Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 11th Aug 2018

Free horse racing tips and trends

This week the ITV4 cameras are at Ascot racecourse for their popular Shergar Cup meeting. This unique fixture splits the horses in each race into four teams – Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, Rest Of The World and Girls – with each horse being allocated team points based on their finishing positions. It’s a ‘love it, or hate it’ format but is now a regular on the calendar each summer – so who will come out on top in 2018?

As well as Ascot, the ITV cameras are also at Newmarket and Haydock to take in three more races with the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Haydock) and the Sweet Solera Stakes (Newmarket) their feature races.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!

 

Saturday 11th August 2018

ASCOT Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1:05 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

10/10 – Failed to win their last race
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/10 – Raced at Ascot previously
9/10 – Carried 9-3 or more weight
9/10 – Had 4 or more runs that season
9/10 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
8/10 – Won at least 3 times in their career
7/10 – Favourites  placed
6/10 – Had won over 5f previously
5/10 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/10 – Favourites (1 joint)
4/10 – Winning distance – 1 or more lengths
3/10 – Trained by Robert Cowell (including 2 of the last 4 runnings)
2/10 – Won by the Andrew Balding yard
2 of the last 10 winners came from stall 11
Stake Acclaim (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Robert Cowell yard – winning the prize in two of the last four years – they are mob-handed with Sir Robert Cheval, Evergate and Encore D’Or. All three command respect but it’s EVERGATE that I’m most interested in. This 9 of the last 10 winners of this race were aged 4 or 5 so this 4 year-old ticks that trend and also ran into form last time out when a close second over this course and distance a few weeks ago. He’s up just 2lbs for that but is a horse that has also handled a bit of cut so if the recent rain does get into the ground that would be fine too. Add in that he’s run here at Ascot three times and been second twice so clearly acts well at the venue. Cowell’s SIR ROBERT COWELL might be worth a saver too as he was a close second in the race 12 months ago. He’s rated just a pound higher than last year but only went down a neck that day and after a 49 day break since his last run connections have clearly had this race as a firm target. Of the rest, Just Glamorous is the only proven course and distance winner in the field, while the consistent El Astronaute can be expected to be in the mix but after five runs without a win might just be in the handicapper’s grip now.

 

1.40 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) Cl2 2m ITV4

13/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Carried 8-13 or more
11/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/14 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
11/14 – Rated between 86-94
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before (flat)
11/14 – Had raced at the track before
10/14 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Goodwood (5) last time out
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams
1/14 – Won last time out
Euchen Glen (7/1) won the race in 2017
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 9
Horses from stall 9 placed in the top three in 6 of the last 11 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Ian Williams yard won this race in 2011 and 2012 – they try again here with three entries – Saunter, Stars Over The Sea and Byron Flyer. Of that trio, Byron Flyer was runner-up in the race last year so must be respected based on that but is 3lbs higher this time and heads here with a bit to prove after a few below-par runs recently. It’s probably just a coincidence that six of the last 11 horses from stall 9 have been placed (2 winners) as this race is run over 2m. However, it still might be foolish to overlook and it’s actually one of the Williams horses – SAUNTER – that has that draw this time. This 5 year-old also ticks the main age trend and is the only recent winner in the field. He dotted-up by an easy 5 lengths in France last time over 1m6f and looks worth a crack over this longer 2m trip. Any more rain would be a plus too and having finished in the top three in 50% of his 18 starts on the turf then he’s generally a consistent sort. Of the rest, trainer Andrew Balding likes to do well at this meeting so his Cleonte is another to consider, while Hassle and Manjaam are the two proven course winners in the field. Of that bunch, CLEONTE looks the most interesting after running a fine sixth in the JLT Cup at Newbury over 2m and prior to that was only beaten 6 lengths in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting over 2m4f. Staying won’t be an issue for this 5 year-old, who gets in here with 9st-6lbs and will receive weight from all the others bar Fire Jet.

 

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Officially rated between 87-94
12/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
12/14 – Won over 1m3f (or further) previously
11/14 – Won between 1-4 times previously
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
6/14 – Had run at Ascot previously
6/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/14 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
2/14 – Favourites that won
Great Hall (12/1) won the race in 2017
No winners from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With three of the last 12 winners coming from stall 5 then Eddystone Rock will be trying to uphold that trend, but with 9 of the last 12 winners hailing from stalls 5-8 then this could be a good place to start – Eddystone Rock, The Glasgowwarrior (res), West Coast Flyer and Koeman are the ones in question. Of that quartet, it’s Koeman that heads here in-form with a win here over this course and distance, but a 4lb rise for that neck win will make life harder. The other concern would be that Channon is only 2 from 47 (4%) with his older horses at the track. Machine Learner was a nice winner at the track over 1m6f last time but a combination of a 5lb higher mark and this drop in trip mean this is a different test here. Trainer David Simcock has two in the race – West Coast Flyer and Majeed – of the two Majeed was a good winner last time at Windsor and can be expected to go well again off just a pound higher. Balding has a runner too – Twin Star – that can go well, but the two I like here are MAORI BOB and HUMBLE HERO. The Bell team do well at the track and their runner here – Maori Bob – can improve for the step back up in trip. He was staying on over 1m2f last time at HQ and has hit the top three in all his five races this season. Humble Bob is another consistent sort that hails from the in-form William Haggas yard. They are operating on a 25% strike-rate with their runners at the moment. This 4 year-old is yet to win this term but has been tried over a variety of trips that range from 1m3f to 2m, while it’s interesting the first-time blinkers are on this time too. He’s closely-matched with Majeed after finishing 1 ½ lengths third to that horse at Windsor in June but with the blinkers expected to bring out a bit more and his proven stamina then the stiff Ascot track looks sure to suit. 

 

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

14/14 – Won over at least a mile before
14/14 – Failed to win last time out
14/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/14 – Rated between 92-100
13/14 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Won between 2-4 times before
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/14 – Had run at Ascot before
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/14 – Winning favourites
Raising Sand (10/1) won the race in 2018
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 1
10 or the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tight-looking race. 13 of the last 14 winners were aged between 4 and 5 years-old so of the runners there are a few that fall down – Majestic Moon (res), Mythical Madness and Shady McCoy, who are all too old. ALL of the last 14 winners failed to win last time out too – so that’s a negative for Red Tea and Medahim – while it’s generally been a good race for those at the head of the market with 12 of the last 14 winners coming from the top three in the betting. With the Stuart Williams (25%) and William Haggas (25%) yards having their runners in good order at the moment then their runners Via Serendipity and Across Dubai can’t be ruled out. However, the two that I’m going to put up here are FIRE BRIGADE and BLESS HIM. The first-named was pulled out last on last weekend after not going in the stalls at Goodwood. He was well-fancied that day though and should be a lot fitter for his return run at Newcastle in June. He was only beaten just over 3 lengths that day and that was also just his second run back after a wind op. He’s yet to win at the track but his two runs here read well – second and third – so the track clearly suits. The David Simcock-trained Bless Him is another that we know likes the track being a past winner here. He was a fair 9th in the Hunt Cup at the Royal Meeting in June but is 3lbs lower this time. He landed the Britannia Stakes here in 2017 too, while with just nine career runs there’s every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet.

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl3 1m4f – ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/9 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/9 – Won over 1m2f or further previously
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
6/9 – Officially rated between 84-90
4/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/9 – Favourites placed
2/9 – Favourites that won
2/9 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/9 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Danehill Kodiac (8/1) won the race in 2017
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard have targeted this race with success in recent years – winning two of the last three runnings and they look to have another leading chance this year with Sergio Leone. This 3 year-old has been second the last twice and is one for the shortlist but is up another 4lbs here so is creeping up the weights despite winning. We’ve another for the in-form Stuart Williams yard – Bajan Gold – and this horse looks sure to play a leading role after running a close second over course and distance last time out – he is up 3lbs though. Mark Johnston is another yard that has done ok in the race – winning it in 2010 and 2013 so their consistent Bayshore Freeway might attract support. Gossip Column has won three of it’s last four, including last time out at Chester but the time before was beaten here at Ascot so would have some track questions to answer for me – he’s also up another 3lbs. The call though is for the John Gosden yard, who have a 26% strike-rate with their runners at the time of writing. They run Corelli, who is a lightly-raced 3 year-old that’s had just four runs. He was a fair third in the Lingfield Derby Trial back in May and I suspect is better than that. He won well the time before at Yarmouth with give so any more rain is a plus too. Connections have taken their time with him but after also did have a few excuses the last day after not having the best start and also pulling a bit hard. He looks progressive and a typical Gosden horse that could easily turn out to be better than a handicapper. Of the rest, Jazeel won well last time but of those at a bigger price BERKSHIRE BLUE is also worth a small interest. This will be a lot easier than the Group Three he ran in last time but before that dotted-up at Wolves over this trip. He’ll need to settle better but is another that’s lightly-raced and should have more to offer now into handicaps.

 

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl2 6f ITV4

14/14 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
13/14 – Ran within the last 4-5 weeks
13/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/14 – Won between 2-3 times previously
12/14 – Won over 6f previously
12/14 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
10/14 – Officially rated between 86-95
10/14 – Came from the top three in the betting market
10/14 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
9/14 – Favourites placed
6/14 – Had run at Ascot previously
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Won by the Roger Charlton yard
3/14 – Winning Favourites
Golden Apollo (4/1) won the race in 2017
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tricky final race. The Nigel Tinkler yard is going great guns at present with a 26% strike-rate with their runners so their ROUNDHAY PARK looks interesting. He was an excellent third at Newmarket last time out in a decent 20-runner handicap and gets in here off the same mark. He’s won 4 of his 11 career starts and only been out of the first three four times. This will be his first run at the track but there is no reason to think it won’t suit. He did finish 4 lengths behind another runner – SHAHEEN – back in June so this John Quinn runner is also sure to be popular. He’s since progressed by running a close second at HQ and winning at Windsor earlier this month. He’s only been out of the first three once from 11 starts on the turf and a 3lb rise for the latest of his wins looks fair enough. He’s a horse that knows how to get the job done with 5 wins, plus the Quinn yard are operating at a decent 28% strike-rate at the time of writing. George Of Hearts was a fair 9th in the Britannia Stakes here in June and is certainly a big player but might not be much value. The Haggas runner – Ertiyad – can’t be overlooked coming from this powerful yard but will need to put a few poor runs behind it. Finally, Clive Cox (2 from 44), Richard Hannon (6 from 133) and Mick Channon (1 from 25) have poor records with their 3 year-olds at the track so their Snazzy Jazzy, Tangled and Helvetian have these stats to overcome.

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.55 – Smarkets Haydock Park Ladies´ Trophy Handicap (Pro-Am Lady Riders´ Race) Cl3 1m3f200y ITV4

Only two previous runnings
Azari (12/1) won the race in 2017
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer has a 28% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We’ve a rare runner on the flat for trainer Paul Nicholls here too with Birds Of Prey and he’s not without a chance after two close fourths at Kempton. He’s had around 3 months off but has gone well fresh and daughter Megan is a plus in the saddle for this Ladies’ race. The return to the turf looks a plus too as he’s raced seven times on the grass and only been out of the top three twice (2 wins). Play It Cool is another to note but the first call here is for the Michael Dodds-trained MISTER BELVEDERE. This 4 year-old was a fair second to Pacify last time at York but that was a slightly better race so the drop in grade will help. He gets in off the same mark and as long at the ground remains on the quick side looks to hold a fair chance. Trainer Iain Jardine often does well with his older horses at the track (20%) so if running his Atkinson Grimshaw commands respect, while another trainer that does well at the track is Hugo Palmer – he’s got a 28% record with this 3 year-olds here. So, his RASHDAN looks as if there could be more to come. He’s only raced four times but has won two of those and looked to have improve again last time when winning at Newcastle over 1m2f. This is a step up and he’ll need to prove himself on the grass (0 from 2 so far) but he’s lightly-raced and also gets a 3 year-old allowance off the older horses.

 

3.05 – Smarkets Betting Exchange Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f95y ITV4

15/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/15 – Yet to run at Haydock
13/15 – Favourites placed
13/15 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
12/15 – Won a Listed or better class race before
11/15 – Won over 1m2f or further
11/15 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
11/15 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
10/15 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
10/15 – Won 3 or more times during their career
9/15 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Finished unplaced in their last race
4/15 – Favourites that won
3/15 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/15 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Frankuus (8/1) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard have won this race in 2009 and also last year so anything they run should always be respected. At this stage they could have their in-form Communique heading to post – a horse that has won well at Newmarket and Goodwood of late and the manner of victory of last time suggests there is more to come, despite being up from handicap company into a Group Three here. However, the two that catch the eye here are Elwazir and ZAAKI, with slight preference for the later. Elwazir has done little wrong though in winning his last two in decent fashion but this is a step up in class with those victories coming in handicaps. The trip and quick ground are pluses and being a 3 year-old gets a handy 9lbs off most of the older horses. However, Zaaki is also aged 3 so this 108-rated colt also has a bit in-hand based on the weights. He’s closely-matched with Zaaki after running that Johnston horse to a short-head at HQ last time and prior to that ran a solid race to be third in the Hampton Court (G3). From the Stoute team that have won this race twice in the last 15 years too, and so far this season he’s yet to finish out of the top three from four starts. Brorocco, Teodoro, Fajjaj and Gabrial make up the field and are certainly no back numbers, especially the 109-rated 3 year-old Fajjaj, who comes from the Hugo Palmer team that do so well with this age group at the track (28%). A recent close third in a Listed race at Sandown was another step in the right direction and like the other 3 year-olds in the race will get a handy 9lb weight allowance from the older horses.

 

NEWMARKET (JULY) Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

3.45 – german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

14/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
13/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting market
13/15 – Won just once previously
13/15 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/15 – Had won over only 6f previously
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Won their last race
9/15 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
8/15 – Raced at Newmarket (5) or Sandown (3) last time out
7/15 – Had just one previous run
7/15 –  Favourites that won
5/15 – Won by Godolphin
4/15 – Won over 7f previously
3/15 – Trained by the Hills stable
Tajaanus (10/1) won the race in 2017
2 winners from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
4 of the last 11 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Godolphin, Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston all have good records in this race but it might pay to side with the John Gosden runners – PENNYWHISTLE. This 2 year-old is one of the more lightly-raced in the field with just two career runs but it’s her last victory that makes her the most interesting. She was beaten only a length on debut to the subsequent Listed winner Look Around but has clearly progressed since when winning here over course and distance. Hannon’s Ajrar and Godolphin’s La Pelosa were second and third behind Look Around at Sandown a few weeks ago but I just feel the Gosden horse has progressed more. Frankie has also been booked to ride and we also know the trip and track suit. She also ticks most of the main trends, so everything looks in place for a big run. California Love is another proven CD winner here three weeks ago. She did it well that day (just under 4 lengths) so there should be more to come despite this being a harder grade. Of the rest, the Johnston-trained Main Edition would certainly be feared is making the final entries. She beat La Pelosa by a neck in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and her last run in the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes can be ignored as she was badly hampered. This step up to 7f would be an unknown with all her racing coming over 6f but has run as if it’ll suit. Johnston also runs Accordance, who was a decent winner at Goodwood last week and makes a quick reappearance in this better race. Finally, Hannon could also have the once-raced Alhakmah in the contest and made a fair impression when second on debut at Goodwood last week – running on well over 6f to suggest this 7f trip will be ideal.

 

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