Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: Sat 22nd Dec 2018

Ascot and Haydock Free Horse Racing Tips

It’s the last Saturday action before Christmas Day, but with a bumper day ahead on Boxing Day (we’ll be covering that too) then there’s plenty to look forward to over the festive period.

We’ve decent cards at Ascot and Haydock first this Saturday to take in, with six races spread across the two venues. The Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot is their feature race. While at Haydock the Tommy Whittle Chase is always a decent spectacle that might give us a few clues ahead of the Grand National – did you know ALL of the last 11 Tommy Whittle Chase winners failed to win their last race?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – My Pension Expert Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
Mr Medic won the race in 2017
Poker School won the race in 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2015
No winning favourite in 3 runnings
All winners returned between 6/1 and 10/1
All winners aged between 4-7 years-old

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only three previous runnings of this race. Paul Nicholls took the prize in 2015 so anything he runs should be noted – at this stage he’s got Magic Saint, who was a fair second last time out at Haydock, entered. De Dollar Man has been running consistently, while Born Survivor has won two on his last three and enters the mix too. We can expect better from Hell’s Kitchen as he should have come on for his return outing last month, but it might be worth taking a chance on the Nicky Henderson runner – JANIKA – here. This 5 year-old has won his last three over in France (fences) and looks another potentially useful recruit to the Seven Barrows team. The yard boasts an impressive 27% record with their chasers at the track too, plus the stable remain in good order as we head into the busy Xmas period.

 

2.25 – JLT Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
16/16 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (5 won, 4 runners-up)
14/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/16 – French-bred horse
12/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/16 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
11/16 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
10/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/16 – Favourites that won
9/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017
Unowhatimeanharry (6/5 fav) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We finally get a chance to see the Henderson-trained Call Me Lord back on the track – he’s had several entries in recent weeks but for various reason has not shown up. It’s no secret he prefers to go right-handed – which he’ll get here – and having won 5 of his 9 hurdles starts then he’s a horse with a lot of potential. He’s up to 3m for the first time and there is no reason why it won’t suit – he won by 16 lengths last April over 2m5 1/2f, so the extra yardage looks within range. It is worth noting though that 11 of the last 16 winners of this race has already won over at least 3m (hurdles) – Henderson will be looking for only his second win in the race. He’s a big player. Agrapart is another useful staying hurdler that will love the soft ground. He’s not an easy horse to win with though with just one win from his last 8 and you also feel he’s even better in heavy conditions – therefore, any more rain would help his chance. Paisley Park has caught the eye this season with two smooth wins, but you’d think he’d need a slight step forward again here. Last year’s winner – Sam Spinner – can’t be ruled out either but he’s not won a race since taking this 12 months ago and flopped at both Aintree and Cheltenham last season – he was also beaten when unseating in the Long Distance Hurdle last time out so does seem to have a bit to prove – maybe the return to Ascot will help do that! We’ve also got the 2016 winner of this race – UNOWHATIMEMEANHARRYgoing again and despite his advancing years gets the call. Yes, at 10 years-old he falls down on the main age trend but Deano’s Beano in 2002 should it’s possible to win this race at 10. After a few average seasons the Fry camps persistence paid off last time out when he returned to form to win the Long Distance Hurdle last month at Newbury and that looks the best form on show. Yes, Call Me Lord looks a horse with a lot of potential and rates a serious danger but with a slight question mark over the trip then I’ll stick with ‘Harry’ to deliver another knockout blow in this race.

 

3.00 – Garrard Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/13 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/13 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
7/13 – Won by a French bred horse
7/13 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
6/13 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/13 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
5/13 – Aged 7 years-old
4/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Favourite (1 joint)
2/13 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of the last 4)
Gold Present won the race in 2017
Regal Encore (20/1) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Houblon Des Obeaux won this race in 2013 and could line-up again at the age of 11, while last year’s winner – Gold Present – could also go again. This Henderson runner was a fair third to the classy Politologue here last time out and should be a lot better for that. He’s only 5lbs higher than last year too so can go well on what will only be his second run back after a wind op. Thomas Patrick disappointed at Newbury in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time so despite being one for the shortlist if running does need to bounce back. Otago Trail and The Last Samuri are dour stayers that will be plugging on – if conditions get any worse that will help their chance. I feel the Gary Moore-trained Benatar is better than what he’s shown so far this season and has won twice over fences here at Ascot – he’ll need to prove he gets the longer trip though. Acting Lass would be interesting if running – he won three of his 4 races last season and should be better for a break. Paul Nicholls has two live chances too with the lightly-weighted Favorito Buck’s and ART MAURESQUE (e/w) and it might be worth taking a chance on the last-named. Yes, he flopped in the Peterborough Chase last time out but this step back up in trip will help and also has Lorcan Williams, who claims 5lbs, back riding. He was a close second over this trip here in November and it’s interesting that connections are turning him out again so quickly after that recent below-par run.

 

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
15/15 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Had raced within the last 2 months
10/15 – Carried 10-10 or more
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
8/15 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Wow, a super competitive final race at Ascot. ALL of the last 15 winners were aged between 4-7 years-old so that helps whittle down the 21 runners a bit with six aged 8 or older. 10 of the last 15 carried 10-10 or more so the bottom seven on the card – from Lord Napier down – have this to overcome too. Alan King looks to have two big chances with Fidux and Lisp, who have both been running well of late. Man Of Plenty, Fiesole and Grand Sancy are certainly others to note that all won well last time out, while Nietzsche was a good winner of the Greatwood Hurdle last time but is up 6lbs for that here. Barry Geraghty is an interesting booking for the Colin Tizzard-trained Cyrus Darius and is certainly better than he showed last time. However, the tentative call here is to side with WESTERN RYDER (e/w) and MONT DES AVALOIRS (e/w). The first-named will have every assistance in the saddle with Richard Johnson riding and looks to be coming to the boil after a fair third at Cheltenham last time out in the International Hurdle. He’s a course winner and back into a handicap looks interesting. The other pick is a consistent sort that has won twice over hurdles from only 7 starts. He was an excellent second last time at Newbury to the useful Global Citizen and looks another that is starting to hit form after two runs this season. A 3lbs rise for that last run looks fair while he’s a horse that handles soft and heavy conditions well.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – £50 Risk Free On Racing With Smarkets Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV

11/11 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Had won 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
6/11 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (4) last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
5/11 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Winning Favourites
2/11 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Chti Balko can go well for the Dan Skelton yard but it might not be easy carrying 11-12 in these conditions. If running, then Ballymoy, Windsor Avenue and Always Resolute are others to consider but the Nicky Richards yard are in cracking form of late (8 from their last 16 at the time of writing) so it might be worth chancing their BETTER GETALONG. This 7 year-old is returning from a break but is sure to be well-forward and as pointed out the stable could not be in much better form. He’s only had 7 runs over hurdles so will have more to offer and showed a decent level of form last season as a novice.

 

2.40 – SmarketsTommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

11/11 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
11/11 – Failed to win their last race
9/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/11 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
7/11 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
7/11 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/11 – Favourites placed
5/11 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
3/11 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/11 – French bred
3/11 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
2/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/11 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
6 of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or more
Captain Redbeard won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Deauville Dancer and Kimberlite Candy were both nice winners last time out and are sure to be popular if making the final line-up. However, with 9 of the last 11 winners aged 7 or 8 years-old then these could be the ones to focus on – Testify, Duel At Dawn, Deauville Dancer, Sharp Response, Whoshitwho, Clan Legend and Ballyarthur. Of that bunch, TESTIFY should be a lot better for his recent return run at Newcastle but is 2-from-2 here at Haydock so coming back here is plus – he’s certainly one for the shortlist if running. However, another that catches the eye is DUEL AT DAWN, who we last saw being pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival in the Challenge Cup. That came over 4m so the drop back in trip will help and despite a long lay-off this 8 year-old is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. From five runs over fences he’s only been out of the top two twice and handles soft ground well.

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