Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 20th April 2019

Musselburgh and Haydock racing tips

It’s been a busy week for the ITV Racing cameras, but there us no let-up as the LIVE Saturday action continues from Musselburgh and Haydock.

We’ve a flat card at Musselburgh, with the competitive Scottish Sprint Cup the feature, among four LIVE races – did you know 11 of the last 15 Scottish Sprint Cup winners carried 9-1 or less in weight?

Then at Haydock we are jumping with three LIVE races on their Challenger Series Final day.

Plenty to look forward to and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.

Let’s get cracking!!


Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Easter Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

Two previous runnings
Lualiwa (Kevin Ryan) won the race in 2018
Twin Appeal (David Baron) won the race in 2017
Last two winners from stalls 3 & 4
Last two winners carried between 9-3 and 9-4
Last two winners priced between 11/2 and 6/1
Trainer Garry Moss has a 50% record (5 from 10) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 19% record (15 from 78) with her 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 2 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only two previous renewals – with the winners coming from stalls 3 and 4. Three Saints Bay (3) and Hayadh (4) are the horses coming out of those berths, while the last two winners carried 9-3 or 9-4. The Garry Moss yard (50%) and the Rebecca Bastiman (19%) camp also do well at the track with their 4+year-olds, so with that in mind the Moss-trained PORTH SWTAN and HAYADH catch the eye. Porth Swtan is a proven CD winner at the track and comes here having won well last time out at the track too. A 3lb rise looks fair for that last win he can be involved. Hayadh is also a past CD winner and was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Porth Swtan but gets in here on slightly better terms and with that run also coming off a 157-day break can be expected to come on for it. Of the rest, Raselasad and Lake Volta can be ruled out.

2.25 – Royal Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers William Haggas, John Quinn, Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston are the past winners
All previous winners carried between 8-0 and 8-12
All previous winners rated between 81-86 (inc)
All previous winners came from stalls 2-6 (inclusive)
All previous winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
3 of the last 4 winners won this off a 5+month break
3 of the last 4 winners returned between 6/1 and 11/1
3 of the last 4 winners won last time out
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 22% strike-rate (21 from 94) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 21% strike-rate (17 from 81) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine is just 1 from 42 with his 3 year-olds at the track.
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The William Haggas yard have a decent 32% record with their runners at the track and also won this race in 2014. Therefore, it’s hard to ignore their POLITICISE here. This 3 year-old has been gelded since his last run at Windsor, but with just three career runs should have more to come. He won well at Newbury last September over 7f but should be a much stronger horse with another winter on his back and it’s interesting the Newmarket yard are sending him so far north. Of the rest, the Richard Fahey yard (21%) and Mark Johnston team (22%) boast decent records at the track, so their Coolagh Forest and Reggae Runner have to enter the mix too, while On The Line has been running well for the Hugo Palmer camp and shouldn’t be far away either.

Saturday Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: 22nd Sept 2018


3.00 – Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f ITV4

14/15 – Won over 5f before
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 5
12/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/15 –  Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
9/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
8/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/15 – Trained by Mick Appleby
Line Of Reason (11/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 29% (6 from 21) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 62 with his older horses at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 9 year-old Line Of Reason won this prize in 2017 and showed he retains much of his ability with a fine second at Beverley last time out. He’s 3lbs lower than that win too and with just 8-12 in weight can go well at a nice price. 12 of the last 15 runners had run in the last 4 weeks too, so the likes of Marine James, A Momentofmadness, Final Venture, Copper Knight, Savalas, Harome & Eeh Bah Gum will have that to overcome. The Mick Appleby yard have a good record in the race and also have a 29% record with their 4 year-olds or older at the track. With that in mind, their SAAHEQ (e/w) gets the nod. This 5 year-old gets in here with just 8-3 in weight and with 9 of the last 15 winners also coming from a double-figure stall then draw 15 looks in his favour too. He’ll be fitter than most after a spell on the AW this winter and having won 2 of his 6 runs on the turf then his record on the green stuff isn’t bad either. Of the rest, CD winner PRIMO’S COMET (e/w) ticks a lot of the main trends too so might also be worth a small interest off it’s light weight.

 

3.35 Queen’s Cup Stakes (A Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers, Jim Goldie, Brian Ellison, John Patrick Shananhan & Archie Watson are the past winners
All 4 winners returned a double figure price (10/1 to 16/1)
All 4 winners DIDN’T win last time out
All 4 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
No winning favourites as yet
3 of the last 4 winners draw between 3-4 (inc)
3 of the last 4 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
Trainer Archie Watson has a 60% (3 from 5) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% (3 from 9) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 12.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four past runnings of this race to go on, but all four returned a double-figure price, were aged between 5-7 years-old and failed to win last time out. It’s also interesting that despite being run over 1m6f, three of the last 4 winners came from stalls 3-4 (inc) so there is a small pattern building up here too. Mirsaale has stall 3, while Kellys Dino has the 4 draw. However, it’s hard to get away from the 60% strike-rate that the Archie Watson yard have with their 4 year-olds + at the track, so their ULSTER (e/w) is the call. This 4 year-old carrying only 8-10 in weight and heads here fit from the AW after two wins and two seconds of late. Yes, this will be his first run on the grass, but there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit. The consistent Austrian School can get involved too, but has become a hard horse to win with – trainer Mark Johnston also has Hochfeld and LUCKY DEAL (e/w) in the race and of that pair the last-named can do best. He’s another that ticks a lot of the main stats and will be fit from the AW too. His turf record is decent too, with 10 runs and 7 top three finishes (2 wins).

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.05 – Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 1m7f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nigel Twiston-Davies, Tom George and Donald McCain have won the race before
All 3 previous winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
All 3 previous winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
All 3 winners ran 1 ½ months or less ago
All 3 winners rated between 115-119 (inc)
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
2 of the 3 winners were ridden by conditional claiming jockeys
Trainer Donald McCain is just 6 from 58 (10%) with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It’s interesting that all three previous winners of this race all won with a light weight, so the three at the foot of the weights – Peterborough, Tim Rocco and Teaser – who all carry 10-5 or less are worth a second look. Of that trio, the Oliver Greenall-trained TIM ROCCO (e/w) looks worthy of some support with jockey Paddy Brennan booked to ride. He’s won two of his last three and despite being a tad disappointing last time the Ludlow track might not have suited and back at a more galloping and open venue he should like it more – his recent wins came at Donny and Newcastle, which are both left-handed tracks, like Haydock. Of the rest, the Henry Oliver runner HIJAN is another to have on side after coming here off the back off two good wins. 2 of the last 3 runnings of this race have also been won by conditional jockeys – Jason Dixon rides this 6 year-old and claims a handy 7lbs. A 6lbs rise for his recent 4 ½ length win at Ludlow looks fair and he can go well again. Richard Johnson riding Cubswin is sure to be popular, while the consistent trio of Arthington, Cause Toujours and Red Tornado are others that can get in the mix.

2018 Betdaq Chase Trends and Free Tips


2.40 – Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Lucy Wadham, Alan King and Tom George have won the race before
No winning favourite yet
All 3 winners aged between 8-10 years-old
All 3 winners carried between 11-0 and 11-10
All 3 winners ran within the last month
All 3 winners rated between 125-132
All 3 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Tom George is just 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Tom George is only 2 from 22 with his chasers at the track so his Sumkindofking is overlooked based on that. Expect the front-running Loose Chips to take them along but at the age of 13 he’ll do well to stay there. It’s interesting that trainer Alan King runs two – Mahlermade and Salmanazar – both are consistent sorts, but don’t win enough at the moment for me. There was a sign that DUEL AT DAWN (e/w) was returning to some sort of form last time, when third at Exeter, so at a nice price he’s worth an each-way interest off a 2lb lower mark. Quarenta is another to like after his win at Warwick last time, but he only got home by a neck and a 5lb rise makes life harder. So, the safer call looks to be the only course inner in the field – THE PADDY PIE. This 6 year-old has finished in the top two in his last four and even though he could do with brushing up his jumping the step up to 3m should help on that score, with things happening a bit slower. 

 

3.15 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Nick Williams, Jonjo O’Neill and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
No winning favourite as yet
All 3 winners placed in the top 3 last time out
All 3 winners ran within the last 2 months
All 3 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old
All 3 winners returned between 8/1 and 16/1
2 of the 3 winners carried 10-9 or less
Trainer Emma Lavelle has a 33% record (5 from 15) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 50% record (2 from 4) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Henry Daly is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 12/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Tim’s TRIXTER (e/w) ran well for much of the way last time out at Sandown in a decent race and was actually only beaten 6 lengths. The longer trip looks fine and the better ground will certainly be a bonus. He’s off the same mark but in this slightly easier race feel he’s got more to come – all three of the recent winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old so this 6 year-old also ticks this trend. Of the rest, 2 of the last 3 winners also carried just 10-9 or less, so the three at the foot of the handicap here – Faithful Mount, Sliding Doors and Sunnytahliategan fit the bill on that score – it’s interesting that ALL three are also trained by Ian Williams! If the prices allow, it might be worth having a split stake interest in them all. Creep Desbois is another to note that’s been running well of late, while if you can forgive it’s last run then the Fergal O’Brien runner – Skidoosh – has certainly got the form to go well too – the Ben Pauling yard also have a decent 50% record with their hurdlers here and handle the last two mentioned. Finally, the other yard with a good record with their hurdlers at the track is Emma Lavelle (33%), so her BOREHAM BILL (e/w) is the other one to have on side. This 7 year-old was running well last time over a longer trip until just getting tired in the closing stages. The return to 3m will help and with only 9 runs over the sticks should have more to give.

 

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