Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 13th July 2019

Horse racing tips and trends

It’s the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday and the ITV cameras are there to take in the best of the action, plus they are also at York and Ascot on what is a bumper Saturday of flat horse racing.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats – use these to find the best profiles of past winners of each race.

Saturday 13th July 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 – bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/17 – Had won over 7f or further previously
13/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
10/17 – Unplaced in their last race
10/17 – Favourites unplaced
9/17 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
3/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Winning Favourites
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here, including recent CD winner – Akwaan – and Motakhayyel – both from the Hamdam Al Maktoum camp. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding for Mark Johnston too – they team-up with the recent Hamilton scorer Victory Command. The Roger Varian yard have been in top form this week, so their Bayroot is certainly another to note, but another stable in rude health at the moment is John Gosden. With that in mind, their HONEST ALBERT gets the nod here. This 3 year-old is 2-from-2 and actually had Bayroot 1 ½ lengths back in second at Nottingham last time out. Frankie rides for the first time and is expected to uphold that form and looks a horse that could easily progress out of handicap company.


2.55 – Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Won over at least 6f previously
15/17 – Placed in their last race
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/17 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/17 – Won their latest race
11/17 – Won by either a March or April foal
9/17 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
7/17 – Favourites unplaced
4/17 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/17 – Winners from stall 3
4/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/17 – Winning Favourites
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The powerful Aidan O’Brien yard boasts a decent 27% record with their 2 year-olds at the track so their Year Of The Tiger must enter the mix. He was a good Listed winner at Naas last time out over this trip and with that confidence could easily progress. However, he was down the field in the Chesham Stakes to a Charlie Appleby runner so that same yard should have a good idea where they stand with their King’s Command. The yard also boasts a cracking 30% record with their juveniles here and despite running green on debut at HQ still got the job done to win over 6f. The step up to 7f looks a big plus as does his proven track knowledge. A tight call when looking at the rest, with Maxi Boy, Juan Elcano, Wild Thunder and Mystery Power, but the Archie Watson runner SHARED BELIEF (e/w) caught the eye in his Sandown win on ground that might have been a bit on the soft side – he can do best of the others, but they might all have to go to topple the Godolphin runner.

 

3.30 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

16/17 – Won over 7f previously
16/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
13/17 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
11/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
10/17 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
9/17 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
8/17 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/17 – Placed in their last race
4/17 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
Burnt Sugar won the race in 2018
Above The Rest won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Roger Fell-trained Burnt Sugar won this race 12 months ago, but although it’s hard to rule out a past winner of this race, he’s been woefully out-of-form of late. He’s also 3lbs higher than last year and is carrying 6lbs more in weight. The trends suggest looking for horses aged 4 or 5 years-old, that are carrying 9-3 or less in weight, while overall those drawn high have the best recent record. With those stats in mind, the likes of SOLAR GOLD, AMBASSADORIAL, GOOD EFFORT, ADMIRALITY, HAJJAM and ZAP fit the bill. Of that bunch, it’s interesting that last year’s winning trainer and owner have ADMIRALITY (e/w) in the race. This 5 year-old gets in with just 8-13 in weight and draw 17 looks ideal. He’s been running well in similar races and remains on a similar mark. The other of interest from that already mentioned bunch is the Haggas runner – SOLAR GOLD (e/w). This 4 year-old will have options from draw 11 and was a decent third in a Listed race at Chelmsford last time out. The drop back into a handicap will help and James Doyle catches the eye in the saddle. Of the rest, Spanish City, who was a close second in this race last year, can go well again, while course winners Ripp Orf, Crossing The Line, Kynren and Aces are others to note if overcoming their low draws.

 

4.40 – Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners…..

2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010 Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009 Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008 Marchand d’Or (5/2 fav)
2007 Sakhee’s Secret (9/2)
2006 Les Arcs (10/1)
2005 Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004 Frizzante (14/1)
2003 Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002 Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
14/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/17 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
13/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/17 – Placed last time out
9/17 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Irish-trained winners
2/17 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/17 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 4 times before (1999, 2001, 2010 & 2018)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 2016 winner of this race – Limato will be a popular choice again and after a good win last time out here then he’s certainly one for the shortlist. He will, however, need to step up from Group Three level into the top class here and, for me, he seems to be just shy of the highest grade these days with some new kids on the block. Cape Byron was a solid winner of the Wokingham and looks a progressive sprinter, but this is a big leap up in grade – he deserves his chance, but I’d rather see him running at this level first. Aidan O’Brien has a top record in the race so his runners – So Perfect, Fairyland and Ten Sovereigns can’t be overlooked – of that trio the last-named, who was last seen running fourth in the Commonwealth Cup, looks their main hope. However, it’s the winner of that Ascot race – ADVERTISE that gets the nod. This 3 year-old has won 4 of his 5 starts over this 6f trip and the way he powered clear last time suggests he’s as good as ever. He also won the July Stakes here last season so the track is fine and a certain Frankie Dettori does the steering. Of the rest, Dream Of Dreams, will also be popular after a close second to Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last time. He’s a progressive sprinter that is sure to be picking up one of these top races very soon. He beat Glorious Journey a length the time before at Windsor, so also holds that runner on that form line.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Won over 5f before
8/8 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/8 – Rated between 101 and 111
7/8 – Placed favourites
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Had only won at Handicap class before
5/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/8 – Won by a neck or less
5/8 – Won at York before
3/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Ridden by David Allen
Mr Lupton won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some old faces line-up here. We can expect the speedy CASPIAN PRINCE (e/w) to blast out and try and make all for the Mick Appleby yard. Yes, at 10 years-old he’s not getting any younger, but continues to show a love for his racing and that was backed-up with an excellent third at Sandown last time out in a Group Three. The drop in grade will help and he’s also a course winner here – add in that he’s the top-rated in the field, then he’s the one, for me, that the others will have to beat. The consistent Final Venture and Copper Knight should both be thereabouts too, while if you can forgive its last run when down the field at Ascot, then Emblazoned can’t be ruled out either. In his defence that last race was the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes so the ease in grade will help. Of those at bigger prices, the 3 year-olds Little Kim and POETRY look interesting as they get 10lbs off the older horses. The last-named was only just behind Caspian Prince last time out too and is weighted to be close-up to that runner again here.

 

2.40 – John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f ITV

13/13 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
12/13 – Aged 5 or younger
12/13 – Won from stall 10 or lower
10/13 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Had run at York before
5/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/13 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
3/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Dylan Mouth won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The likes of Raheen House, Sea The Lion and Red Verdon will have a say, but the two that standout here are Gold Mount and WEEKENDER. The former is the only proven course and distance winner in the field and heads here off the back off a solid 2 ¼ beating of Raheen House last time out in a Listed race. This rise up in class is fine and it’s hard to crab his chance. However, I just feel the quicker ground here (good-to-soft last time) will out more emphasis on speed, rather than stamina and that might play into Weekender’s hands more. This 5 year-old was also a good winner last time out (Chelmsford) and has only finished out of the top three 3 times from 11 starts on the turf. Okay, his better form might be on the AW, but the quick ground will help today, while this 1m6f looks by far his best distance. Of those at bigger prices, KELLY’S DINO (e/w) was a gutsy winner at Haydock last time and despite needing to step up on that in this better race, at least heads here in winning form. That was only his second run back after a wind op too, so it looks like it’s help eke out a bit more and is worth a crack at this bigger prize.

 

3.15 – John Smith´s Racing Handicap Cl2 1m ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Rated 90 or less
10/15 – Placed last time out
9/15 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
8/15 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Won by a USA-bred horse
4/15 – Had raced at York before
4/15 – Winning favourites
Trainer David O’Meara has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2 or 3
Wadilsafa won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This can go to the David O’Meara yard, that have won 2 of the last 7 runnings. They run the 5 year-old ESCOBAR, who bounced back to form last time out with a top second at Sandown. The form of that race looks solid and off just a pound higher he’s weighted to go close again, so gets the nod here. Just Hiss is the only proven course and distance winner in the field so must command respect based on that, while the consistent Masham Star should not be far away, but seems to be a horse that is placed more that winning these days. Rise Hall has made a good start to the season and should relish the drop back to 1m after not quite seeing out the 1m2f last time and rates a big player too. But the main danger can come from the Richard Fahey runner – CROWNTHORPE (e/w). He won well two runs back but unseated his jockey at the start after stumbling out of the stalls last time. He’ll need to recover from that, but it looks a freak incident and is only 6lbs higher than his last win (2 lengths) – the promising Sean Davis rides and claims a handy 3lbs too.

 

3.50 – John Smith´s Jubilee Cup Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners…….

2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 – Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

16/17 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or higher
13/17 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/17 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 99-105
8/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/17 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Ultra-competitive as always with 22 runners heading to post. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this will help though – meaning those drawn between 1-8 might struggle. Interestingly, one of those is the well-fancied Mountain Angel, who is drawn 3. 88% of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or younger too and even though this applies to most of them, it’s still a negative for Aasheq, Scarlet Dragon, Restorer, Another Touch and Waarif. The top-weight – Afaak – did well to win the Royal Hunt Cup after a 263 day break last month at Ascot and is only 5lbs higher here. He’s a course winner too, but it won’t be easy with a big weight (9-12). Coming here off the back off a good recent run is another good sign – 11 of the last 17 recorded a top four finish last time out. 4 year-olds also have fared well – winning over half of the last (58%) 17 renewals, while trainer William Haggas has often targeted this race with success too. Therefore, I’m happy to side with both his runners in the race – MY LORD AND MASTER (e/w) and BIG KITTEN (e/w). Yes, the first-named will have to overcome the low draw and also a 225 day break, but they are a stable more than capable of getting one ready after a lay-off. This 4 year-old hasn’t quite fulfilled it’s potential yet with just 9 career runs but had also since been gelded and the promising Cieren Fallon is a top booking (claims 5lbs). Their other runner – Big Kitten – is drawn 15 so that’s fine and despite flopping as a beaten favourite last time out at Windsor the drop back in trip will be a help. He gets in off the same mark, but in this better race only has 8-13 to carry and that’s 6lbs less than last time too. Others to note are Setting Sail, from the Godolphin yard, plus the consistent Scarlet Dragon, who is a proven course and distance winner. Buzz looks to be running into form after a solid third at York last time out in a better race and is another to consider.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.45 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

Just 6 previous running
5/6 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
5/6 – Carried 8-10 or more
5/6 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
Danzeno won the race in 2017
Spring Loaded won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Not many past races to go on here, but still a few patterns building-up. Most notably the fact that 5 of the last 6 winners carried 8-10 or more and were also aged between 4-6 years-old. If that’s to be the case again, then bottom six on the card – Blue Vega, Brian The Snail, Line Of Reason, Eeh Bah Gum, Royal Birth and Machree will have that stat to overcome. One that does fit the bill though is the Clive Cox runner – TIS MARVELLOUS (e/w). This 5 year-old is also one of just three proven course and distance winners in the field and ran a blinder to be second in the Wokingham last time out. This looks another tough and competitive race, but he’s only 2lbs higher and his overall track form here at Ascot is decent – 4-6-4-1-2. Of the rest, one of the many Richard Fahey runners in the race – FOOL FOR YOU (e/w) – might also be worth a small interest. This 4 year-old gets in with just 8-11 in weight and is only 4lbs higher for it’s recent win at Newcastle. He looks a sprinter on the up and in-form so can be expected to go well too. Moyassar, Open Wide and Embour are others that shouldn’t be discounted either.

 

4.00 – Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV

12/12 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/12 – Had won over at least a mile before
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
9/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Previous Group race winner
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/12 – Aged 4 years-old
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/12 – Had won a Group 1 before
9 of the last 10 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Beat The Bank won the race in 2018
Mutakayyef won the race in 2016 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Stoute runner – Zaaki – has done little wrong this season, winning both starts. He’s a proven course winner too but does need to find a bit more again now upped in grade. Accidental Agent is the joint top-rated in the field and despite refusing to start in the Queen Anne last time out would be a big player at a venue we know he likes. Matterhorn will come here full of confidence after an easy Listed race win at Windsor. But stepping up again in grade, I just wonder if he’s up to it. Suedois, Dream Castle and Wadilsafa are others to note, but I think this can go to last year’s winner – BEAT THE BANK. He was last seen running an excellent second in the Queen Anne here – beaten just a neck and that is the best recent form on show. The quicker ground is fine and the last four times he’s been dropped into a Group Two – he’s won!!

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