot of the trends too, but Baron looks the better value. Of the rest, last year’s winner – GUITAR PETE (e/w) – is another to note as he was third behind Baron Alco last time out and is only 3lbs higher than when winning this 12 months ago. He gets in with a light weight too and also seems to have the bulk of the main trends on his side. Recent winners, Mr Medic and War Sound, are others to consider, while with just 10-0 to carry the Paul Nicholls-trained Romain De Senam looks best of those at bigger prices with the talented Sean Bowen in the plate.
2.30 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
14/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Placed favourites
12/14 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/14 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
9/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/14 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/14 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
2/14 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The last 9 winners all returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some interesting novices on show here, from some leading yards. The Twiston-Davies yard have landed 2 of the last 14 runnings so anything they run should be noted – at this stage they have Rocco entered, who has fair form but has not quite been firing of late. Paul Nicholls took this in 2011 and in Danny Whizzbang looks to have a leading chance if running too. He was a sooth winner at Hereford last time but might need to settle a bit better. Colin Tizzard won this with Kilbricken Storm, last season and that horse went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival, so this race is always worth looking back on come March for the Albert Bartlett – Tizzard has Rockpoint entered at this stage. Aye Aye Charlie is a useful sort too that was 7th in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last season and then fourth in the Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree – if running he will be very popular. However, the call is to side with the Nicky Henderson-trained DOUX PRENTENDER. This 5 year-old has won his last two in gutsy fashion and with that last win coming off a 6 month break can be expected to be a lot better for it. The step up in trip looks a plus too and the Henderson runners could not be in better form.
3.05 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4
16/16 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
15/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Won over 2m1f (hurdles) previously
13/16 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
12/16 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
12/16 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
11/16 – Won their latest race
11/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/16 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/16 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/16 – Rated 162 or higher
7/16 – Winning distance: 4+ lengths
6/16 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
4/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/16 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Won the Betfair Hurdle last time out
3/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
1/16 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
The New One has won the race in 2013, 2014 and 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/3
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Did you know the last seven winners on this race were trained by Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies – all three are represented again this year! The 10 year-old The New One, from the Twiston-Davis team, has landed this race three times and was a fine second last year too – if he can land another win then he’d become the most successful horse in the races history. Of course, he’s got a chance, but recent runs suggest his old age might be catching up with him after running below-par the last three times and was 25 lengths behind Silver Streak at Ffos Las last time – albeit giving that horse 15lbs! Brain Power is interesting now back over hurdles – he’s not quite cut the mustard over fences, but he actually ticks a lot of the main trends here and should be a lot better for his return run over fences here (4th) last month. He was 8th in the 2017 Champion Hurdle and even though his form lacks consistency is one of the highest-rated hurdlers in the field off 158. The consistent Old Guard rarely runs a bad race and can’t be ruled out sneaking into the frame for the Paul Nicholls yard – he ticks a lot of the main trends and looks a must for each-way or placepot punters. While last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner – Summerville Boy – would enter the mix if running to the level that saw him win last year’s Festival curtain raiser. He did, however flop in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle a few weeks ago but being that was his first run since March can be forgiven – I’d still like to see a return to form on the track first and the Tom George camp are a tad quiet at the moment. Silver Streak was a close second in the Greatwood Hurdle on his first run at the track last month and on that run would go close too. Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle, so this Evan Williams-trained runner is sure to attract interest.
3.40 – OLBG Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4
Just 3 previous runnings
All three winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – winners carried 10-11 in weight
2/3 – winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
1 winning favourite (joint)
Trainers, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams, Anthony Honeyball have won the race in the past
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Brillare Momento is the only CD winner in the field so can’t be ruled out but hasn’t really fulfilled his potential that he showed a few seasons ago – a bit to prove but the first-time visor is interesting. The likes of Countister and Giveaway Glance will be popular and can be expected to run well, while if running Definitelyanoscar and Chilli Filli have caught the eye when winning last time out so are others for the shortlist. However, the Dan Skelton camp took this race 12 months ago and they look to have another leading chance this year with RATOUTE YUTTY. This 5 year-old returned to the track with a fair fourth at Ascot last month on what was her first run for the yard. That was also her first run back after wind surgery so there should be more to come. She had fair form in Ireland (6 runs) so has a decent amount of experience and with only 10-10 to carry in weight gets in here with a low burden.
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)
1.35 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
8 previous runnings
8/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/8 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
7/8 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
6/8 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – French (2) or Irish (4) bred
6/8 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/8 – Placed favourites
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 5 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/8
Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Rocky’s Treasure ran well at Newbury (2nd) last time out and can be expected to make a bold bid from the front again – he’s the clear top-rated in the field and the one to beat. However, the Paul Nicholls yard have a decent strike-rate in the race – winning 3 of the last 5 runnings – so anything they run should be respected. At this stage he’s got COUP DE PINCEAU entered and with their good record in the race might be worth chancing. Yes, he’s got a bit to find on these terms as he’s giving a bit of weight to horses on higher marks than him, but he looks progressive. He’s won his last two and has looked on both occasions that there is more in the locker. Course winner – King Of Realms is a horse that certainly caught the eye last time when winning on his return run at Ascot – he can go well too. Theclockisticking makes up the four runners but has a small bit to find on these terms and is overlooked.
2.45 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
8 previous runnings
8/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/8 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
7/8 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/8 – Had won just once before over hurdles
6/8 – Irish (3) or French (3) bred
6/8 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
5/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/8 – Trained by John Quinn
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Peace and Co won the race in 2014 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/2
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The popular green silks of the Simon Munir and Isaac Souede team have targeted this race with success in recent years – winning it 12 months ago and also in 2014 – so their Cracker Factory will be of interest, who is trained by Alan King. He was a fine second last time out at Cheltenham and from 6 runs over hurdles is yet to finish out of the top two. King also has Elysees entered at this stage so it’s a race he’s clearly got on his radar. More is needed from this one, but the horse has done little wrong in winning his last two and deserves to take his chance in this better race. But this is another contest the Paul Nicholls yard have won recently (2016) and their QUEL DESTIN actually beat Cracker Factory by just over a length at Cheltenham last time out so looks the one for the others to aim at. Prior to that he had Ghost Serge 12 lengths back in second so looks a decent juvenile for the yard this season – he can go well again here and is the top-rated in the field.
3.20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4
9/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Aged 8 or younger
8/9 – Had won no more than 2 times over fences
7/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/9 – Aged 7 years-old
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
5/9 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/9 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
1/9 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 4 winners were all rated 139
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: With all of the last 9 winners having raced in the last 6 weeks and 8 of the last 9 aged 8 or younger then these are two decent trends to take into the race. The Nicky Henderson yard is going well at the moment so their O O Seven will be popular. This 8 year-old returns from a break after having a wind op but the yard are sure to have him well tuned-up for this and he’s gone well at the track in the past. Lofgren and Straidnahanna are others in the race but it’s interesting that leading owner Paul and Clare Rooney had three entered in this race earlier in the week so the fact they pin their hopes on GO CONQUER looks significant. This 9 year-old returned to the track with a fine third at Ascot last month and only got run out of it in the closing stages. He’ll be better for the run and we can expect this front runner to make another bold bid from the front – on this flatter and slightly less demanding track he might just prove had to peg back.
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