Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 13th Jan 2018

Kempton and Warwick horse racing tips

As long as the weather holds out then the ITV cameras have plenty of action for us this Saturday with LIVE racing from Kempton and Warwick. The Classic Chase is the main event at Warwick – a race the Lucinda Russell-trained One For Arthur took before going onto Aintree Grand National glory – so it’s certainly a contest to note for the season ahead.

At Kempton we’ve four LIVE races to take in that include the Lanzarote Hurdle – since 1980 32 of the 36 renewals have been won by a horse aged 7 or younger.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!


 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
3/4 – Had won over fences at the track
3/4 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
3/4 – Had won at least 5 times over fences
3/4 – Winning favourites
3/4 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 32% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 4 from 45 (9%) with her chasers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four previous runnings of this, but some fair trainer stats building up, including the Nicky Henderson yard having won the last two runnings. They try again with Josses Hill and this former course and distance winner looks to have a leading chance. He was a good second to the classy Top Notch in the Peterborough Chase last time out and this slight drop in grade should make life easier. The Henderson yard also boast an impressive 32% record at the track with their chasers. Popular grey Smad Place will attract interest too, but he was well behind Top Notch at Ascot last time at Ascot so on a strict form-line with that horse has a bit to find with Josses Hill. However, the return to Kempton – he’s another course and distance winner – and the fact he’s still the clear highest-rated in the field on 163 gives makes him hard to ignore. Those against him will look to the fact he’s won just one of his last 8 races. The Paul Nicholls-trained Art Mauresque has past form to go well, but after being pulled-up and falling recently is on a bit of a recovery mission. So,of the main runners that leaves us with WAITING PATIENTLY who is certainly a horse on the up. Trained by the shrewd Malcolm Jefferson camp he’s 4-from-4 over fences so far and don’t forget he beat Politologue at Haydock around this time last year. He’s only been seen once since, when winning at Carlisle back in November, but he did it nicely that day to continue his rise up the chasing ranks. He’s rated 6lbs higher than Josses Hill, but gets 2lbs off that Henderson horse, while despite having 7lbs to find with Smad Place he receives 2lbs, plus at just 7 years-old he’s got youth and potential improvement still on his side. The consistent Gods Own is another big player. This 163-rated 10 year-old is a stalwart in these sort of races and was placed in some top contests last year. He should find this easier, however, with no wins in his last seven that would be a worry, while he was well behind Smad Place last time at Aintree, albeit on his first run back.

 

2.40 – 32Red.com Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before
11/16 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/16 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/16 – Irish (5) or French (5) bred
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
9/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Had run at Kempton before (4 won)
5/16- Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (36 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Plenty of trends to get stuck into here, most notably with 15 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or younger, while ALL of the last 16 winners had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before. Trainer Nick Williams has a good record in the race so if running his entries Man From Mars and Dentley De Mee shouldn’t be overlooked. Paul Nicholls is another yard to note and at this stage have TOPOFTHEGAME (e/w) engaged, with this 6 year-old looking very interesting. Yes, he took a tumble last time out at Newbury, but was travelling well at the time and looked sure to run a big race. The yard has given him a few months to recover from that and with just four career outings there should be a lot more to come. Nicky Henderson’s Diese Des Bieffes is another to consider after running the classy If The Cap Fits to 5 lengths here last time out. This 5 year-old has only had four career runs so is another with more improvement to come, while the Seven Barrows yard have history in the race, winning it in 2006 and 2013 – they also have WILLIAM HENRY (e/w), who would enter the mix on last season’s hurdling form. He didn’t quite take to fences last time at Cheltenham so we can put a line through that, but from his four runs over hurdles he’s won two and finished second twice. The promising James Bowen also assists in the weight department by taking 5lbs off his hefty 11-12. Proven course and distance winners, Bags Groove and River Frost, are others that are sure to be popular too. The last-named head here after good wins at Aintree and Kempton and this improving 7 year-old is up just 5lbs for the last of those wins and has fair form with give underfoot. River Frost certainly has the form to take this and was a fair 9th in the Coral Cup last March at Cheltenham and it’s worth pointing out he’s 2-from-2 here at Kempton – he looks a big player. Of the rest, Le Patriote gets in here with a light weight, while Spiritofthegames and Coeur Blimey look likely to go well from those at slightly bigger prices and rate fair each-way options.

 

3.15 – 32Red.com Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just five previous runnings
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had run at the track before
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
4/5 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/5- Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
4/5 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
4/5 – Carried 11-0 or more
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
3/5 – Placed favourites
2/5 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/5 – Winning favourites years is 5/1
The average winning SP in the last 5
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 30 with her chasers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The obvious call is the Antony Honeyball-trained FOUNTAINS WINDFALL, but he comes with a fair amount of risk after falling the last twice. Having said, that his win three starts ago was a decent effort and had been going well in his last two races when coming to grief. He’s clearly none-the-worse for these tumbles, but with 4 of the last 5 winners aged 8 or 9 then this 8 year-old ticks that key age trend – he might just be worth giving another chance too. The older runners – On Tour and Ballyalton – are experienced rivals and should run their races but are not getting any younger and also have that key age trend to overcome. The Young Master would also enter calculations on old form and off a mark of 142 is starting to look well-handicapped. However, he’s seven runs without a win now and has also failed to complete in three of his last seven. Morning Reggie, who gets plenty of weight from the others, makes up the six runners.

 

3.45 – 32Red.com Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

9/9 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/9 – Aged 6 or older
8/9 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/9 – Aged 6 years-old
7/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Returned a double-figure price
1/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nicky Henderson-trained Jenkins has so far failed to live up to his tall reputation so despite having decent form that would see him win this easily he’s overlooked until he can be more consistent on the track. However, the Henderson camp also have CHARMING ZEN and this unbeaten 6 year-old might be worth chancing. Formerly with the Dan Skelton yard this French-bred was an easy winner of a novice hurdle at Doncaster last February, but has not been seen since. Yes, the softer ground is a slight unknown, but he’s won on good-to-soft in France. He’ll have the promising James Bowen claiming a handy 5lbs too and with connections clearly thinking he’s up to this level on just his third start then he could be yet another promising sort for the powerful Seven Barrows yard. Don Bersey would be interesting if finding his form of last season, but two lack-lustre efforts so far this term suggest he’s got a big to find. One For Billy and Viserion are others to note.

 

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Betfred Home Of Goals Galore Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

10/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
10/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
8/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
7/10 – Aged 7 years-old
6/10 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
6/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Trained by Alan King
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The consistent DUEL AT DAWN is sure to be thereabouts if running after his decent second last time out at Cheltenham and has been freshened-up with around a month off. He had another runner here – Flintham – 16 lengths back in second a few starts ago and should have the measure of that one again. His 6 length second Sizing Tennessee at Cheltenham last time was a top effort in defeat and the slight drop back in trip from 3m1 ½f to 3m looks in his favour after just getting a tad tired last time in the closing stages. He looks the safest call in a trappy looking contest. Ms Parfois is a proven course winner and heads here in-form after two good wins and with 7 of the last 10 winners aged 7 years-old this mare ticks that trend too and getting weight from the others commands respect. The 144-rated Big River is better than his recent run at Haydock when pulled-up so is another to consider for the Lucinda Russell yard, who are staring to fire in the winners again. Western Climate makes up the five runners and is certainly no back number. This 9 year-old has won his last two in decent fashion, but is up significantly in grade here so would require another step forward.

 

2.25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

12/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/12 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/12 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
9/12 – Officially rated between 126-142
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/12 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/12 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 7 winners were aged 8 or younger
Tobefair (9/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Jonjo O’Neill yard have a fair record in this race so their runners – Join The Clan and Cobolobo – shouldn’t be overlooked and with 10 of the last 12 winners carrying 11-0 or less then both fit the bill on this age trend too. 10 of the last 12 winners also raced in the last 5 weeks, while despite billed as a trial for the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, 10 of the last 12 winners went onto be unplaced in that race. Tobefair took this race 12 months ago and lines-up again, but since his rise up the ranks last season this horse looks to be in the handicapper’s grip now and also races off a 12lb higher mark than last year. 6 of the last 7 winners were aged 8 or younger, so take that into account, while 9 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter to suggest you don’t have to look too far down the market to find the winner. No Hassle Hoff can be expected to run well, while The Organist and Sykes returned to form last time to enter the mix. Prime Venture is another to consider after a smooth win at Ffos Las last time. He’s only 7 years-old so should have more to offer. He is up a big-looking 12lbs for that win though and with 11-12 in these conditions it won’t be easy. On a plus, connections offset 7lbs of that with the jockey’s claim. However, taking all these trends into account the one that stands out is BLACK IVORY (e/w). This Malcolm Jefferson runner is up 6lbs for a recent 6 length win at Aintree, but connections offset 3lbs of that with the jockey’s claim and he still gets in here with a light weight. Ground is fine and the step back up in trip is also within range after running a close second over 3m two starts ago. The already mentioned Jonjo O’Neill pair of COBOLOBO (e/w) and JOIN THE CLAN (e/w) are worth a small interest too.

 

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Leamington Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
11/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/11 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7/11 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
7/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Aged 5 years-old
2/11 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising sorts on show here and it’s a race that might give us some more Cheltenham Festival clues – in the last 11 runnings the race has produced two Festival winners. One horse that has caught the eye this season is COUNT MERIBEL, who looked to have the race in the bag last time, only to get collared up the hill at Cheltenham. Therefore, the drop back from 3m there to 2m5f here is a big plus and with 4 weeks to get over that this Nigel Twiston-Davies runner heads here with a big shout – his normal pilot, Mark Grant, gets the leg-up again. Paisley Park, Cave Top and Knight In Dubai are others to note, but the main danger to the selection looks to be from Mr Whipped. This looks another potentially smart Nicky Henderson runner that has won his last three, with the most-recent of those being a smooth 3 length win at Newbury. More is required upped in grade but the yard will know where they stand with this one and they clearly think he’s up to this – with just three career runs there should be more on offer.

 

3.35 – Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

12/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/12 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
9/12 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
8/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/12 – Officially rated between 129-140
8/12 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
7/12 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
7/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/12 – Won by an Irish bred horse
7/12 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price
4/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 10.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Don’t forget 12 months this race was given a massive boost as the winner – One For Arthur – wen onto boost the form by winning the Aintree Grand National – so, will we be seeing another Merseyside marathon winner this year? With ALL of the last 12 winners of the Classic Chase having raced in the last 6 weeks then of the 15 runners this is bad news for Sir Mangan and Indian Castle. In fact, if you want to take this trend a step further you’ll notice that 11 of the last 12 winners actually ran within the last 5 weeks – if this is to be repeated, the likes of Missed Approach, Cogry and Crosspark are others that have this to overcome. 9 of the last 12 winners (75%) were aged between 7-9 years-old and also carried 11-1 or less in weight. Of those carrying 11-1 or less we’ve actually only four runners – Krackatoa King, Indian Castle & Russe Blanc. We’ve already ruled out Indian Castle based on not running in the last 6 weeks, so the other two have to enter calculations. Kerry Lee’s Russe Blanc is also a proven course and distance winner at the track and is a massive 9lbs lower than when running 9th in this 12 months ago. However, with just one win from his last 15 races and at the age of 11 he’s got a bit to prove. The 10 year-old KRACKATOA KING (e/w) is more interesting though and also hails from the Kerry Lee yard. This consistent sort is another course winner and from his 12 chase starts has only been out of the first three twice. He’s up just 2lbs for a recent close second at Wincanton, but seems to relish soft/heavy conditions and is well worth a crack up in trip. The promising Richard Patrick, who rode him last time, also takes off a handy 5lbs. Emperor’s Choice is another that loves these extreme trips and despite falling last time in the Welsh National that came early on and is clearly none the worse for that. Before that tumble he won well at Haydock and is only 7lbs higher here – but this will be his third race in the last three Saturdays. Missed Approach and Sir Mangan will figure well in the betting but with small lay-offs to overcome and a lot of weight each then don’t look great value. So, the other horse that catches the eye is the Evan Williams-trained ON THE ROAD (e/w). This 8 year-old unseated at the 4th fence in the Welsh National last time so it was too early to tell what he’d have done that day. However, from his six chase starts he’s been in the top two in them all barring that unseat last time and with just 11-3 gets in with one of the lower weights. Yes, the step up in trip is an unknown, but what we do know is that he handles the ground. At 8 years-old he’s the same age as last year’s winner and that also means there should be more to come. Jockey Adam Wedge is also back in the saddle (didn’t ride last time) and so far his recent stats on the horse read an impressive 1-1-1-2.

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