Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 14th July 2018

Horse racing tips and trends

We’ve one of the busiest Saturdays of the year in terms of LIVE ITV races, with no fewer than ten races spread across three venues. We’ve the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Festival at HQ with the July Cup and Bunbury Cup two of their four LIVE races, while at York it’s John Smith’s Cup day so the ITV cameras are on the Knavesmire to take in four more LIVE races. Add in two more races at Ascot then it’s a Saturday horse racing fans have plenty to look forward to.

Did you know 15 of the last 16 John Smith’s Cup winners were aged 5 or younger?

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get cracking!

 

Saturday 14th July 2018

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.05 – Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Won over at least 6f previously
14/16 – Placed in their last race
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
11/16 – Won their latest race
11/16 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/16 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/16 – Favourites unplaced
4/16 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/16 – Winners from stall 3
4/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
5/16 – Winning Favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
Gustav Klimt (5/6) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard too this race 12 months ago and with CAPE OF GOOD HOPE they’ve got a decent chance of following up. This 2 year-old got off the mark on the third attempt at Tipperary just 9 days ago and the fact he’s the yard’s only runner in the race suggests he’s come on again for that win. Trip and ground look perfect and Ryan Moore riding is the icing on the cake. He’s a late May-born 2 year-old so may well just be a slightly late developer and now he’s won a race could easily improve very quickly – he should go well with the O’Brien yard boasting an impressive 40% record here with their 2 year-olds. Blown By Wind is the most experienced in the race with six runs (3 wins) but as a result might just have one of the others improve past him. With the Hannon team having a good record in this race then their Neverland Rock can’t be overlooked. He’s also a proven course and distance winner here and looked useful the last day on this quick ground. This will be a step up again though and despite having won the 1,000 Guineas earlier in the season the Hannon yard are having a bit of a quiet campaign so far. Daafr and Foresti were nice winners last time out, while Certain Lad has won two of his three starts. The once-raced Quorto might give the selection most to think about. From the Charlie Appleby yard that have a decent 25% strike-rate with their 2 year-olds here, this colt was an easy winner over 6f on debut over this course. Therefore, we know the track suits and breeding (Dubawi) suggests there is every chance this step up to 7f will suit.

 

1.40 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

15/16 – Won over 7f previously
15/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
12/16 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/16 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
8/16 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
8/16 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/16 – Placed in their last race
4/16 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Above The Rest (12) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1
Heaven’s Guest won the race in 2014 & was second in 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Horses that have raced at least three times this season, plus carrying 9-3 or less and aged 4 or 5 have the best recent records in this race. Also note horses that ran at Ascot last time out and the double-figure draws seem to have held the edge in recent years too. The 4 or 5 year-olds in the race that have 9-3 or less are Reckless Endeavour, Gilgamesh, Mukalal, Borderforce, Masham Star, Von Blucher and Spanish City. However, of those seven, Borderforce and Von Blucher are returning off a few months off while Mukala has only had one run this season (17th Hunt Cup) and is drawn 4. Yes, that was only his second run back after a wind-op so there should be more to come, and he’s only raced 9 times during his career, but his only career win came with a bit of give in the ground, so he might be better once the rain comes. Of that bunch the two that standout are GILGAMESH and SPANISH CITY. The first-named has been all the rage for this in the week and, yes, the value might have gone now. However, he has a lot going for him with 9-2 to carry and was only beaten a few lengths in the Wokingham Stakes at Ascot last time out. Draw 13 looks fine and William Buick, who has ridden him before, is a plus in the saddle. Spanish City gets in with only 8-7 and with that receives weight from most of the others. This 5 year-old has run well at the track in the past and wasn’t disgraced last time when a close fourth at York in a similar race off this mark. Fast ground is ideal and he’s a consistent sort that is never far away in his races. Draw 15 is a plus and he can make his light weight tell. Mubtasim will be popular for the William Haggas yard and Donnacha O’Brien is an interesting jockey booking. This 4 year-old ticks a lot of boxes and has been running in much better races than this. It won’t be easy, however, with 9-8 to carry in this handicap and is a horse that is now 8 races without a win. Finally, Ryan Moore has a fair record in the race – winning it in 2009 and 2012 – so his mount Makzeem, who is a proven course and distance winner, is another to consider

 

2.15 – Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners…..

2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011     Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010    Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009   Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008   Marchand d’Or  (5/2 fav)
2007   Sakhee’s Secret  (9/2)
2006   Les Arcs (10/1)
2005   Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004   Frizzante (14/1)
2003   Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002   Continent (12/1)

16 Year July Cup Betting Trends

15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/16 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won their previous race
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A great renewal of this Group One. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times in the past, with the last of those coming in 2010. He’s mob-handed again this year with five of the 14 runners – Sioux Nation, Intelligence Cross, Fleet Review, Spirit Of Valour and U S Navy Flag. The last-named is the mount of Ryan Moore so is sure to be popular but really based on the ratings there is not a lot between them all. BRANDO was an excellent third in the race 12 months ago and can be expected to be bang-there again – he looks to be fair each-way value. Dreamfield was well-touted for the Wokingham Stakes last time when backed into 2/1 fav for that 28 runner race. He only just failed too (neck) so can’t be ruled out on just his fifth career run here, but this is a leap up from handicap company into the highest level. Limato was the 2016 winner of this race so commands respect but he hasn’t quite looked the same horse this season and has a bit to prove. The pluses for him though in the drop in trip after not really staying 7f and a mile that he’s been running over and he was a fine runner-up in the race last year too – ignore him at your peril. Redkirk Warrior adds an International feel to the race, but this Aussie raider flopped in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes here last month and despite being a multiple Group One winner Down Under does have a bit to prove on these shores. Eqtidaar won the Commonwealth Cup last time at Ascot so that Group One winning form makes him a big player here too. He held SANDS OF MALI that day by ½ a length but there is every reason to think the second can reverse that form. The Fahey horse was running on really well in the closing stages but hung right in the closing stages too. He’s a 3 year-old that has a decent record over this 6f trip and will also improve his chance by getting 6lbs from the older horses in the race. Blue Point is the final one to note and looks set to go off favourite. He landed the King’s Stand at Ascot last time – beating the classy Battaash that day. He’s won over this extra furlong in the past too and is sure to be in the shake-up. My only niggle is that he’s only backed-up a win with another once in his career and that was during his 2 year-old days – in fact, on his first two ever starts.

 

3.20 – bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/16 – Had won over 7f or further previously
13/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
12/16 – Had 2 or more runs that season
9/16 – Unplaced in their last race
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning Favourites
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
Medahim (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The hat-trick seeking Ibraz will be popular after successes at Sandown and Nottingham but this looks harder and is also up another 7lbs here. The Brian Meehan yard boasts a decent 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so their Petrus enters calculations, while the same can be said for the Saeed Bin Suroor yard, who have a decent 24% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds here – they run Moqarrab for Godolphin, who was a good winner on the AW at Wolves last time. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin also run First Contact, but this horse is on a recovery mission after running down the field in the Britannia Stakes last time out at Ascot. So, the call here is for the John Gosden yard to repeat their 2016 win in the race – they run ARGENTELLO. This 3 year-old has won his last two very easily and should have more to come. Yes, this is a step up in grade but he’s a useful-looking colt that seems to have got the hang of things – he bolted-up by 6 lengths last time at Windsor. The danger can come from the Sir Michael Stoute yard with QAROUN. This horse fluffed the start at Donny last time but prior to that won well over 7f at Goodwood. The Stoute camp have won this race a few times in the past and it’s interesting they’ve given this horse a few months off to get over that last run.

 

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

1.55 – John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Won over 5f before
7/7 – Placed favourites
7/7 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/7 – Rated between 101 and 111
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Had only won at Handicap class before
4/7 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/7 – Won by a neck
4/7 – Won at York before
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Phillip Makin
Take Cover (5/1) won the race in 2017
Out Do won the race in 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several decent sprinters in here and we’ve no fewer than four proven course and distance winners. The consistent pair of Alpha Delphini and El Astronaute are two of those and should be in the shake-up, while Mr Lupton and TAKE COVER are the other proven course and distance winners – it’s the last of those that interests me the most. This 11 year-old is the older statesmen in the race but is also a past winner of this race (2017) and showing no signs of letting his age catch-up with him just yet. He’s run two solid races in defeat this season already and this drop into Listed company will see him in a much better light – his last three runs in this grade have ALL resulted in wins. He’ll love the quick ground and only has one way of running – blast out the stalls and play ‘catch me if you can’. Of the rest, Muthmir is also a course winner and at 8 years-old is another of the older sprinters still going strong. He won in this grade two starts ago and also won’t mind the ground. It’s a race that is likely to be won by a fine margin or a split decision but hopefully Take Cover can get out in front and avoid any issues.

 

2.35 – John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f ITV3

12/12 – Aged 5 or younger
12/12 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
11/12 – Won from stall 10 or lower
9/12 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Aged 4 years-old
6/12 – Had run at York before
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
4/12 – Luca Cumani-trained horses that finished in the top three
3/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Rare Rhythm (9/4) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five runners head to post here and really it should be the 113-rated DAL HARRAILD that takes the beating. This 5 year-old is also a proven course and distance winner here and based on the ratings has at least 6lbs in-hand on those nearest to him – Time To Study and Dylan Mouth. Yes, he flopped over in Dubai last time but conditions that day might not have suited and it was a slightly better race than this anyway. He’s had 3 months to get over that effort but is a horse that’s won fresh in the past, while the Haggas camp took this prize in 2013 too.

 

3.10 – John Smith´s Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV3

14/14 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
11/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/14 – Rated 90 or less
10/14 – Placed last time out
8/14 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
9/14 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
8/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won by a USA-bred horse
4/14 – Had raced at York before
3/14 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 12 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2 or 3
Chiefofchiefs (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Baraweez won well at Chester last time but is up 5lbs for that so more is needed. Parys Mountain is the only proven course and distance winner in the field so must have a chance based on that. However, with 12 of the last 14 winners aged between 4 and 6 years-old then the 6 year-old GET KNOTTED gets the call. This Michael Dods runner is also a course winner and stayed on well over 7f here last time to suggest this step back up to a mile is a plus. He gets in off the same mark too and is fine on quick ground. Of the others, the David O’Meara yard have won this race in 2012 and 2015 so their runner Rousayan might go well of those at bigger prices. This 7 year-old is slowing dropping to a fair mark after some average runs this season and looks as if the return to a mile and this quick ground will help.

 

3.40 – 59th John Smith´s Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV3

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners…….

2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 –  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/16 – Came from stall 9 or higher
12/16 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Carried 9-3 or less
10/16 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Officially rated between 99-105
7/16 – Had run at York before
5/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Just one winner aged older than 5 since 1970
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A lot of key trends to go on here so we can hopefully narrow down the 19 runners. With a massive 15 of the last 16 winners aged 5 or younger then this is a negative for Master The World, Appeared, Tandem, Sir Chauvelin, Dance King and Master Carpenter. In fact, if you want to take this trend a bit further it’s the 4 year-olds that have the better record – winning 10 of the last 16. Next-up is the draw and with 13 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this is another stat to note, while 12 of the last 16 winners had between 3-5 runs this term and 10 of the last 16 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight. Dash Of Spice will be all the rage after wins at Epsom and Ascot recently and could have more to offer. He’s up 5lbs more here but it’s worth noting those wins came over 1m4f so the drop in trip is not totally ideal. Yes, he’s won over this 1m2f trip but those came on the AW and on heavy ground. He’s a player, but certainly no value. Thundering Blue is another that will be popular and is a course and distance winner here. He was around 9 lengths behind Dash Of Spice last time but didn’t have the best of runs that day, while the drop back to 1m2f looks likely to suit him better after getting tired over that longer distance last time. Afaak is another of the more-fancied runners to note but he’s got a big weight (9-7) and is running over this 1m2f trip for the first time. So, having applied the main trends the four we are going to take a chance on are BUZZ, FAYEZ, DAWAALEEB and MORDIN. Buzz heads here having won his last two on the AW and the first of those wins was a 1 ¼ length win over Dash Of Spice. Of course, he’ll have to translate that form to the turf and is 0-from-4 on the grass so far but is also a better horse now that is full of confidence so is worth another chance with only 8-11 to carry. Fayez would require a step-up but this David O’Meara runner has been running consistently all season and is another that should like the step up in trip. Dawaaleeb was a neck winner at Redcar last time out but David Allen is a top jockey booking and should have more to offer with only 9 career runs. Draw 11 looks fine and 8-12 is a nice racing weight. The final pick is Mordin – a horse that has finished in the top two in all of his six career runs. He could still be ahead of the handicapper and actually gets in here off the same mark as when winning last time. Draw 9 means he’s right on the edge of the draw trend – but that’s fine. The final one to note is Across Dubai, mainly because he comes from the William Haggas yard that won this in 2011 and 2013. This 4 year-old had only 8-13 to carry and is also sporting the first-time cheekpieces. A recent third was a step back in the right direction – his only negative possibly being draw 7.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

12.45 – Bet With Ascot Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

Just 4 previous running
4/5 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
4/5 – Carried 8-10 or more
2/5 – Aged 4 years-old
Danzeno (8/1 co-fav) won the race 12 months ago

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A very competitive 5f sprint to get the live action going at Ascot with 20 runners heading to post. Probably not a race to go overboard in and one of those that could come down to fine margins. Therefore, it might just be better to stick with two or three of the in-form runners in the field. Copper Knight and Line Of Reason are two last time out winners in the field that often run well in these competitive sprint handicaps but Copper Knight is up 6lbs from his last win when beaten another runner here – Evergate – however, connections help with the 3lb claimer, Rachel Richardson riding. Line Of Reason is also up 6lbs for his easy 2 ½ length win at Ayr last time but this 8 year-old was rated 100+ last season so off 97 still looks fairly well-treated. Having said that, it’s hard to get away from the rapidly-improving TANASOQ, who has now won his last four! Yes, he’s up another 6lbs in the ratings but has already landed the Epsom Dash this season and followed that up with an easy success at Chester. Draw 11 gives him options and there is every chance that at the age of 5 we’ve not got to the bottom of him yet. The consistent MAJOR JUMBO is another that should be in the mix. Jamie Spencer rides this Kevin Ryan-trained runner that this season is yet to finish out of the top four from six starts.

 

1.20 – Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV

11/11 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/11 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
9/11 – Had won over at least a mile before
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Previous Group race winner
6/11 – Had won at least 4 times before
6/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Aged 4 years-old
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/11 – Had won a Group 1 before
Mutakayyef (7/2 fav) won the race in 2016 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Circus Couture ran a blinder to be third in the Royal Hunt Cup here last month but this is a big step up into Group Two company so more is needed. French raider Trais Fluors won’t just be coming over for a day trip and this Andrew Fabre-trained 4 year-old has run close (3rd) in a Group One over in his homeland this season to warrant respect, but I just wonder if the lightening-quick ground will be too lively for him. Beat The Bank is the top-rated in the field (118) but this Andrew Balding runner is yet to hit the heights of last season. The last run was a bit better when sixth in the Queen Anne here – was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths – but he had Century Dream (4th) and Lord Glitters (2nd) in front of him that day so would need to reverse the form with both. Last year’s Epsom Derby fourth – Eminent – would be a player on that form and it’s interesting connections are dropping him back to a mile after looking very keen over 1m2f this season. Arod in the only course and distance winner in the field and will love the very quick ground. We can expect him to make a bold bid from the front but he often gets found out in this sort of company so might just be setting the race up for one of the closers. With that in mind, step forward LORD GLITTERS. This 5 year-old seems to always finish his races off well and ran on again to get second in the Queen Anne here last month. That form would make him the one to beat and with Arod in the race then things could be set up nicely for him again here. From 11 starts on the turf he’s won four and yet to finish out of the first two so there is every reason to think this classy grey will be right in the thick of things again.

 

 

 

 

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