Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 23rd March 2019

Newbury and Kelso racing tips and trends

Another busy day this Saturday with the ITV4 cameras at Newbury and Kelso – we’ve seven races across the two venues to take in.

As always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got it all covered from a trends angle.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase Cl3 3m2f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/8 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
7/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
6/8 – Had won over 2m7f (or further) before (fences)
5/8 – Aged 9 years-old
5/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
4/8 – Had raced over fences at Newbury before
4/8 – Irish bred
1/8 – Winning favourites
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: There has been a fair amount of support during midweek for the Richard Hobson-trained CHIC NAME. This 7 year-old gets in here with just 10-11 in weight and also has the promising Jonjo O’Neill Jnr taking off another 5lbs. He’s dropped back down to around a previous winning mark after not staying the 3m6f trip last time had an excuse. He’s a course winner here at Newbury too around this time of the year in 2017, while some might recall him running 5th in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival last year – beaten just 18 lengths to Tiger Roll. Course winner, Joe Farrell, plus the in-form pair of Strong Pursuit and Classic Ben are others that are sure to be popular based on recent performances.

 

2.40 –Be Wiser Handicap Hurdles Cl2 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than twice over hurdles before
10/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Raced 113 or higher
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The call here is the Paul Nicholls runner – FRIEND OR FOE. This 4 year-old bypassed Cheltenham and has been freshened up with 3 months off after winning well at Taunton at the end of December. The first-time tongue-tie is interesting too, while connections are clearly taking their time with him. However, with just three career runs can have more to offer, while he also gets in here with a light weight and even though this is harder, he also looks the sort to go onto better things. Of the rest, Elysees and Groveman are others to consider.

 

3.15 – EBF & TBA Mares´ “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/14 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 6 years-old
9/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/14 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/14 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
The last 12 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Nicky Henderson yard in recent years – with wins in 2010, 2011 and 2013, so their SHE MIGHT MIGHT looks interesting. This 6 year-old was brought down last time out when running a close third at the time at Ludlow and prior to that had gone well at Warwick and Sandown. The horse gets in here off the same mark as last time and with only five career runs over hurdles looks to have more to come. Annie Mc, Etamine Du Cochet and the consistent Off The Hook are others to consider, as is the useful-looking The White Mouse, who won well at Doncaster last time out. This is also a race the Oliver Sherwood camp have done well in over the years so their Millarville is worth a second look in the market too and the consistent So Lonely could be dangerous with only 10-3 to carry.

 

KELSO Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – EBF Mares’ Novices’ Chase (Qualifier For The EBF Mares’ Chase Series) Cl3 (5yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 33% record (5 from 15) with his chasers at the track
Trainer Michael Scudamore is 2 from 5 (40%) with his chasers at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 29% record with his chasers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: KALAHARI QUEEN comes from the in-form Jamie Snowden yard and has done little wrong since returning from wind surgery, winning well last time at Wetherby and can follow-up here for a yard that has been having plenty of winners of late. My Old Gold can’t be discounted but the main danger to the selection looks to be from the Paul Nicholls runner – Kupatana. The yard has a decent 33% record with their chasers at the track and this 6 year-old is rated 3lbs higher than the selection too. However, she’s also failed to complete in three of her last four starts and that would still be a worry – I’d prefer to stick with the better jumper in Kalahari Queen.

 

2.25 – Bernhard Lighting Rig Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

7/8 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
6/8 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/8 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
6/8 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
6/8 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Aged 7 years-old
3/8 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some fair sorts on show here – Winston C was a former useful flat performer that has done well since switching to hurdles, but is up 11lbs for his last success so would need more, but is respected. Trainer Tom George often does well at the track (50% strike-rate) and is former CD winner – CHAMPAGNE CITY (e/w) – is certainly a player too. He was a decent second at Newbury last time out and is only 3lbs higher. He can go well, especially if the ground dries out just a tad. Albert’s Back, Joke Dancer and Ingleby Hollow are others to note, in what looks a very open contest.

 

3.00 – Liz Adams Memorial Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV4

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Aged 9 or younger
4/4 – Unplaced last time out
3/4 – Had raced at the track before
3/4 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
3/4 – Had run at Kelso before
2/4 – Ran at Kelso last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Tom George has a 60% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 44% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 years is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has a cracking record when sending their chasers to Kelso, so his BLUE FLIGHT looks interesting. This 6 year-old is a proven course winner at the track and heads here having won his last three in decent fashion. The last of those successes was over the classy Black Corton and even though some feel he might have been flattered by that, the longer trip here will help and he certainly looks a chaser on the up. He’s actually 2-from-2 at the track with another success in February too. The form of the yard is a slight worry, but here at the track they are 4 from 9 (44%) with their chasers. The 11 year-old Le Reve was a top winner at Sandown last time out but this looks harder and might just get found out by some younger legs. Other course winners, Rons Dream and Claud And Goldie are others to note, while Some Chaos was an impressive winner last time out at Wincanton and if coping with the 11lb rise can go well too.

 

3.35 – Paxton’s Exclusively Kverneland Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
3 of the last 5 winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Trainer Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The last 3 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
4 of the last 5 winners returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11-1 or more
2 of the last 3 winners were aged 7 years-old
1 winning favourite in the last 5 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were placed at Haydock last time out
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Lucinda Russell camp have won two of the last three renewals so Rivabodiva should be respected. Other yards that have done well in the past with their hurdlers at the track are Paul Nicholls, who won this race in 2016, Tom George & Keith Dalgleish – this trio could have Worthy Farm (Nicholls), Rocklander (George) & Taxmeifyoucan (Dalgleish) running for them. All three are respected, but WORTHY FARM and ROCKLANDER might be worth chancing. The former was a good winner last time at Ascot and despite being up 7lbs for that, connections have a 5lb claiming jockey on to offset most of that. The longer trip looks within range and he can go well. Rocklander has rather lost his way of late but as a result is starting to look well-handicapped. The first-time cheekpieces are interesting and the yard have a 50% record with their hurdlers at the track – if he can bounce back, he’s certainly got the form to take this.

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